Last weekend we saw Sepp Straka throw up a 9 under 62 in the fourth round of the John Deere Classic to secure his second win on the PGA Tour. Again I had outright bets finish inside the top five, which were foiled by Straka’s unbelievable effort on Sunday.
This week the PGA Tour is split with the Scottish Open and the Barbasol Championship happening, but all of the big names are at The Renaissance Club to try and get some reps in on a links style course before the Open Championship next weekend.
I am going to break down what we're going to see this weekend at the Scottish Open and give out my best bets for the weekend.
Tournament Information:
The Scottish Open The Scottish Open was established back in 1972, and has been held at various locations throughout the country since that time. Since 2019, the Scottish Open has been held at the Renaissance Club in North Berwick, on the north east coast of the United Kingdom.
This is another 72-hole stroke play event, with the top 65 golfers making the cut after 36 holes, this event serves as the last chance for players to qualify for the Open Championship next week. Along with being an Open Championship qualifier, the Scottish Open is one of five Rolex series events, which identifies it as one of Europe’s elite events, and in recent years, the tournament has been primarily held on links courses to attract players looking to gain experience on links courses the week before the Open Championship.
Detailed Scorecard:
Past 5 Winners @ The Renaissance Club:
Course Information:
The Renaissance Club is a par 70 links style golf course playing 7237 yards. It consists of 5 par 3’s, which is the ninth shortest average set of par 3’s we have seen on tour since 2015, but this set of par 3’s is the 10th hardest on tour since 2015. It has 3 par 5s, all of which are listed over 576 yards. 10 par 4’s round out this par 70 track, with six of them playing over 460 yards.
The entire course is 100% red fescue grass, which is very uncommon to see on the PGA tour.The Renaissance Club has massive greens with tons of slope and angulation, which are also very slow, which run at a 10 on the stimpmeter.
Although this is a links style course with seaside location, that typically plays firm and is susceptible to wind, there are some parkland crossovers to the layout of this course as there are numerous forested areas throughout the course, and only four holes on the ocean. As well as thick rough off the fairway, as opposed to longer wispy fescue found on the sides of fairways on traditional links courses.
The main defense of this course, as with most links courses, are the winds. If it starts blowing this weekend, we're going to see a winning score like 2022 and 2020 between -7 and -11. If conditions are calm for most of the weekend, we could see a finishing score between -18 and -22, but that doesn’t look likely with the early week weather report.
Players Path To Victory:
SG: Ball Striking
Ball Striking is going to be the key to players' success this weekend. At the time of writing, there is rain in the forecast over the course every day leading up to the event, and there is a chance of rain every day the event will be played. This could soften up these tough links conditions, which will create a lot more access to these flags.
But even if we see the ball rolling out, players will need to utilize every shot in the bag, working with the terrain of the golf course, as these links courses can turn good shots bad, and bad shots worse if not played properly. Long putts aren’t easy to come by here, proximity to the hole on approach is going to be huge this weekend.
SG: Off The Tee
This course doesn’t require a ton of distance, but it is a course where long hitters will have a huge advantage if they can keep the ball in or around the edges on the fairway. Venturing too far off the beaten path, the fescue rough getting longer which can create some ugly lies. On top of that’ distance control is already so important on a course like this, you don’t want to be hitting out of this fescue rough, having to judge the spin it will come out with.
SG: Around The Green / 3-Putt Avoidance:
With the massive greens at The Renaissance Club, lag putting along with a creative short game is going to be needed to avoid losing strokes at this venue. The links style courses always have lots of slope and angulation on and around the greens to make it difficult to get the ball to stop near the hole. If conditions are calm, it will be extremely important to avoid dropping strokes as the scoring can get quite low, but if the winds start howling, bogey avoidance will keep players in contention this weekend.
Official Picks:
Outrights (Total Risk: 0.54u - All Plays to Win 4.00u):
Tommy Fleetwood (+2200) Bet365
Matthew Fitzpatrick (+2200) Bet365
Tyrrell Hatton (+2200) Bet365
Placements: (Total Risk:6.00u - All Plays Risking 1.00u, Unless Specified)
Tommy Fleetwood Top 20 Finish (+125) Bet365
Fleetwood is coming off of a missed cut at the travellers championship, but had played a long stretch of golf in the USA, and could have been looking forward to going back to Europe for some time off before gearing up for this event. Prior to the Travelers Championship, Fleetwood had finished inside the top 20 in five of his last six starts on tour. He entered play this weekend ranking No.10 in the field in average career strokes gained ball striking per round on links style courses, and No.3 in total strokes gained in that same split. Fleetwood has two top 10 finishes in three trips to this venue, I’m thinking he will have another good week here coming out of his short break.
Matthew Fitzpatrick Top 20 Finish (+125) Bet365
Fitzpatrick has a great track record at The Renaissance Club, he has finished inside the top 20 in three of his four trips to this venue, boasting two straight top 10 finishes in the Scottish Open in back to back years. Fitzy has also been hitting form recently finishing inside the top 20 in six of his last nine starts on tour. I think this course plays to his strengths, and that’s why he has had so much success here. I think we're going to see it again this weekend.
Tyrrell Hatton Top 20 Finish (+125) Bet365
Hatton has had a phenomenal 2023 campaign thus far, he has finished inside the top 20 in 11 of his 18 starts this season, and has finished inside the top 20 in six of his last seven starts this season. Hatton has exceptional ball striking numbers on approach, and around the greens, which should keep him in contention this weekend. Hatton also ranks No.5 on tour in strokes gained putting this season, and if he has the flat stick working this weekend, I think he has the chance to take this event.
Justin Rose Top 30 Finish (+115) Bet365
Rose struggled at the Scottish Open last year, which is his only trip to this event in the last five years, but Rose struggled all of last year, but those struggles appear to be behind him. So far in 2023, Rose has 12 top 30 finishes in 17 professional starts and has finished inside the top 30 in seven of his last nine starts. Rose ranks No.5 in the field in average career total strokes gained per round on links style courses, and No.6 in strokes gained putting in that same split. Rose has been a money maker for me over the last few months, I am just going to keep riding the wave.
Alex Smalley Top 40 Finish (+105) Bet365
Smalley is currently in the middle of one of the best stretches of professional golf he has had, he is coming off of a T2 finish at the John Deere Classic, and has six top 40 finishes in his last eight starts on tour. He doesn’t have much experience playing across the pond, but did finish T10th last year at this venue. The way he has been striking the ball, I think his success continues again this weekend.
Aaron Rai Top 40 Finish (+105) Bet365
Rai is another guy playing his best golf since joining the PGA Tour fulltime in 2021, he has finished inside the top 30 in four of his last five starts on tour, and has two top 40 finishes at this event in four trips to The Renaissance Club, which also includes his win at this venue in 2020. Rai is ranked No. 7 in this field in SG: Ball Striking, and No.3 in SG: Tee To Green over the last 30, which I think keeps him in the mix this weekend.
Make sure to follow me on Twitter to stay up to date with all the picks I am making throughout the weekend!
Last weekend we saw Sepp Straka throw up a 9 under 62 in the fourth round of the John Deere Classic to secure his second win on the PGA Tour. Again I had outright bets finish inside the top five, which were foiled by Straka’s unbelievable effort on Sunday.
This week the PGA Tour is split with the Scottish Open and the Barbasol Championship happening, but all of the big names are at The Renaissance Club to try and get some reps in on a links style course before the Open Championship next weekend.
I am going to break down what we're going to see this weekend at the Scottish Open and give out my best bets for the weekend.
Tournament Information:
The Scottish Open The Scottish Open was established back in 1972, and has been held at various locations throughout the country since that time. Since 2019, the Scottish Open has been held at the Renaissance Club in North Berwick, on the north east coast of the United Kingdom.
This is another 72-hole stroke play event, with the top 65 golfers making the cut after 36 holes, this event serves as the last chance for players to qualify for the Open Championship next week. Along with being an Open Championship qualifier, the Scottish Open is one of five Rolex series events, which identifies it as one of Europe’s elite events, and in recent years, the tournament has been primarily held on links courses to attract players looking to gain experience on links courses the week before the Open Championship.
Detailed Scorecard:
Past 5 Winners @ The Renaissance Club:
Course Information:
The Renaissance Club is a par 70 links style golf course playing 7237 yards. It consists of 5 par 3’s, which is the ninth shortest average set of par 3’s we have seen on tour since 2015, but this set of par 3’s is the 10th hardest on tour since 2015. It has 3 par 5s, all of which are listed over 576 yards. 10 par 4’s round out this par 70 track, with six of them playing over 460 yards.
The entire course is 100% red fescue grass, which is very uncommon to see on the PGA tour.The Renaissance Club has massive greens with tons of slope and angulation, which are also very slow, which run at a 10 on the stimpmeter.
Although this is a links style course with seaside location, that typically plays firm and is susceptible to wind, there are some parkland crossovers to the layout of this course as there are numerous forested areas throughout the course, and only four holes on the ocean. As well as thick rough off the fairway, as opposed to longer wispy fescue found on the sides of fairways on traditional links courses.
The main defense of this course, as with most links courses, are the winds. If it starts blowing this weekend, we're going to see a winning score like 2022 and 2020 between -7 and -11. If conditions are calm for most of the weekend, we could see a finishing score between -18 and -22, but that doesn’t look likely with the early week weather report.
Players Path To Victory:
SG: Ball Striking
Ball Striking is going to be the key to players' success this weekend. At the time of writing, there is rain in the forecast over the course every day leading up to the event, and there is a chance of rain every day the event will be played. This could soften up these tough links conditions, which will create a lot more access to these flags.
But even if we see the ball rolling out, players will need to utilize every shot in the bag, working with the terrain of the golf course, as these links courses can turn good shots bad, and bad shots worse if not played properly. Long putts aren’t easy to come by here, proximity to the hole on approach is going to be huge this weekend.
SG: Off The Tee
This course doesn’t require a ton of distance, but it is a course where long hitters will have a huge advantage if they can keep the ball in or around the edges on the fairway. Venturing too far off the beaten path, the fescue rough getting longer which can create some ugly lies. On top of that’ distance control is already so important on a course like this, you don’t want to be hitting out of this fescue rough, having to judge the spin it will come out with.
SG: Around The Green / 3-Putt Avoidance:
With the massive greens at The Renaissance Club, lag putting along with a creative short game is going to be needed to avoid losing strokes at this venue. The links style courses always have lots of slope and angulation on and around the greens to make it difficult to get the ball to stop near the hole. If conditions are calm, it will be extremely important to avoid dropping strokes as the scoring can get quite low, but if the winds start howling, bogey avoidance will keep players in contention this weekend.
Official Picks:
Outrights (Total Risk: 0.54u - All Plays to Win 4.00u):
Tommy Fleetwood (+2200) Bet365
Matthew Fitzpatrick (+2200) Bet365
Tyrrell Hatton (+2200) Bet365
Placements: (Total Risk:6.00u - All Plays Risking 1.00u, Unless Specified)
Tommy Fleetwood Top 20 Finish (+125) Bet365
Fleetwood is coming off of a missed cut at the travellers championship, but had played a long stretch of golf in the USA, and could have been looking forward to going back to Europe for some time off before gearing up for this event. Prior to the Travelers Championship, Fleetwood had finished inside the top 20 in five of his last six starts on tour. He entered play this weekend ranking No.10 in the field in average career strokes gained ball striking per round on links style courses, and No.3 in total strokes gained in that same split. Fleetwood has two top 10 finishes in three trips to this venue, I’m thinking he will have another good week here coming out of his short break.
Matthew Fitzpatrick Top 20 Finish (+125) Bet365
Fitzpatrick has a great track record at The Renaissance Club, he has finished inside the top 20 in three of his four trips to this venue, boasting two straight top 10 finishes in the Scottish Open in back to back years. Fitzy has also been hitting form recently finishing inside the top 20 in six of his last nine starts on tour. I think this course plays to his strengths, and that’s why he has had so much success here. I think we're going to see it again this weekend.
Tyrrell Hatton Top 20 Finish (+125) Bet365
Hatton has had a phenomenal 2023 campaign thus far, he has finished inside the top 20 in 11 of his 18 starts this season, and has finished inside the top 20 in six of his last seven starts this season. Hatton has exceptional ball striking numbers on approach, and around the greens, which should keep him in contention this weekend. Hatton also ranks No.5 on tour in strokes gained putting this season, and if he has the flat stick working this weekend, I think he has the chance to take this event.
Justin Rose Top 30 Finish (+115) Bet365
Rose struggled at the Scottish Open last year, which is his only trip to this event in the last five years, but Rose struggled all of last year, but those struggles appear to be behind him. So far in 2023, Rose has 12 top 30 finishes in 17 professional starts and has finished inside the top 30 in seven of his last nine starts. Rose ranks No.5 in the field in average career total strokes gained per round on links style courses, and No.6 in strokes gained putting in that same split. Rose has been a money maker for me over the last few months, I am just going to keep riding the wave.
Alex Smalley Top 40 Finish (+105) Bet365
Smalley is currently in the middle of one of the best stretches of professional golf he has had, he is coming off of a T2 finish at the John Deere Classic, and has six top 40 finishes in his last eight starts on tour. He doesn’t have much experience playing across the pond, but did finish T10th last year at this venue. The way he has been striking the ball, I think his success continues again this weekend.
Aaron Rai Top 40 Finish (+105) Bet365
Rai is another guy playing his best golf since joining the PGA Tour fulltime in 2021, he has finished inside the top 30 in four of his last five starts on tour, and has two top 40 finishes at this event in four trips to The Renaissance Club, which also includes his win at this venue in 2020. Rai is ranked No. 7 in this field in SG: Ball Striking, and No.3 in SG: Tee To Green over the last 30, which I think keeps him in the mix this weekend.
Make sure to follow me on Twitter to stay up to date with all the picks I am making throughout the weekend!
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