What a great weekend it was at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, we saw Rickie Fowler win his six career PGA Event, breaking a multiyear drought. While I was celebrating my outright ticket cashing, Rickie shared a beautiful moment with his wife and daughter following the win he has been searching for since the last time he won in 2019.
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I don’t think there is going to be quite as much magic this week, the John Deere Classic traditionally draws very weak fields, but sometimes that can make it fun to bet when there are very few clear favorites, three of the last four winners have won at 50/1 odds or longer, it's a great week for longshots if you want to throw some darts.
Tournament Information:
The John Deere Classic is held annually at TPC Deere Run. It is another 72 hole stroke play event with the top 65 players making it into the weekend. This event traditionally has a weaker field as most of the players who have qualified for the British Open are starting to travel there for a prep week at the Scottish Open before the major championship. But for those who have yet to qualify, the John Deere Classic serves as one of the last chances to qualify for the oldest tournament in golf.
Detailed Scorecard:
Past 5 Winners Strokes Gained @ TPC Deere Run
Course Information:
TPC Deere Run is a par 71 track that plays about 7,289 yards. Length is helpful off of the tee as always, but this course is all about accuracy off the tee. The landing areas are littered with fairway bunkers as well as some well placed trees that will block out certain parts of the fairway.
Once players set themselves up off the tee, the course is easy. There are only three par 4’s playing over 460 yards, one par three over 220 yards and all three par 5’s are under 600 yards on the card.
There are plenty of doglegs on the course, which emphasizes the need for setting yourself up off of the tee, but TPC Deere Run does have fairly wide fairways so this event usually turns into a pitch and putt. This weekend 44 percent of approaches will be hit from inside 150 yards and 74.3 percent of approaches will be hit from inside 200 yards. This course doesn’t demand a lot, although the field is weak these will be easy shots for the pros, ball striking and distance control is going to be key this weekend.
We are going to see smaller green complexes again, similar to the ones we saw last weekend at Detroit Golf Club and a similar bentgrass seed. The greens have been bentgrass in seven straight, but the three prior weeks it has been mixed with a poa annua seed, so there will be small adjustments to be made here.
The only thing that saves this course is usually the poor quality of the field, but even then we have seen this event end with a winning score of -27in 2018. Birdies are going to be the name of the game here, it is going to be another very low week.
Players Path To Victory:
Look, there isn’t much to this course in the way of defence, which creates multiple ways to win on this course, but the two necessary qualities to win at this course are ball striking and a hot putter.
SG: Ball Striking
Three of the past four winners at TPC Deere Run have finished inside the top five in strokes gained ball striking, the outlier there being Dylan Frittelli who finished 21st in that category the year he won the event. All of these guys have either had a great week off the tee or on approach. This course hasn’t had a winning score of -15 since 1997, every year since has been lower, with the winner often needing to shoot -20 or lower. To stay in the mix here players have to be giving them self quality birdie looks consistently.
SG: Putting:
Three of the last four winners at this venue have finished inside the top 20 in strokes gained putting, the outlier there being J.T Poston, the defending champ who finished second in SG: Ball Striking, while still having a solid week with the putter gaining +0.56 strokes on the greens, finishing 34th in the field in strokes gained putting. On birdiefest courses related to giving yourself birdie looks, is having to make those birdie putts. These greens at TPC Deere Run are usually very receptive, this thing will turn into a putting contest come the weekend.
Official Picks:
Outright (Total Risk: 0.74u - All Plays to Win 4.00u):
Henley is first in total strokes gained in the field over the last 90 days, and is fifth in total strokes gained over the last 30 days. He has also had a bunch of success at this venue, gaining the second most strokes per round of players in this field at TPC Deere Run.
Henley has been very good on easier courses this season, he ranks 3rd in strokes gained ball striking on courses with an easy rating from BetSperts. Henley isn’t known as a great putter, but he has gained strokes on the greens in six of his last eight starts on tour, and has finished inside the top 20 in eight of his last nine starts, he is starting to feel overdue for a win.
McCarthy is the 12th ranked player on DataGolf’s “trending” table, and the highest ranked golfer in this field. McCarthy has gained +9.57 strokes with his putting in his last eight starts on tour, and has finished inside the top 20 in nine of his last 14 starts on tour, boasting four top 10 finishes over that stretch.
McCarthy is 22nd in the field in total strokes gained, and eighth in strokes gained putting on courses given an “easy” rating by BetSperts, and he has gained strokes on approach in four of his last five starts on tour. His recent ball striking and lights out putter might be a lethal combination this week, with the quality of this field, this could be the week McCarthy is finally able to run away with an event, and earn his first PGA Tour victory.
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Placements: (Total Risk:6.00u - All Plays Risking 1.00u - Unless Specified)
More above.
Bet365 has dead heat rules, but I don’t think that will be an issue with him, he is one of the best and most consistent ball strikers in this field. I think he’ll be one of the guys giving himself a ton of birdie looks, and I think he’ll convert enough of them to stay in the mix this weekend.
Grillo has been playing some great golf recently, he has finished inside the top 20 in four of his last eight starts on tour, and has made the cut in six of his last eight. The two missed cuts came in the stacked major championship fields.
Grillo is typically an inconsistent golfer, but it seems to come in waves, but he seems to shine on these easier courses. So far this season, Grillo has the most total strokes gained on course with an “easy” rating from Betsperts, and is fifth in strokes gained putting on bentgrass. He has gained strokes off of the tee in three straight events and on approach in six of his last eight starts. He finished in a tie for second last year. I think this course fits his game well.
Smalley has been playing some good golf recently, he has finished inside the top 30 in four of his last seven starts on tour, and is 19th in this field in total strokes gained over the last 30 days, and is 19th in the field in total strokes gained on courses given an “easy” rating by BetSperts.
Smalley has gained strokes on approach in 10 of his last 11 starts, and has made the cut in both his appearances at TPC Deere Run, finishing in a tie for 16th last year in his first full year on the PGA Tour. I think Smalley is due for a big weekend here he leads this field in SG: Approach over everyone’s last eight rounds. Another great ball striking week, he’ll be in the mix.
Kuest has qualified for four PGA events through the Monday qualifier this season, so he is used to having to go low with plenty of pressure on the line. Kuest is coming off of a T4 finish at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, and with that finish the 2020 all-american needs a T76 finish this weekend at the John Deere to earn special temporary membership to the PGA tour.
Knowing he has this much to play for, I don’t think he will be quite as aggressive as some of these players at the end of the weekend, so I am not going to take a shot at the outright here, but he has finished inside the top 20 in two of his four PGA starts and has made the cut in three of four. Kuest was 11th in the field last weekend in SG: Ball Striking and 19th in SG: Putting. I’m thinking he can have another good week on another easy course in a very weak field.
Kizzire has some great history here at TPC Deere Run, he has finished inside the top 30 in four straight trips to the John Deere Classic, but the concern here is his recent play. He has only made three of his last five cuts, and has only finished inside the top 40 in two of those five events. But looking back at his career, he was having inconsistent results leading up to all four of these recent appearances at the John Deere Classic. This course must just fit his eye, he is fifth in the field in average total strokes gained per round at TPC Deere Run. I think he’ll be able to continue his success here this weekend at this course in a much weaker field than the ones he has been playing in recently.
Matchup:
It feels like Schenk is going to be one of the public favorites this weekend at TPC Deere Run, and that is for good reason as he boasts three top 10 finishes in his last five starts on tour. But Schenk can be very streaky, which is shown by him missing the cut in five of his last eight starts on tour, which is what ultimately kept me away from betting his outright and placements.
However, I do think he will be able to have a better weekend than Kieth Mitchell who is on the other side of this matchup. Mitchell has been slightly more consistent than Schenk recently, making six of his last seven cuts, but only having one top 10, and one top 20 over that stretch.
Both of these guys have had some success on this course, but Schenk has had more recent success at this event having finished inside the top 10 in two of the last three years. Mitchell has only played this course twice, finishing T7 back in 2018, but missed the cut in 2021.
Neither of these guys are known for lighting it up on easy courses, but Schenk has the edge over Mitchell in a handful of strokes gained categories that I will list below…
Adam Schenk: No.16 / Keith Mitchell: No.34
Adam Schenk: No.35 / Keith Mitchell: No.117
Adam Schenk: No.42 / Keith Mitchell: No.59
On top of that, Schenk has gained strokes in seven straight starts on approach, whereas Mitchell has lost strokes on approach in eight of his last nine events. Schenk has also gained strokes with his putter in three of his last four events, Mitchell hasn’t made a start since the US Open in the first week of June, there might be some rust to knock off.
I am just going to trust the better ball striker here, against a guy who is just trying to find his swing again.
What a great weekend it was at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, we saw Rickie Fowler win his six career PGA Event, breaking a multiyear drought. While I was celebrating my outright ticket cashing, Rickie shared a beautiful moment with his wife and daughter following the win he has been searching for since the last time he won in 2019.
I don’t think there is going to be quite as much magic this week, the John Deere Classic traditionally draws very weak fields, but sometimes that can make it fun to bet when there are very few clear favorites, three of the last four winners have won at 50/1 odds or longer, it's a great week for longshots if you want to throw some darts.
Tournament Information:
The John Deere Classic is held annually at TPC Deere Run. It is another 72 hole stroke play event with the top 65 players making it into the weekend. This event traditionally has a weaker field as most of the players who have qualified for the British Open are starting to travel there for a prep week at the Scottish Open before the major championship. But for those who have yet to qualify, the John Deere Classic serves as one of the last chances to qualify for the oldest tournament in golf.
Detailed Scorecard:
Past 5 Winners Strokes Gained @ TPC Deere Run
Course Information:
TPC Deere Run is a par 71 track that plays about 7,289 yards. Length is helpful off of the tee as always, but this course is all about accuracy off the tee. The landing areas are littered with fairway bunkers as well as some well placed trees that will block out certain parts of the fairway.
Once players set themselves up off the tee, the course is easy. There are only three par 4’s playing over 460 yards, one par three over 220 yards and all three par 5’s are under 600 yards on the card.
There are plenty of doglegs on the course, which emphasizes the need for setting yourself up off of the tee, but TPC Deere Run does have fairly wide fairways so this event usually turns into a pitch and putt. This weekend 44 percent of approaches will be hit from inside 150 yards and 74.3 percent of approaches will be hit from inside 200 yards. This course doesn’t demand a lot, although the field is weak these will be easy shots for the pros, ball striking and distance control is going to be key this weekend.
We are going to see smaller green complexes again, similar to the ones we saw last weekend at Detroit Golf Club and a similar bentgrass seed. The greens have been bentgrass in seven straight, but the three prior weeks it has been mixed with a poa annua seed, so there will be small adjustments to be made here.
The only thing that saves this course is usually the poor quality of the field, but even then we have seen this event end with a winning score of -27in 2018. Birdies are going to be the name of the game here, it is going to be another very low week.
Players Path To Victory:
Look, there isn’t much to this course in the way of defence, which creates multiple ways to win on this course, but the two necessary qualities to win at this course are ball striking and a hot putter.
SG: Ball Striking
Three of the past four winners at TPC Deere Run have finished inside the top five in strokes gained ball striking, the outlier there being Dylan Frittelli who finished 21st in that category the year he won the event. All of these guys have either had a great week off the tee or on approach. This course hasn’t had a winning score of -15 since 1997, every year since has been lower, with the winner often needing to shoot -20 or lower. To stay in the mix here players have to be giving them self quality birdie looks consistently.
SG: Putting:
Three of the last four winners at this venue have finished inside the top 20 in strokes gained putting, the outlier there being J.T Poston, the defending champ who finished second in SG: Ball Striking, while still having a solid week with the putter gaining +0.56 strokes on the greens, finishing 34th in the field in strokes gained putting. On birdiefest courses related to giving yourself birdie looks, is having to make those birdie putts. These greens at TPC Deere Run are usually very receptive, this thing will turn into a putting contest come the weekend.
Official Picks:
Outright (Total Risk: 0.74u - All Plays to Win 4.00u):
Russell Henley (+1400) — Boosted: DraftKings +300 Odds Surge — (+1700)
Henley is first in total strokes gained in the field over the last 90 days, and is fifth in total strokes gained over the last 30 days. He has also had a bunch of success at this venue, gaining the second most strokes per round of players in this field at TPC Deere Run.
Henley has been very good on easier courses this season, he ranks 3rd in strokes gained ball striking on courses with an easy rating from BetSperts. Henley isn’t known as a great putter, but he has gained strokes on the greens in six of his last eight starts on tour, and has finished inside the top 20 in eight of his last nine starts, he is starting to feel overdue for a win.
Denny McCarthy (+1600) Fanduel
McCarthy is the 12th ranked player on DataGolf’s “trending” table, and the highest ranked golfer in this field. McCarthy has gained +9.57 strokes with his putting in his last eight starts on tour, and has finished inside the top 20 in nine of his last 14 starts on tour, boasting four top 10 finishes over that stretch.
McCarthy is 22nd in the field in total strokes gained, and eighth in strokes gained putting on courses given an “easy” rating by BetSperts, and he has gained strokes on approach in four of his last five starts on tour. His recent ball striking and lights out putter might be a lethal combination this week, with the quality of this field, this could be the week McCarthy is finally able to run away with an event, and earn his first PGA Tour victory.
Emiliano Grillo (+3100) Fanduel
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Alex Smalley (+4000) Pointsbet
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Placements: (Total Risk:6.00u - All Plays Risking 1.00u - Unless Specified)
Denny McCarthy Top 10 Finish (+180) - Risking 0.50u
More above.
Russell Henley Top 20 Finish (+110) Bet365 / Top10 Finish (+180) DraftKings - Risking 0.50u
Bet365 has dead heat rules, but I don’t think that will be an issue with him, he is one of the best and most consistent ball strikers in this field. I think he’ll be one of the guys giving himself a ton of birdie looks, and I think he’ll convert enough of them to stay in the mix this weekend.
Emiliano Grillo Top 20 Finish (+150) DraftKings
Grillo has been playing some great golf recently, he has finished inside the top 20 in four of his last eight starts on tour, and has made the cut in six of his last eight. The two missed cuts came in the stacked major championship fields.
Grillo is typically an inconsistent golfer, but it seems to come in waves, but he seems to shine on these easier courses. So far this season, Grillo has the most total strokes gained on course with an “easy” rating from Betsperts, and is fifth in strokes gained putting on bentgrass. He has gained strokes off of the tee in three straight events and on approach in six of his last eight starts. He finished in a tie for second last year. I think this course fits his game well.
Alex Smalley Top 30 Finish (+105) DraftKings
Smalley has been playing some good golf recently, he has finished inside the top 30 in four of his last seven starts on tour, and is 19th in this field in total strokes gained over the last 30 days, and is 19th in the field in total strokes gained on courses given an “easy” rating by BetSperts.
Smalley has gained strokes on approach in 10 of his last 11 starts, and has made the cut in both his appearances at TPC Deere Run, finishing in a tie for 16th last year in his first full year on the PGA Tour. I think Smalley is due for a big weekend here he leads this field in SG: Approach over everyone’s last eight rounds. Another great ball striking week, he’ll be in the mix.
Peter Kuest Top 40 Finish (+125) DraftKings
Kuest has qualified for four PGA events through the Monday qualifier this season, so he is used to having to go low with plenty of pressure on the line. Kuest is coming off of a T4 finish at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, and with that finish the 2020 all-american needs a T76 finish this weekend at the John Deere to earn special temporary membership to the PGA tour.
Knowing he has this much to play for, I don’t think he will be quite as aggressive as some of these players at the end of the weekend, so I am not going to take a shot at the outright here, but he has finished inside the top 20 in two of his four PGA starts and has made the cut in three of four. Kuest was 11th in the field last weekend in SG: Ball Striking and 19th in SG: Putting. I’m thinking he can have another good week on another easy course in a very weak field.
Patton Kizzire Top 40 Finish (+130) DraftKings
Kizzire has some great history here at TPC Deere Run, he has finished inside the top 30 in four straight trips to the John Deere Classic, but the concern here is his recent play. He has only made three of his last five cuts, and has only finished inside the top 40 in two of those five events. But looking back at his career, he was having inconsistent results leading up to all four of these recent appearances at the John Deere Classic. This course must just fit his eye, he is fifth in the field in average total strokes gained per round at TPC Deere Run. I think he’ll be able to continue his success here this weekend at this course in a much weaker field than the ones he has been playing in recently.
Matchup:
Adam Schenk (-120) vs. Keith Mitchell - 72 Hole Matchup (Tie Voids) - Bet365 - To Win 1.00u
It feels like Schenk is going to be one of the public favorites this weekend at TPC Deere Run, and that is for good reason as he boasts three top 10 finishes in his last five starts on tour. But Schenk can be very streaky, which is shown by him missing the cut in five of his last eight starts on tour, which is what ultimately kept me away from betting his outright and placements.
However, I do think he will be able to have a better weekend than Kieth Mitchell who is on the other side of this matchup. Mitchell has been slightly more consistent than Schenk recently, making six of his last seven cuts, but only having one top 10, and one top 20 over that stretch.
Both of these guys have had some success on this course, but Schenk has had more recent success at this event having finished inside the top 10 in two of the last three years. Mitchell has only played this course twice, finishing T7 back in 2018, but missed the cut in 2021.
Neither of these guys are known for lighting it up on easy courses, but Schenk has the edge over Mitchell in a handful of strokes gained categories that I will list below…
Total Strokes Gained Last 30 Days (Rank in Field)
Adam Schenk: No.16 / Keith Mitchell: No.34
Total Strokes Gained Last 90 Days (Rank In Field)
Adam Schenk: No.35 / Keith Mitchell: No.117
Strokes Gained: Putting - Bentgrass (Rank In Field)
Adam Schenk: No.42 / Keith Mitchell: No.59
On top of that, Schenk has gained strokes in seven straight starts on approach, whereas Mitchell has lost strokes on approach in eight of his last nine events. Schenk has also gained strokes with his putter in three of his last four events, Mitchell hasn’t made a start since the US Open in the first week of June, there might be some rust to knock off.
I am just going to trust the better ball striker here, against a guy who is just trying to find his swing again.
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