What a great weekend at the Travelers Championship, we saw Keegan Bradley run away with the event early, but I managed to cash three of my four placement bets, and all three 3-Ball bets that I placed. This week the tour shifts to Michigan for the Rocket Mortgage Classic at Detroit Golf Club, this should be another birdiefest, let’s break this course down and then we’ll get to the picks for the weekend.
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Tournament Information:
The Rocket Mortgage Classic is another straight up 72 hole stroke play event that is relatively new as far as PGA Events go, this event first debuted on tour in 2019. The Rocket Mortgage Classic replaced the Quicken Loans National on the PGA, and has found its home at the Detroit Golf Club, which is now the flattest course on the PGA Tour, creating some very low scoring finishes.
Detailed Scorecard:
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Past 5 Winners & Strokes Gained Analysis:
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Course Overview:
Detroit Golf Club is a 7370 yard par 72 tree lined parkland track located inside of Detroit's city limits. This is the flattest course played on the PGA tour, and also the 8th easiest. This track has 10 par 4’s, nine of which play under 460 yards. In traditional par 72 fashion this course also has four par 3’s and four par 5’s, with three of the par 5’s being amongst the easiest on the PGA Tour.
To go along with being the flattest, it is also one of the straightest on the PGA Tour, it only has two angled doglegs on the whole course and has the 15th widest fairways. With very little trouble off of the side of these fairways, and no forced layups, players have the freedom to pull drivers off almost every tee block.
The only defence this course has are the small greens, which are 5,150 square feet on average, which ranks 12th smallest played on tour, and the four inch bluegrass rough. The strategy here is extremely simple… hit it as far as you can, stick is close, make the putt. The birds are going to be all over the place this weekend, the player that wins this thing will have to put four consecutive extremely low rounds together, this venue guarantees we're going to see a shoot out.
Keys To Victory:
Strokes Gained: Approach:
Obviously, in an event where a ton of birdies are going to be made, the approach game is going to be so important in creating good looks at birdie putts. But the designers of Detroit Golf Club did a great job mixing up the lengths of the holes to create a bunch of different approach distances, meaning the winner will have to be comfortable approaching the greens with wedges, all the way out to their long irons.
Coupled with the small greens players will be hitting into, the approach game is going to have to be hot, for anyone who will be in contention this weekend.
Driving Distance:
Long and straight should always be the goal, but this a course where you can afford to be a little wild off of the tee, Detroit Golf Club has the 2nd fewest penalty strokes on the PGA tour, giving players tons of freedom off of the tee.
Distance isn’t necessarily required on the track, but the extra length always helps create shorter approach shots into these already small greens, and on top of that there is rain forecasted prior and during the event, with Detroit Golf Club being so flat, any amount of rain could soften this track up getting taking away the midsummer role some of these shorter hitters need to keep up with the big swingers on tour.
Strokes Gained: Putting
With how little trouble there is off the tee at Detroit Golf Club this event essentially becomes a pitch and putt. These greens are a mix of a bentgrass and poa seed that has been played on tour for three weeks straight, and there has been bentgrass seed in play for five straight weeks, all of these players should have some comfortability on these greens this weekend, but converting birdie chances is going to be the big difference maker this weekend.
Expected Weather:
Thursday: 81*F | 7mph E Wind | 20% POP
Friday: 81*F | 7mph E Wind | 70% POP | Chances of Thunderstorms
Saturday: 81*F | 5mph NE Wind | 60% POP
Sunday: 82*F | 8mph NW Wind | 40% POP
If it’s going to rain, this course will get extremely soft, greens will be receptive, and drives will not roll out. Inclement weather will be this course's only defence, but it doesn’t appear that even with rain forecasted the winds will stay fairly calm.
Official Picks:
Outrights: To Win 4.00u \ Placements: To Win 4.00u
Fowler is emerging as one of the clear candidates for comeback player of the year on the PGA Tour, between the 2021 and 2022 seasons Fowler only had nine top 30 finishes, but in 2023 alone Fowler has 14 top 20 finishes in 19 starts on tour, including three top 10 finishes in his last four starts and 10 top 20 finishes in his last 11 starts.
Fowler has gained distance on the field off the tee in every start this year on tour but one, and ranks 64th in strokes gained off the tee on tour. He also ranks seventh on tour in strokes gained approaching the green, and 17th in birdie conversion percentage putting, it really feels like Fowler is trending towards his first win on tour since 2019, with a weaker field this week, I think this could be the one he takes home.
Hoping back on the Sungjae train, he played well last weekend at the Travelers Championship and let's face it... I addicted to betting on this guy.
Hun An has six top 40 finishes in his last eight events, he was cut last weekend at the Travelers Championship, but I think Detroit Golf Club sets up much nicer for his game. Hun An is fifth on tour in average driving distance, and is above the tour average in all approach categories inside of 200 yards.
On top of that he ranks third on tour in strokes gained around the green which should keep him in the mix most of the weekend to go along with his 22.65% birdie or better percentage which ranks 35th on tour. If An is striking it well this weekend I think there is a good chance he could be in contention coming down the stretch on Sunday.
Eckroat might be playing the best golf of his professional career right now, he has made seven straight cuts and has finished inside the top 30 in five straight events going back to the AT&T Byron Nelson.
Eckroat doesn’t compete with the top dogs on tour in average driving distance, but he is well above the tour average in distance, but he also ranks 24th in driving accuracy percentage and 23rd in strokes gained off of the tee. He can struggle approaching the greens at times but has gained strokes on the field on approach in five of his last six starts on tour.
On a course where birdies are a must, I think Eckroat will be able to gain some strokes on the field on the par 3’s where he ranks 13th on tour in birdie or better percentage on those holes, and is well above the tour average in par 4 birdie or better percentage. I think he is set up to have another good week here in Detroit.
Spaun has been inconsistent so far this season, but he has 12 top 40 finishes in 22 starts on tour this season, and has never finished outside of the top 40 on this golf course. He isn’t the prototypical candidate for success on this course, but I think I have found what has kept him in the running the past four years..
Although Spaun isn’t an overly long hitter off the tee, he still ranks above the tour average in driving distance this season, and is very solid on approach inside of 200 yards.
Spaun also ranks 11th on tour in par 3 scoring average, and 29th on tour in par 4 scoring average. Between the scoring and ball striking on those holes, I think that will be enough to let him hang around the top of the leaderboard.
*ALL BETS AND ODDS FROM BET365*
What a great weekend at the Travelers Championship, we saw Keegan Bradley run away with the event early, but I managed to cash three of my four placement bets, and all three 3-Ball bets that I placed. This week the tour shifts to Michigan for the Rocket Mortgage Classic at Detroit Golf Club, this should be another birdiefest, let’s break this course down and then we’ll get to the picks for the weekend.
Tournament Information:
The Rocket Mortgage Classic is another straight up 72 hole stroke play event that is relatively new as far as PGA Events go, this event first debuted on tour in 2019. The Rocket Mortgage Classic replaced the Quicken Loans National on the PGA, and has found its home at the Detroit Golf Club, which is now the flattest course on the PGA Tour, creating some very low scoring finishes.
Detailed Scorecard:
Past 5 Winners & Strokes Gained Analysis:
Course Overview:
Detroit Golf Club is a 7370 yard par 72 tree lined parkland track located inside of Detroit's city limits. This is the flattest course played on the PGA tour, and also the 8th easiest. This track has 10 par 4’s, nine of which play under 460 yards. In traditional par 72 fashion this course also has four par 3’s and four par 5’s, with three of the par 5’s being amongst the easiest on the PGA Tour.
To go along with being the flattest, it is also one of the straightest on the PGA Tour, it only has two angled doglegs on the whole course and has the 15th widest fairways. With very little trouble off of the side of these fairways, and no forced layups, players have the freedom to pull drivers off almost every tee block.
The only defence this course has are the small greens, which are 5,150 square feet on average, which ranks 12th smallest played on tour, and the four inch bluegrass rough. The strategy here is extremely simple… hit it as far as you can, stick is close, make the putt. The birds are going to be all over the place this weekend, the player that wins this thing will have to put four consecutive extremely low rounds together, this venue guarantees we're going to see a shoot out.
Keys To Victory:
Strokes Gained: Approach:
Obviously, in an event where a ton of birdies are going to be made, the approach game is going to be so important in creating good looks at birdie putts. But the designers of Detroit Golf Club did a great job mixing up the lengths of the holes to create a bunch of different approach distances, meaning the winner will have to be comfortable approaching the greens with wedges, all the way out to their long irons.
Coupled with the small greens players will be hitting into, the approach game is going to have to be hot, for anyone who will be in contention this weekend.
Greens in Regulation Percentage
Proximity to the Hole
Driving Distance:
Long and straight should always be the goal, but this a course where you can afford to be a little wild off of the tee, Detroit Golf Club has the 2nd fewest penalty strokes on the PGA tour, giving players tons of freedom off of the tee.
Distance isn’t necessarily required on the track, but the extra length always helps create shorter approach shots into these already small greens, and on top of that there is rain forecasted prior and during the event, with Detroit Golf Club being so flat, any amount of rain could soften this track up getting taking away the midsummer role some of these shorter hitters need to keep up with the big swingers on tour.
Strokes Gained: Putting
With how little trouble there is off the tee at Detroit Golf Club this event essentially becomes a pitch and putt. These greens are a mix of a bentgrass and poa seed that has been played on tour for three weeks straight, and there has been bentgrass seed in play for five straight weeks, all of these players should have some comfortability on these greens this weekend, but converting birdie chances is going to be the big difference maker this weekend.
One Putt Percentage
Average Distance of Putts Made
Birdie Or Better Conversion Percentage
Expected Weather:
Thursday: 81*F | 7mph E Wind | 20% POP
Friday: 81*F | 7mph E Wind | 70% POP | Chances of Thunderstorms
Saturday: 81*F | 5mph NE Wind | 60% POP
Sunday: 82*F | 8mph NW Wind | 40% POP
If it’s going to rain, this course will get extremely soft, greens will be receptive, and drives will not roll out. Inclement weather will be this course's only defence, but it doesn’t appear that even with rain forecasted the winds will stay fairly calm.
Official Picks:
Outrights: To Win 4.00u \ Placements: To Win 4.00u
Rickie Fowler Top 20 Finish (+100) / Outright (+1400)
Fowler is emerging as one of the clear candidates for comeback player of the year on the PGA Tour, between the 2021 and 2022 seasons Fowler only had nine top 30 finishes, but in 2023 alone Fowler has 14 top 20 finishes in 19 starts on tour, including three top 10 finishes in his last four starts and 10 top 20 finishes in his last 11 starts.
Fowler has gained distance on the field off the tee in every start this year on tour but one, and ranks 64th in strokes gained off the tee on tour. He also ranks seventh on tour in strokes gained approaching the green, and 17th in birdie conversion percentage putting, it really feels like Fowler is trending towards his first win on tour since 2019, with a weaker field this week, I think this could be the one he takes home.
Sungjae Im Top 20 Finish (+115) / Outright (+2000)
Hoping back on the Sungjae train, he played well last weekend at the Travelers Championship and let's face it... I addicted to betting on this guy.
Byeong Hun An Top 40 Finish (+105) / Outright (+4500)
Hun An has six top 40 finishes in his last eight events, he was cut last weekend at the Travelers Championship, but I think Detroit Golf Club sets up much nicer for his game. Hun An is fifth on tour in average driving distance, and is above the tour average in all approach categories inside of 200 yards.
On top of that he ranks third on tour in strokes gained around the green which should keep him in the mix most of the weekend to go along with his 22.65% birdie or better percentage which ranks 35th on tour. If An is striking it well this weekend I think there is a good chance he could be in contention coming down the stretch on Sunday.
Austin Eckroat Top 40 Finish (+110) / Outright (+6000)
Eckroat might be playing the best golf of his professional career right now, he has made seven straight cuts and has finished inside the top 30 in five straight events going back to the AT&T Byron Nelson.
Eckroat doesn’t compete with the top dogs on tour in average driving distance, but he is well above the tour average in distance, but he also ranks 24th in driving accuracy percentage and 23rd in strokes gained off of the tee. He can struggle approaching the greens at times but has gained strokes on the field on approach in five of his last six starts on tour.
On a course where birdies are a must, I think Eckroat will be able to gain some strokes on the field on the par 3’s where he ranks 13th on tour in birdie or better percentage on those holes, and is well above the tour average in par 4 birdie or better percentage. I think he is set up to have another good week here in Detroit.
J.J Spaun Top 40 Finish (+115) / Outright (+6000)
Spaun has been inconsistent so far this season, but he has 12 top 40 finishes in 22 starts on tour this season, and has never finished outside of the top 40 on this golf course. He isn’t the prototypical candidate for success on this course, but I think I have found what has kept him in the running the past four years..
Although Spaun isn’t an overly long hitter off the tee, he still ranks above the tour average in driving distance this season, and is very solid on approach inside of 200 yards.
Spaun also ranks 11th on tour in par 3 scoring average, and 29th on tour in par 4 scoring average. Between the scoring and ball striking on those holes, I think that will be enough to let him hang around the top of the leaderboard.
*ALL BETS AND ODDS FROM BET365*
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