What a weekend it was at the US Open Championship and congratulations to Wyndham Clark for earning his first major championship win! The PGA Tour shifts back east this week to Cromwell, Connecticut for the Travelers Championship. We have another great field of golfers. I am going to break down the course and give out my best bets for this weekend's festivities.
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Tournament Information:
The Travelers Championship has been played at TPC River Highlands since 1984, this event typically attracts big crowds, and competitive fields. This year we are going to see a field of 156 golfers all fighting for their share of 8.5 million dollars.
TPC River Highlands is a course where everyone in the field has a chance to win, distance off the tee isn’t required. This course demands good ball striking and a hot putter. This could be a fun weekend, with a bunch of guys in the mix coming down the stretch on Sunday.
Detailed Scorecard:
Past 5 Winners & Strokes Gained Analysis:
Course Overview:
TPC River Highlands is a pretty stock golf course. It is not a long track by any means, it will be playing at 6,852 yards, giving every golfer a chance this weekend.
Hitting the fairway off of the tee will be a major key this weekend, as sTPC River Highlands has the 16th highest missed fairway penalty of all courses played on tour since 2015 that are equipped with shotlink data. However, hitting fairways shouldn’t be too difficult, as TPC River Highlands has an average fairway width of 37.7 yards which are the 15th widest that have been played on tour since 2015.
Approach shots are going to be the key this weekend. Players are going to have a ton of short irons, and wedges into greens this weekend. To be exact, 46.5% of approaches were hit from between 125-175 yards. Being able to convert on birdies from this will be what keeps players in the mix this weekend.
This isn’t a course that is going to be overpowered, TPC River Highlands is about setting yourself up in the right spots, there are a ton of dog leg holes on this course that require shot shaping, and accuracy to a specific side of the fairway to create angles to attack flags. The combo of accuracy and distance could be lethal this weekend if one of the big swingers is hot off the tee, but prioritising guys who play from the fairway is a must this weekend.
But as we all know by now, golf tournaments are typically won and lost on the greens. TPC River Highlands will again present the challenge of bentgrass greens, which have been played the past five weeks on tour, so most of these guys should be comfortable on this grass, but their is a wrinkle in these greens, as the bentgrass is also mixed with a poa annua seed, which is the exact combination we saw at Oakdale Country Club for the RBC Canadian Open.
Keys To Victory:
Par 4 Scoring:
Anytime a par 70 track pops up, there is going to be more emphasis on par 4 scoring, as there are typically 12 of them on the course, leaving only two par 5’s across all 18 holes. Here at TPC River Highlands there are only two par 4’s playing over 450 yards, leaving a lot of good scoring opportunities here. Taking advantage of the scorable par 4’s is going to be what separates players this weekend.
Par 4 Scoring Average
Par 4 Birdie or Better %
Approaches From 150-175 Yards:
Last year at this event, 27.1% of approaches were hit from in between these distances, and two of the four par 3’s will be played in between these distances. Being proficient from these distances will be a difference maker this weekend, and the guys at the top of the leaderboard, will likely be near the top of the proximity to the hole leaders from within these yardages, and these will be the guys getting the best birdie looks.
Strokes Gained: Putting
Over the past five years, the guys that have won this event, have had exceptional weeks with the flatstick. This course is not overly challenging for the guys who are playing well tee to green. At the end of the weekend, this event is going to come down to who made the most putts. Two putt pars aren’t going to win this event this weekend, find guys who are capable of lighting it up with the flatstick and making a couple putts that most other players won’t.
Other Key Statistics:
Driving Accuracy
SG: Off The Tee
SG: Tee To Green
Expected Weather:
Thursday: 79*F | 7mph S Wind | 40% POP
Friday: 77*F | 9mph S Wind | 60% POP
Saturday: 79*F | 11mph S Wind | 80% POP | Chances of Thunderstorms
Sunday: 79*F | 5mph S Wind | 80% POP
If it’s going to rain, that will add even more emphasis on the ball striking categories! It could also really affect the winning score this weekend.
Official Picks:
Outright: *To Win 4.00u*
Schauffele might be more due for a win than anybody on tour, he has 10 top 10 finishes this season on tour and is coming off of a top 10 finish at the US Open where he shot an opening round of 62, but just couldn’t put four rounds together.
Schauffele is the defending champion at this event, winning at this venue last year by two strokes. Schauffele is first on tour approaching the green from between 150-175 yards, which is where ¼ of the approach shots will be hit from this weekend, and he has gained at least +1.00 strokes putting in three of his last four starts. I’m willing to bet he is looking to finish what he couldn’t last week at the US Open.
Cantlay has had a ton of success at this event in the past, over the last five years, he has not placed outside the top 20 at TPC River Highlands. These results make a lot of sense when you look a little deeper at Cantlay’s game. This year he is second on tour in SG: Off the Tee, 31st in SG: Approach and 30th in SG: Putting. On top of that Cantlay ranks 2nd on tour in par 4 scoring average, and first in par 5 scoring average, so he will be able to take advantage of these scorable par 5’s, and will hopefully have his ball striking in order to take advantage of the par 4’s that he will need to, to stay in contention.
Cantlay has seven top 10 finishes this season, but has yet to take home a win. Cantlay won two events in 2022, he just had a great week off the tee and on the greens at the US Open, if he brings his approach game with him this weekend, he will be competing for the win.
More Below
Placements: *All Risking 1.00u*
There aren’t many golfers in the world playing better than Henley right now, he has seven top 20 finishes in his last eight starts on tour, and has exceptional ball striking numbers over that stretch.
Henley didn’t compete in this event last year, but did the four years prior to that. He has finished inside the top 20 twice and has performed +0.68 strokes above expectation at this venue.
Henley ranks first on tour in driving accuracy percentage, and 12th on tour in approaches from between 125-150. That combined with a putter that has gained strokes in six of his last seven starts, I think that’s enough to keep Henley in the mix this weekend, if not win the event.
Fowler is another guy who got off to a hot start at the US Open, he posted a round one 62, but couldn’t lock up the win, and ended up finishing T5. Fowler doesn’t have the best history at this venue, but he isn’t the same golfer this year as he has been over the last couple of seasons. He is coming off of three straight top 10 finishes, and has finished inside the top 20 in 11 of his last 13 starts on tour.
Fowler has been exceptional on approach this season, ranking seventh on tour in strokes gained in that category. He also ranks 18th in par 4 scoring average, and sixth in par 3 scoring average. I think these numbers keep him in the mix this weekend, as he looks for his first PGA Tour win since the 2019 Waste Management Open.
Harman’s recent form is a little scary to be backing at this price. However, Harman has finished inside the top 10 in four of the last five years at TPC River Highlands, something about this course must fit his eye, as he has played +1.08 strokes better per round than expected at this venue.
Why does Harman’s game fit this course so well you might ask, well he ranks eighth on tour in driving accuracy percentage, 21st in proximity to the hole, and 67th in approaches between 125-150 yards. Harman can struggle from 150-175 yards, but he makes up for that on longer approaches, where he should gain strokes on the field if he can just be average from 150-175.
He also ranks 26th on tour in par 4 scoring average, and 34th in par five scoring average. Although there are only two he should be able to take advantage of the par 5’s and be more than able to hold his own on the par 4’s. I’m not asking him to win the thing, I just think his game sets up to be in the mix on this course.
This feels like a crazy price for a guy that is in the middle of arguably the best stretch of golf he has played in his career. Hubbard has seven top 40 finishes in his last 11 starts on tour, he has gained at least +0.97 strokes on approach in five of his last eight starts, but has gained strokes on approach in eight straight.
Hubbard can struggle in events that have stronger fields, but he has finished inside the top 40 in two of the three years he has played at this event, and made the cut on all three trips. He is coming off of a T6 finish at the RBC Canadian Open, with the way he has been approaching the green, I think he can stay in the mix this weekend.
*ALL BETS AND ODDS PROVIDED BY BET365*
Follow me on Twitter @PropDr_ to stay up to date with round by round & live bets that I place throughout the weekend!
What a weekend it was at the US Open Championship and congratulations to Wyndham Clark for earning his first major championship win! The PGA Tour shifts back east this week to Cromwell, Connecticut for the Travelers Championship. We have another great field of golfers. I am going to break down the course and give out my best bets for this weekend's festivities.
Tournament Information:
The Travelers Championship has been played at TPC River Highlands since 1984, this event typically attracts big crowds, and competitive fields. This year we are going to see a field of 156 golfers all fighting for their share of 8.5 million dollars.
TPC River Highlands is a course where everyone in the field has a chance to win, distance off the tee isn’t required. This course demands good ball striking and a hot putter. This could be a fun weekend, with a bunch of guys in the mix coming down the stretch on Sunday.
Detailed Scorecard:
Past 5 Winners & Strokes Gained Analysis:
Course Overview:
TPC River Highlands is a pretty stock golf course. It is not a long track by any means, it will be playing at 6,852 yards, giving every golfer a chance this weekend.
Hitting the fairway off of the tee will be a major key this weekend, as sTPC River Highlands has the 16th highest missed fairway penalty of all courses played on tour since 2015 that are equipped with shotlink data. However, hitting fairways shouldn’t be too difficult, as TPC River Highlands has an average fairway width of 37.7 yards which are the 15th widest that have been played on tour since 2015.
Approach shots are going to be the key this weekend. Players are going to have a ton of short irons, and wedges into greens this weekend. To be exact, 46.5% of approaches were hit from between 125-175 yards. Being able to convert on birdies from this will be what keeps players in the mix this weekend.
This isn’t a course that is going to be overpowered, TPC River Highlands is about setting yourself up in the right spots, there are a ton of dog leg holes on this course that require shot shaping, and accuracy to a specific side of the fairway to create angles to attack flags. The combo of accuracy and distance could be lethal this weekend if one of the big swingers is hot off the tee, but prioritising guys who play from the fairway is a must this weekend.
But as we all know by now, golf tournaments are typically won and lost on the greens. TPC River Highlands will again present the challenge of bentgrass greens, which have been played the past five weeks on tour, so most of these guys should be comfortable on this grass, but their is a wrinkle in these greens, as the bentgrass is also mixed with a poa annua seed, which is the exact combination we saw at Oakdale Country Club for the RBC Canadian Open.
Keys To Victory:
Par 4 Scoring:
Anytime a par 70 track pops up, there is going to be more emphasis on par 4 scoring, as there are typically 12 of them on the course, leaving only two par 5’s across all 18 holes. Here at TPC River Highlands there are only two par 4’s playing over 450 yards, leaving a lot of good scoring opportunities here. Taking advantage of the scorable par 4’s is going to be what separates players this weekend.
Par 4 Scoring Average
Par 4 Birdie or Better %
Approaches From 150-175 Yards:
Last year at this event, 27.1% of approaches were hit from in between these distances, and two of the four par 3’s will be played in between these distances. Being proficient from these distances will be a difference maker this weekend, and the guys at the top of the leaderboard, will likely be near the top of the proximity to the hole leaders from within these yardages, and these will be the guys getting the best birdie looks.
GIR% 150-175 Yards
Proximity to the hole 150-175 yards.
Strokes Gained: Putting
Over the past five years, the guys that have won this event, have had exceptional weeks with the flatstick. This course is not overly challenging for the guys who are playing well tee to green. At the end of the weekend, this event is going to come down to who made the most putts. Two putt pars aren’t going to win this event this weekend, find guys who are capable of lighting it up with the flatstick and making a couple putts that most other players won’t.
Birdie or Better Conversion %
Average Distance of Putts Made
Other Key Statistics:
Driving Accuracy
SG: Off The Tee
SG: Tee To Green
Expected Weather:
Thursday: 79*F | 7mph S Wind | 40% POP
Friday: 77*F | 9mph S Wind | 60% POP
Saturday: 79*F | 11mph S Wind | 80% POP | Chances of Thunderstorms
Sunday: 79*F | 5mph S Wind | 80% POP
If it’s going to rain, that will add even more emphasis on the ball striking categories! It could also really affect the winning score this weekend.
Official Picks:
Outright: *To Win 4.00u*
Xander Schauffele (+1200)
Schauffele might be more due for a win than anybody on tour, he has 10 top 10 finishes this season on tour and is coming off of a top 10 finish at the US Open where he shot an opening round of 62, but just couldn’t put four rounds together.
Schauffele is the defending champion at this event, winning at this venue last year by two strokes. Schauffele is first on tour approaching the green from between 150-175 yards, which is where ¼ of the approach shots will be hit from this weekend, and he has gained at least +1.00 strokes putting in three of his last four starts. I’m willing to bet he is looking to finish what he couldn’t last week at the US Open.
Patrick Cantlay (+1200)
Cantlay has had a ton of success at this event in the past, over the last five years, he has not placed outside the top 20 at TPC River Highlands. These results make a lot of sense when you look a little deeper at Cantlay’s game. This year he is second on tour in SG: Off the Tee, 31st in SG: Approach and 30th in SG: Putting. On top of that Cantlay ranks 2nd on tour in par 4 scoring average, and first in par 5 scoring average, so he will be able to take advantage of these scorable par 5’s, and will hopefully have his ball striking in order to take advantage of the par 4’s that he will need to, to stay in contention.
Cantlay has seven top 10 finishes this season, but has yet to take home a win. Cantlay won two events in 2022, he just had a great week off the tee and on the greens at the US Open, if he brings his approach game with him this weekend, he will be competing for the win.
Russell Henley (+4000)
More Below
Placements: *All Risking 1.00u*
Russell Henley Top 20 Finish (+190)
There aren’t many golfers in the world playing better than Henley right now, he has seven top 20 finishes in his last eight starts on tour, and has exceptional ball striking numbers over that stretch.
Henley didn’t compete in this event last year, but did the four years prior to that. He has finished inside the top 20 twice and has performed +0.68 strokes above expectation at this venue.
Henley ranks first on tour in driving accuracy percentage, and 12th on tour in approaches from between 125-150. That combined with a putter that has gained strokes in six of his last seven starts, I think that’s enough to keep Henley in the mix this weekend, if not win the event.
Rickie Fowler Top 20 Finish (+163)
Fowler is another guy who got off to a hot start at the US Open, he posted a round one 62, but couldn’t lock up the win, and ended up finishing T5. Fowler doesn’t have the best history at this venue, but he isn’t the same golfer this year as he has been over the last couple of seasons. He is coming off of three straight top 10 finishes, and has finished inside the top 20 in 11 of his last 13 starts on tour.
Fowler has been exceptional on approach this season, ranking seventh on tour in strokes gained in that category. He also ranks 18th in par 4 scoring average, and sixth in par 3 scoring average. I think these numbers keep him in the mix this weekend, as he looks for his first PGA Tour win since the 2019 Waste Management Open.
Brian Harman Top 40 Finish (+115)
Harman’s recent form is a little scary to be backing at this price. However, Harman has finished inside the top 10 in four of the last five years at TPC River Highlands, something about this course must fit his eye, as he has played +1.08 strokes better per round than expected at this venue.
Why does Harman’s game fit this course so well you might ask, well he ranks eighth on tour in driving accuracy percentage, 21st in proximity to the hole, and 67th in approaches between 125-150 yards. Harman can struggle from 150-175 yards, but he makes up for that on longer approaches, where he should gain strokes on the field if he can just be average from 150-175.
He also ranks 26th on tour in par 4 scoring average, and 34th in par five scoring average. Although there are only two he should be able to take advantage of the par 5’s and be more than able to hold his own on the par 4’s. I’m not asking him to win the thing, I just think his game sets up to be in the mix on this course.
Mark Hubbard Top 40 Finish (+200)
This feels like a crazy price for a guy that is in the middle of arguably the best stretch of golf he has played in his career. Hubbard has seven top 40 finishes in his last 11 starts on tour, he has gained at least +0.97 strokes on approach in five of his last eight starts, but has gained strokes on approach in eight straight.
Hubbard can struggle in events that have stronger fields, but he has finished inside the top 40 in two of the three years he has played at this event, and made the cut on all three trips. He is coming off of a T6 finish at the RBC Canadian Open, with the way he has been approaching the green, I think he can stay in the mix this weekend.
*ALL BETS AND ODDS PROVIDED BY BET365*
Follow me on Twitter @PropDr_ to stay up to date with round by round & live bets that I place throughout the weekend!
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