Congratulations Nick Taylor for keeping the Canadian Open trophy on home soil, what a battle with Tommy Fleetwood in the playoff. Could have been a huge week for me if Fleetwood would have taken advantage of one of his many chances on 18 and in the playoff, but I’ll settle for a sweep of my placement picks, with all of my outright picks finishing in the top 10. Perfect time to heat up as we head out west for the US Open, let’s talk about what we are going to see this weekend.
Tournament Information:
The US Open was first played in 1895, and in 1898 was the first time the 72 hole stroke play format was played. It is the third of the four major championships in golf and the field is made up of 156 golfers, that consists of the best golfers in the world, all the way down to players who have played through the qualifiers.
Event History:
US Open Championship Past 5 Winners :
2022: Matthew Fitzpatrick (-6) / 2021: Jon Rahm (-6) / 2020: Bryson Dechambeau (-6) /
2018: Gary Woodland (-13) / 2017: Brooks Koepka (+1)
Lowest Winning Score: Brooks Koepka (-16) - 2017 / Rory McIlroy (-16) - 2011
Largest Margin of Victory: Tiger Woods (2000) won by 15 strokes.
Playoff Information: The US Open has not gone to playoff holes in 15 years.
Scorecard:
Course Information:
This year's venue will be Los Angeles Country Club’s North Course, making its first US Open Appearance and only the fourth time it’s held a USGA event. The course will have some stunning views being situated right in downtown Los Angeles, but the players will be in for a challenge.
Off the tee the US Open is always about long and straight, and that’s going to be needed here with six par 4’s playing over 450 yards, and stretching all the way out to 542 yards. On top of that, you have got a par 5 stretching out to 623 yards and two par 3’s playing over 280 yards, so some distance is going to be required here.
However, the USGA Is famous for the length of the rough in these events, so over-powering this course probably won’t be an option. Off the tee, length will be required, but the priority still needs to be accuracy. The landing zones are riddled with bunkers, or have sloping fairways, that will require some shot shaping to keep the ball in the fairway.
The rough at LACC is a mix of Bandera Bermuda, fescue, and buffalo grass. This combination makes accuracy off the tee and on approach even more important. Bermuda grass can be tricky to begin with, because of how much the grain impacts the club face at times, primarily affecting shots around the green, on top of that it will likely be four inches tall by the weekend, which won’t be fun to hit out of.
The saving grace for players this weekend will be the size of the greens. A lot of these greens appear to be on the bigger side, with some being over 8,000 square feet in size. These bentgrass greens may be big, but they will be fast running at a 13 of the stimpmeter.
Most of these greens are slopped from front to back, so keeping the ball below the hole will be extremely important here. This course is going to be a challenge, and it’s hard to say how players are going to beat it. This is going to be a full tee to green course that is going to be extremely low scoring, but let's talk about what should separate these players at the end of the weekend…
Players Path To Victory:
Par 3 Scoring:
Earlier I mentioned the two beasts that are over 280 yards on paper, now both of these will be playing down from that number as both have elevated tee boxes, but hitting a poor tee shot on these holes, big numbers could creep in quickly.
Aside from those two, there are three other par 3’s on this course two of which are more reasonable playing 228 and 171 yards. The last provides more of a birdie opportunity at 124. The extra par 3 already adds some importance on top of these holes, but the length of some of these holes will make them extremely difficult for a lot of players in the field. Playing well on these five holes could be the difference maker this weekend.
Greens In Regulation Percentage:
This is something that always needs to be looked at, but this is going to be a low scoring event, and boring golf is going to win out here. The guys in contention won’t get caught up in flag hunting, they will just be hitting greens and taking the chances the course is giving.
There are holes out here that players will have to take advantage of, but fairways and greens are going to win out here. I wouldn’t expect to see a score lower than -10, players who fall behind early are going to struggle to catch up. Being able to play safe is going to be a huge advantage this weekend.
Pre Cut Scoring Average:
Players that fall behind early are going to struggle. This course has plenty of greens that are well protected, even though they are on the larger side, they don’t set up in a way where you can just go at the flag sticks.
The greens are sloped which will create some dicey down hills for approaches hit past the pin, bunkers will swallow up balls hit all around the green creating difficult par saves. If one of these guys gets off to a racing start in round one they could run away with this thing early, playing catch up will not be easy this weekend.
Other Key Statistics:
Driving Accuracy
SG: Off The Tee
SG: Approach
SG: Putting
SG: Tee To Green
Official Picks:
Outright: *All to Win 4.00*
Jon Rahm (+1100) Fanduel
I couldn’t pass up Rahm at this price, most books are sitting around +800, getting more than 10/1 on arguably the best golfer in the world is a bet I will make every single time. Rahm looks to become the first guy to win multiple majors since Brooks Koepka did it in 2018.
Brooks Koepka (+1200) Bet365
Last time we saw Koepka alongside the PGA Tour guys, he stole their championship right out from under them. Koepka won that event shooting a -9, and I am expecting a winning score similar to that this weekend. Koepka won the US Open in back to back years in 2017 and 2018 and has three other finishes inside the top five at the US Open.
Xander Schauffele (+1800) Bet365
Schauffele is eighth on tour in pre cut scoring averaging, he has finished inside the top five, six time so far this season but has yet to get a win, and has finished inside the top 20 at the US Open every year, since he turned pro in 2017, and has five finishes inside the top five. Find me someone more due for a win.
Max Home (+2600) FanDuel
Homa hasn’t had as much success at the US Open, but they haven’t held one of these things in California… until now. That’s right, I can’t miss out on a chance, to bet on California Max, this guy can get as hot as anybody with the flat stick, and something about being at home in California puts this guy in a different gear. He has two wins on tour this season, both coming off of a short break, which he has had here, since he hasn’t played since the Charles Schwab Challenge.
Placements: *All to Win 1.00*
Xander Schauffele Top 20 Finish (+110) Bet365
Tyrrell Hatton Top 20 Finish (+150) Bet365
There are so many good golfers in this field, but this number feels disrespectful. Hatton ranks third on tour in total strokes gained, seventh in SG:Tee To Green, 11 in SG: Off The Tee, 17th in SG: Approach, and 7th in SG: Putting. He has finished inside the top 20 in 11 of his 17 professional starts in 2023, and has finished inside the top 20 in six straight starts on the PGA Tour, including a 15th at the PGA Championship. Most books have this number closer to +115, where this line should be priced. Hatton has gained at least +0.99 SG: Putting in three straight events, and all of those performances came on bentgrass greens, which is what is being played this weekend.
Justin Rose Top 30 Finish (+105) FanDuel
Rose was a part of my trio of outrights that were littered throughout the top of the leaderboard last weekend at the RBC. Rose has gained at least +0.99 strokes on approach in three straight events, finishing inside the top 20 in all three. On the year Rose has finished inside the top 20 in eight of 15 starts this year on tour, but has had four top 20’s in his last five starts. Rose ranks 10th on tour in par 3 scoring average, 2nd on tour in sand saves, and 1st on tour in putting from 20-25 feet. Between his ball striking and his creativity around the greens, I think he can keep himself in the mix.
Rickie Fowler Top 30 Finish (+115) Bet365
Fowler has had an impressive 2023 campaign on the PGA Tour, he has only missed two cuts in 17 starts this year, and has finished inside the top 30 in 11 of those 17 starts. He is coming off back to back top 10’s, and is playing +2.27 strokes above expectation, which is sixth best in DataGolf’s database. Rickie has a solid all around game, and is great around the greens which should keep him in the mix this weekend.
Keegan Bradley Top 40 Finish (+115) Bet365
Bradley has been playing some really good golf this season, he has finished inside the top 40 in 12 of his 16 starts on tour this season, with four of those being in his last five starts. Bradley has been pretty successful in major events recently as well finishing inside the top 40 in three of the last four major tournaments that have been played. Bradley ranks 39th on tour in SG: Off The Tee, 57th in SG: Approach, and 44th in SG: Putting, his all around game should help him here at LACC.
Russell Henley Top 40 Finish (+125) Bet365
Over his last five starts Henley has played +2.14 strokes above expectation, which is ninth best in DataGolf’s database over this stretch. He has six top 20 finishes in his last seven starts, and has finished top 40 in three of the last four US Open’s he has played in. Henley leads the PGA Tour in driving accuracy this season, which is going to be needed this weekend. On top of that he is averaging +0.80 strokes gained on approach over his last 10 starts. I think his ball striking will keep him in the mix this weekend.
Congratulations Nick Taylor for keeping the Canadian Open trophy on home soil, what a battle with Tommy Fleetwood in the playoff. Could have been a huge week for me if Fleetwood would have taken advantage of one of his many chances on 18 and in the playoff, but I’ll settle for a sweep of my placement picks, with all of my outright picks finishing in the top 10. Perfect time to heat up as we head out west for the US Open, let’s talk about what we are going to see this weekend.
Tournament Information:
The US Open was first played in 1895, and in 1898 was the first time the 72 hole stroke play format was played. It is the third of the four major championships in golf and the field is made up of 156 golfers, that consists of the best golfers in the world, all the way down to players who have played through the qualifiers.
Event History:
US Open Championship Past 5 Winners :
2022: Matthew Fitzpatrick (-6) / 2021: Jon Rahm (-6) / 2020: Bryson Dechambeau (-6) /
2018: Gary Woodland (-13) / 2017: Brooks Koepka (+1)
Lowest Winning Score: Brooks Koepka (-16) - 2017 / Rory McIlroy (-16) - 2011
Largest Margin of Victory: Tiger Woods (2000) won by 15 strokes.
Playoff Information: The US Open has not gone to playoff holes in 15 years.
Scorecard:
Course Information:
This year's venue will be Los Angeles Country Club’s North Course, making its first US Open Appearance and only the fourth time it’s held a USGA event. The course will have some stunning views being situated right in downtown Los Angeles, but the players will be in for a challenge.
Off the tee the US Open is always about long and straight, and that’s going to be needed here with six par 4’s playing over 450 yards, and stretching all the way out to 542 yards. On top of that, you have got a par 5 stretching out to 623 yards and two par 3’s playing over 280 yards, so some distance is going to be required here.
However, the USGA Is famous for the length of the rough in these events, so over-powering this course probably won’t be an option. Off the tee, length will be required, but the priority still needs to be accuracy. The landing zones are riddled with bunkers, or have sloping fairways, that will require some shot shaping to keep the ball in the fairway.
The rough at LACC is a mix of Bandera Bermuda, fescue, and buffalo grass. This combination makes accuracy off the tee and on approach even more important. Bermuda grass can be tricky to begin with, because of how much the grain impacts the club face at times, primarily affecting shots around the green, on top of that it will likely be four inches tall by the weekend, which won’t be fun to hit out of.
The saving grace for players this weekend will be the size of the greens. A lot of these greens appear to be on the bigger side, with some being over 8,000 square feet in size. These bentgrass greens may be big, but they will be fast running at a 13 of the stimpmeter.
Most of these greens are slopped from front to back, so keeping the ball below the hole will be extremely important here. This course is going to be a challenge, and it’s hard to say how players are going to beat it. This is going to be a full tee to green course that is going to be extremely low scoring, but let's talk about what should separate these players at the end of the weekend…
Players Path To Victory:
Par 3 Scoring:
Earlier I mentioned the two beasts that are over 280 yards on paper, now both of these will be playing down from that number as both have elevated tee boxes, but hitting a poor tee shot on these holes, big numbers could creep in quickly.
Aside from those two, there are three other par 3’s on this course two of which are more reasonable playing 228 and 171 yards. The last provides more of a birdie opportunity at 124. The extra par 3 already adds some importance on top of these holes, but the length of some of these holes will make them extremely difficult for a lot of players in the field. Playing well on these five holes could be the difference maker this weekend.
Greens In Regulation Percentage:
This is something that always needs to be looked at, but this is going to be a low scoring event, and boring golf is going to win out here. The guys in contention won’t get caught up in flag hunting, they will just be hitting greens and taking the chances the course is giving.
There are holes out here that players will have to take advantage of, but fairways and greens are going to win out here. I wouldn’t expect to see a score lower than -10, players who fall behind early are going to struggle to catch up. Being able to play safe is going to be a huge advantage this weekend.
Pre Cut Scoring Average:
Players that fall behind early are going to struggle. This course has plenty of greens that are well protected, even though they are on the larger side, they don’t set up in a way where you can just go at the flag sticks.
The greens are sloped which will create some dicey down hills for approaches hit past the pin, bunkers will swallow up balls hit all around the green creating difficult par saves. If one of these guys gets off to a racing start in round one they could run away with this thing early, playing catch up will not be easy this weekend.
Other Key Statistics:
Driving Accuracy
SG: Off The Tee
SG: Approach
SG: Putting
SG: Tee To Green
Official Picks:
Outright: *All to Win 4.00*
Jon Rahm (+1100) Fanduel
I couldn’t pass up Rahm at this price, most books are sitting around +800, getting more than 10/1 on arguably the best golfer in the world is a bet I will make every single time. Rahm looks to become the first guy to win multiple majors since Brooks Koepka did it in 2018.
Brooks Koepka (+1200) Bet365
Last time we saw Koepka alongside the PGA Tour guys, he stole their championship right out from under them. Koepka won that event shooting a -9, and I am expecting a winning score similar to that this weekend. Koepka won the US Open in back to back years in 2017 and 2018 and has three other finishes inside the top five at the US Open.
Xander Schauffele (+1800) Bet365
Schauffele is eighth on tour in pre cut scoring averaging, he has finished inside the top five, six time so far this season but has yet to get a win, and has finished inside the top 20 at the US Open every year, since he turned pro in 2017, and has five finishes inside the top five. Find me someone more due for a win.
Max Home (+2600) FanDuel
Homa hasn’t had as much success at the US Open, but they haven’t held one of these things in California… until now. That’s right, I can’t miss out on a chance, to bet on California Max, this guy can get as hot as anybody with the flat stick, and something about being at home in California puts this guy in a different gear. He has two wins on tour this season, both coming off of a short break, which he has had here, since he hasn’t played since the Charles Schwab Challenge.
Placements: *All to Win 1.00*
Xander Schauffele Top 20 Finish (+110) Bet365
Tyrrell Hatton Top 20 Finish (+150) Bet365
There are so many good golfers in this field, but this number feels disrespectful. Hatton ranks third on tour in total strokes gained, seventh in SG:Tee To Green, 11 in SG: Off The Tee, 17th in SG: Approach, and 7th in SG: Putting. He has finished inside the top 20 in 11 of his 17 professional starts in 2023, and has finished inside the top 20 in six straight starts on the PGA Tour, including a 15th at the PGA Championship. Most books have this number closer to +115, where this line should be priced. Hatton has gained at least +0.99 SG: Putting in three straight events, and all of those performances came on bentgrass greens, which is what is being played this weekend.
Justin Rose Top 30 Finish (+105) FanDuel
Rose was a part of my trio of outrights that were littered throughout the top of the leaderboard last weekend at the RBC. Rose has gained at least +0.99 strokes on approach in three straight events, finishing inside the top 20 in all three. On the year Rose has finished inside the top 20 in eight of 15 starts this year on tour, but has had four top 20’s in his last five starts. Rose ranks 10th on tour in par 3 scoring average, 2nd on tour in sand saves, and 1st on tour in putting from 20-25 feet. Between his ball striking and his creativity around the greens, I think he can keep himself in the mix.
Rickie Fowler Top 30 Finish (+115) Bet365
Fowler has had an impressive 2023 campaign on the PGA Tour, he has only missed two cuts in 17 starts this year, and has finished inside the top 30 in 11 of those 17 starts. He is coming off back to back top 10’s, and is playing +2.27 strokes above expectation, which is sixth best in DataGolf’s database. Rickie has a solid all around game, and is great around the greens which should keep him in the mix this weekend.
Keegan Bradley Top 40 Finish (+115) Bet365
Bradley has been playing some really good golf this season, he has finished inside the top 40 in 12 of his 16 starts on tour this season, with four of those being in his last five starts. Bradley has been pretty successful in major events recently as well finishing inside the top 40 in three of the last four major tournaments that have been played. Bradley ranks 39th on tour in SG: Off The Tee, 57th in SG: Approach, and 44th in SG: Putting, his all around game should help him here at LACC.
Russell Henley Top 40 Finish (+125) Bet365
Over his last five starts Henley has played +2.14 strokes above expectation, which is ninth best in DataGolf’s database over this stretch. He has six top 20 finishes in his last seven starts, and has finished top 40 in three of the last four US Open’s he has played in. Henley leads the PGA Tour in driving accuracy this season, which is going to be needed this weekend. On top of that he is averaging +0.80 strokes gained on approach over his last 10 starts. I think his ball striking will keep him in the mix this weekend.
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