Pick 5: Douggie Hamilton Under 2.5 shots on goal (+135)

Carolina is one of the best in league at limiting shots at home.  My model has them, as a home team, giving up 26% fewer shots than average.  Douggie Hamilton has been very good lately and defense independent I would expect him to register about 3.2 shots in this game. However, when bringing in Carolina it drops all the way to about 2.4 which is below the 2.5 line.  If the odds were different this would not be a play but getting +135 on something that I think is greater than 50% of happening is a lot of value so I'll add another pick and go with Douggie Hamilton under 2.5 SOG tonight.