Pick 2: Dylan Larkin Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-165)

Larkin has hit this 3+ line in 14/20 games so far this season, a 70% hit rate with an average of 3.55 per game. At Home he has cashed this line in 8/11 games (72.7%) with an average of 4.18 per game. He faced Toronto three times last season, cashing in all three games with a combined total of 14 shots on goal (4.67 per game) and earning 5+ in two games. Three of his last 4 home games have seen shot totals of 6 or more for Larkin. With the increased volume in recent games, and at home specifically, along with his past successes against Toronto last season, I really like the ladder opportunity on him tonight for 4+ and 5+. When playing these, make sure profit from the first step (3+) not only covers the remaining steps but leaves you with a half unit of profit if it's the only step that hits. For example, I am betting 3.3 units to win 2 units on 3+ shots on goal, betting 1 unit to win 1.54 units on 4+, and betting 0.5 units to win 1.7 units on 5+. I will profit 0.5 units if he only gets three, but we can profit over 5 units if he hits all three steps.