There's a lot about this that isn't ideal. The start to the NHL betting season I mean. Based on how folks are reacting, it's clear many of us weren't expecting the first month or so of the season to go this way, yet here we are.
Maybe it's hubris. I came on about midway through last season, but it seems evident that the NHL prop betting community is experiencing a boom, with more bettors, more cappers, and more data, methods, tools, etc. out there for folks to utilize. Those that had success last season might have thought they'd pick up right where they left off and it's understandably frustrating when the methods, analysis, skills we used to make good picks last season aren't going our way as often this season. But data can only go so far. Fandom can only go so far. Analysis can only go so far. There are no locks, no guarantees.
The best we can do is use the methods and information available to us to make good decisions and the rest is out on the ice with the players. It's gambling for a reason, we are trying to predict outcomes that quite literally can't be predicted with anywhere close to 100% accuracy. Like the players we like to cheer for and bet on, anyone making picks or placing bets is going to have their good days and their bad days. It's important to keep that in perspective.
Maybe it's just different. The 32 teams on the ice right now are not the teams they were last season. The players that make up those teams are not who they were last season. It's a new year, with new coaches, new schemes, new line combinations, and new faces. We are working off sample sizes of 16-21 games, less if you focus on home and away stats individually. While the data we do have so far is useful, it will continue to grow more useful by the game. We probably shouldn't be judging our success after 15-20 games off of how we were doing after 60-70 games last season.
Maybe it's rigged or inept. Stat corrections suck. It's deflating to watch a game and see a clear to our eyes shot not get counted or be initially counted and then changed later. However, it's hardly a new phenomenon. The NHL and her teams have tracked stats for many years at this point and it's not as if corrections are only now happening this season with the rise of sports betting. We as humans have a tendency to believe a thing is happening more frequently both A) when we are specifically looking for it or have it brought to our attention and B) when the thing has a meaningful impact on us. More often than not, this is just a logical fallacy, a trick of the mind when in reality the thing is happening at the same rate as it was previously.
While I have sympathy for folks that miss by 1 leg due to a "bad call", up to this point in the season for every truly horrendous call I've seen there have been a half-dozen calls that are either correct but not understood by those complaining or are initially mislabeled and corrected within 5-10 minutes. It's all part of the game and was part of it in previous seasons as well, just another thing to be accounted for.
All of this is to say that there are any number of explanations for why so many folks (myself included) are off to a poorer than expected start this season. My message to those reading this is to stick with it, keep grinding, and learn from your missteps. Many of us do this because we love hockey. For myself I love the sport and enjoy numbers/data/analytics, so I genuinely look forward to the work of it. Even if you're not winning, try to remember why you enjoy it in the first place and keep at it. We're going to get right.
There's a lot about this that isn't ideal. The start to the NHL betting season I mean. Based on how folks are reacting, it's clear many of us weren't expecting the first month or so of the season to go this way, yet here we are.
Maybe it's hubris. I came on about midway through last season, but it seems evident that the NHL prop betting community is experiencing a boom, with more bettors, more cappers, and more data, methods, tools, etc. out there for folks to utilize. Those that had success last season might have thought they'd pick up right where they left off and it's understandably frustrating when the methods, analysis, skills we used to make good picks last season aren't going our way as often this season. But data can only go so far. Fandom can only go so far. Analysis can only go so far. There are no locks, no guarantees.
The best we can do is use the methods and information available to us to make good decisions and the rest is out on the ice with the players. It's gambling for a reason, we are trying to predict outcomes that quite literally can't be predicted with anywhere close to 100% accuracy. Like the players we like to cheer for and bet on, anyone making picks or placing bets is going to have their good days and their bad days. It's important to keep that in perspective.
Maybe it's just different. The 32 teams on the ice right now are not the teams they were last season. The players that make up those teams are not who they were last season. It's a new year, with new coaches, new schemes, new line combinations, and new faces. We are working off sample sizes of 16-21 games, less if you focus on home and away stats individually. While the data we do have so far is useful, it will continue to grow more useful by the game. We probably shouldn't be judging our success after 15-20 games off of how we were doing after 60-70 games last season.
Maybe it's rigged or inept. Stat corrections suck. It's deflating to watch a game and see a clear to our eyes shot not get counted or be initially counted and then changed later. However, it's hardly a new phenomenon. The NHL and her teams have tracked stats for many years at this point and it's not as if corrections are only now happening this season with the rise of sports betting. We as humans have a tendency to believe a thing is happening more frequently both A) when we are specifically looking for it or have it brought to our attention and B) when the thing has a meaningful impact on us. More often than not, this is just a logical fallacy, a trick of the mind when in reality the thing is happening at the same rate as it was previously.
While I have sympathy for folks that miss by 1 leg due to a "bad call", up to this point in the season for every truly horrendous call I've seen there have been a half-dozen calls that are either correct but not understood by those complaining or are initially mislabeled and corrected within 5-10 minutes. It's all part of the game and was part of it in previous seasons as well, just another thing to be accounted for.
All of this is to say that there are any number of explanations for why so many folks (myself included) are off to a poorer than expected start this season. My message to those reading this is to stick with it, keep grinding, and learn from your missteps. Many of us do this because we love hockey. For myself I love the sport and enjoy numbers/data/analytics, so I genuinely look forward to the work of it. Even if you're not winning, try to remember why you enjoy it in the first place and keep at it. We're going to get right.
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