The NHL only has one game this evening, so I thought I'd take some time to put together a piece digging into some of the different considerations when researching NHL player props. Yes, dear reader, this is my idea of a good time.
When researching player props for the NHL, there are a number of factors one can choose to consider (or ignore). They include, but are not limited to:
Recent Performance
One of the easiest methods of research and fairly common sense - athletes and teams that have been performing in a certain way would seemingly be more inclined to continue performing at that level. If you're looking for a guy to get over 2.5 shots on goal, it will help you feel more confident in his chances if he has been hitting 3+ shots per game fairly regularly.
Past Performance vs Opponent
Another fairly common-sense metric and one that understandably carries a lot of weight with folks researching a wide variety of player props, not just NHL. Some athletes just seem to show up (or disappear) vs certain opponents. Maybe it's due to the scheme the other team employs, maybe it's the context (some players like to show out vs the "big name" teams for example), it could be their team's rival, or maybe there is a personal connection (team that drafted them, traded them, slept with their college girlfriend, etc). Regardless of the reason why, it is useful to know if a player has a history of performing a certain way vs their opponent.
Game/Team Matchup
Similar to considering the individual athlete's past performance vs their opponent, looking at the overall matchup between the two teams can be useful. Does their team shoot a lot? Does their opponent give up a lot of shots? If you're looking at point props, how often is their team scoring? Who is in net for the opposing team? Do they tend to give up a lot of goals? This can even extend to looking into how often the teams are either getting or giving up power play opportunities or whether or not they are on a back-to-back or a long road trip. Having context for the game is helpful in making decisions on what player props to play.
Home vs Away Stats
Kaprizov, MacKinnon, Huberdeau - all guys that at some point in the last year or so went on shots on goal runs on home ice that were statistically significant and marked compared to their performance on the road. If you could get Kaprizov over 3.5, Mack over 4.5, or Huberdeau over 2.5 shots when they were at home, you were in business. Those are just a few examples to highlight a very real phenomenon in NHL player props. Some guys (not all) just perform better (or worse) either home or away. Could happen for any number of reasons, though structurally it does make some sense given the slight advantage to home teams, and thus disadvantage to road teams, when it comes to line changes during the game. Regardless, looking at how an athlete performs on the road vs at home can be useful in determining whether to take a particular prop.
This can also be applied more broadly to teams as a whole as some will perform in markedly different ways depending on where they are playing.
Positional Matchups
Some teams may give up a ton of shots per game but not many to defensemen. Others may be stingy with their shots but susceptible to shots from the Center position. While there is debate on the merits of positional matchups, it is useful to know how a team tends to perform against players at different positions on the ice. While I find this information valuable for all positions, in my experience it seems to be most telling regarding which teams do and do not allow shots to defensemen.
Role on the Team
Last but not least, obviously the role a player fills on their team is an important clue to what we can expect from them in any given game. Top 6 Forwards are likely going to see more ice time and opportunities than their teammates on the 3rd and 4th lines, that's just a fact. Players that are a part of their team's power play are going to see both more ice time and arguably more/better shot opportunities. If you are playing point props, it's important to know if the skater you're targeting is part of a line that is generating goals, if not, it may be hard for them to tally a point. These roles and line combinations can change game to game, week to week, sometimes even mid-game if the coach needs to switch things up. However, understanding how a player fits onto their team will help you make more informed wagers.
Caveats
This is not an exhaustive list of things to consider, and it is not foolproof. All hot streaks eventually come to an end. Coaches/players/schemes change year to year. Players have off nights. Averages and trend lines only tell us what is likely to happen, they do not guarantee us anything. Players in great spots sell every night and guys in tough matchups have huge games day in and day out.
Using these methods, using these tools and strategies, is all to help you make the most informed decision you can. The more you understand a thing, the better you can interact with and take advantage of it.
Resources
There are a number of tools and resources I use day in and day out in my NHL research. Some great resources include:
- Pine Sports (duh)
- Statmuse
- MoneyPuck
- props.cash
- Rotowire
- Numberfire
- ESPN+ (I don't have cable, this lets me watch games, catch highlights, and watch recaps and other useful videos that grow my knowledge of the sport and understanding of how teams/players are playing this season - you can bundle with Hulu & Disney+ to cut the cost as well)
I hope this has been helpful! I'll be back Saturday with more NHL player prop picks.
If you'd like to see my daily matchup charts, additional prop analysis, and other NHL content, please consider giving me a follow on Twitter @fnpropsguy - thanks!
The NHL only has one game this evening, so I thought I'd take some time to put together a piece digging into some of the different considerations when researching NHL player props. Yes, dear reader, this is my idea of a good time.
When researching player props for the NHL, there are a number of factors one can choose to consider (or ignore). They include, but are not limited to:
Recent Performance
One of the easiest methods of research and fairly common sense - athletes and teams that have been performing in a certain way would seemingly be more inclined to continue performing at that level. If you're looking for a guy to get over 2.5 shots on goal, it will help you feel more confident in his chances if he has been hitting 3+ shots per game fairly regularly.
Past Performance vs Opponent
Another fairly common-sense metric and one that understandably carries a lot of weight with folks researching a wide variety of player props, not just NHL. Some athletes just seem to show up (or disappear) vs certain opponents. Maybe it's due to the scheme the other team employs, maybe it's the context (some players like to show out vs the "big name" teams for example), it could be their team's rival, or maybe there is a personal connection (team that drafted them, traded them, slept with their college girlfriend, etc). Regardless of the reason why, it is useful to know if a player has a history of performing a certain way vs their opponent.
Game/Team Matchup
Similar to considering the individual athlete's past performance vs their opponent, looking at the overall matchup between the two teams can be useful. Does their team shoot a lot? Does their opponent give up a lot of shots? If you're looking at point props, how often is their team scoring? Who is in net for the opposing team? Do they tend to give up a lot of goals? This can even extend to looking into how often the teams are either getting or giving up power play opportunities or whether or not they are on a back-to-back or a long road trip. Having context for the game is helpful in making decisions on what player props to play.
Home vs Away Stats
Kaprizov, MacKinnon, Huberdeau - all guys that at some point in the last year or so went on shots on goal runs on home ice that were statistically significant and marked compared to their performance on the road. If you could get Kaprizov over 3.5, Mack over 4.5, or Huberdeau over 2.5 shots when they were at home, you were in business. Those are just a few examples to highlight a very real phenomenon in NHL player props. Some guys (not all) just perform better (or worse) either home or away. Could happen for any number of reasons, though structurally it does make some sense given the slight advantage to home teams, and thus disadvantage to road teams, when it comes to line changes during the game. Regardless, looking at how an athlete performs on the road vs at home can be useful in determining whether to take a particular prop.
This can also be applied more broadly to teams as a whole as some will perform in markedly different ways depending on where they are playing.
Positional Matchups
Some teams may give up a ton of shots per game but not many to defensemen. Others may be stingy with their shots but susceptible to shots from the Center position. While there is debate on the merits of positional matchups, it is useful to know how a team tends to perform against players at different positions on the ice. While I find this information valuable for all positions, in my experience it seems to be most telling regarding which teams do and do not allow shots to defensemen.
Role on the Team
Last but not least, obviously the role a player fills on their team is an important clue to what we can expect from them in any given game. Top 6 Forwards are likely going to see more ice time and opportunities than their teammates on the 3rd and 4th lines, that's just a fact. Players that are a part of their team's power play are going to see both more ice time and arguably more/better shot opportunities. If you are playing point props, it's important to know if the skater you're targeting is part of a line that is generating goals, if not, it may be hard for them to tally a point. These roles and line combinations can change game to game, week to week, sometimes even mid-game if the coach needs to switch things up. However, understanding how a player fits onto their team will help you make more informed wagers.
Caveats
This is not an exhaustive list of things to consider, and it is not foolproof. All hot streaks eventually come to an end. Coaches/players/schemes change year to year. Players have off nights. Averages and trend lines only tell us what is likely to happen, they do not guarantee us anything. Players in great spots sell every night and guys in tough matchups have huge games day in and day out.
Using these methods, using these tools and strategies, is all to help you make the most informed decision you can. The more you understand a thing, the better you can interact with and take advantage of it.
Resources
There are a number of tools and resources I use day in and day out in my NHL research. Some great resources include:
I hope this has been helpful! I'll be back Saturday with more NHL player prop picks.
If you'd like to see my daily matchup charts, additional prop analysis, and other NHL content, please consider giving me a follow on Twitter @fnpropsguy - thanks!
Make your own custom AI models.
Be Smarter. Use AI.