So, we come to Thursday and its now standard massive slate (13 games tonight). Not going to lie, I've been cold the last few days, including another 1-3 outing last night. But these things happen, and I believe we're in a good position to bounce back tonight with a large menu of promising props to choose from.
Burns OVER 3 Shots on Goal
He has been inconsistent of late, but he has also been on the road. Tonight, Burns is back on home ice where he has hit in 5 of 6 games. Averaging 7.4 attempts per game overall, that bumps up to 10.2 attempts per game on home ice. The Hurricanes are averaging 34+ shots per game at home and the Avalanche are averaging 35+ shots allowed per game on the road, including being in the top quarter of the league in shots allowed to defensemen. Given his continued attempt volume and change in venue, I like Burns to get right tonight.
Barkov OVER 3.5 Shots on Goal
I was not going to come right back to the Barkov well tonight but then I saw his shot logs vs Dallas. Here are his last 11 games against them going back to 2019 - 6,5,5,2,4,5,5,5,1,4,4 (9/11). For whatever reason he clearly has their number and besides all that he has hit in 5 straight games, 5 straight home games, and is averaging 6.2 attempts per game (bumped to 6.8 per game on home ice). The Stars are generally good for 33-34 shots allowed per game on the road while the Panthers are averaging an impressive 40+ shots per game on home ice.
Bobrovsky OVER 2.5 Goals Allowed
Before you close the article in disgust, hear me out. Bobrovsky has given up 3+ goals in 7 of his last 8 games. In his career with the Panthers, he has given up 3+ goals in 4 of 6 meetings with the Stars. Dallas for their part has 3+ goals in 7 of their last 8 games and 4 of their last 5 road games. Not your standard player prop, but I like the numbers I'm seeing here.
Kaprizov OVER 4 Shots on Goal
I'm using PrizePicks & Underdog so I have him at 4, it's likely you can find him at 3.5 on many books. Riskier play due to the bump to 4 but I still like this spot for him. The Penguins have been giving up a good number of shots on the road this season while the Wild are still trying to find their footing, particularly on home ice. Minnesota has been billing this game as a matchup between Kaprizov and Crosby and the young star would surely love to deliver a win for the home crowd. He hit in both matchups with Pittsburgh last season, notching 5 shots in each game. With injuries and poor play limiting the Wild's offensive options, look for Kirill the Thrill to shoulder more of the workload as they try to get right.
Rakell OVER 2.5 Shots on Goal
On the flipside of the same game, Rakell is in good position for shots on goal in tonight's matchup with Minnesota. The Wild are top of the league in shots given up to Right Wingers and while Rakell has struggled with consistency lately, at various points he has been one of Pittsburgh's better shooting options and he saw good success vs Minnesota last season, hitting in 3 of 4 matchups.
Pietrangelo OVER 2.5 Shots on Goal
I can't not take a defenseman when they are facing off against the Coyotes. While Arizona is improving as a team, they are still giving up 10+ shots a game to defensemen, placing them squarely in the top portion of the league. Pietrangelo has hit in each of his last 3 games, racking up 13 shots in 23 attempts. He is averaging 6 attempts per game lately and should see plenty of opportunities in 5 on 5 and with the man advantage tonight.
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So, we come to Thursday and its now standard massive slate (13 games tonight). Not going to lie, I've been cold the last few days, including another 1-3 outing last night. But these things happen, and I believe we're in a good position to bounce back tonight with a large menu of promising props to choose from.
He has been inconsistent of late, but he has also been on the road. Tonight, Burns is back on home ice where he has hit in 5 of 6 games. Averaging 7.4 attempts per game overall, that bumps up to 10.2 attempts per game on home ice. The Hurricanes are averaging 34+ shots per game at home and the Avalanche are averaging 35+ shots allowed per game on the road, including being in the top quarter of the league in shots allowed to defensemen. Given his continued attempt volume and change in venue, I like Burns to get right tonight.
Barkov OVER 3.5 Shots on Goal
I was not going to come right back to the Barkov well tonight but then I saw his shot logs vs Dallas. Here are his last 11 games against them going back to 2019 - 6,5,5,2,4,5,5,5,1,4,4 (9/11). For whatever reason he clearly has their number and besides all that he has hit in 5 straight games, 5 straight home games, and is averaging 6.2 attempts per game (bumped to 6.8 per game on home ice). The Stars are generally good for 33-34 shots allowed per game on the road while the Panthers are averaging an impressive 40+ shots per game on home ice.
Bobrovsky OVER 2.5 Goals Allowed
Before you close the article in disgust, hear me out. Bobrovsky has given up 3+ goals in 7 of his last 8 games. In his career with the Panthers, he has given up 3+ goals in 4 of 6 meetings with the Stars. Dallas for their part has 3+ goals in 7 of their last 8 games and 4 of their last 5 road games. Not your standard player prop, but I like the numbers I'm seeing here.
Kaprizov OVER 4 Shots on Goal
I'm using PrizePicks & Underdog so I have him at 4, it's likely you can find him at 3.5 on many books. Riskier play due to the bump to 4 but I still like this spot for him. The Penguins have been giving up a good number of shots on the road this season while the Wild are still trying to find their footing, particularly on home ice. Minnesota has been billing this game as a matchup between Kaprizov and Crosby and the young star would surely love to deliver a win for the home crowd. He hit in both matchups with Pittsburgh last season, notching 5 shots in each game. With injuries and poor play limiting the Wild's offensive options, look for Kirill the Thrill to shoulder more of the workload as they try to get right.
Rakell OVER 2.5 Shots on Goal
On the flipside of the same game, Rakell is in good position for shots on goal in tonight's matchup with Minnesota. The Wild are top of the league in shots given up to Right Wingers and while Rakell has struggled with consistency lately, at various points he has been one of Pittsburgh's better shooting options and he saw good success vs Minnesota last season, hitting in 3 of 4 matchups.
Pietrangelo OVER 2.5 Shots on Goal
I can't not take a defenseman when they are facing off against the Coyotes. While Arizona is improving as a team, they are still giving up 10+ shots a game to defensemen, placing them squarely in the top portion of the league. Pietrangelo has hit in each of his last 3 games, racking up 13 shots in 23 attempts. He is averaging 6 attempts per game lately and should see plenty of opportunities in 5 on 5 and with the man advantage tonight.
Whether you are a returning reader or checking out my stuff for the first time, thank you for taking the time to read this. Please click the trophy icon in the bottom corner if you're so inclined.
If you'd like to see my daily matchup charts, additional prop analysis, and other NHL content, please consider giving me a follow on Twitter @fnpropsguy - thanks!
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