Pick #4: Cal Stevenson over 0.5 SB (+950) DK
This pick is a bit like calling my shot. It really has no business being my LIIC pick and it's not my highest rated play but I think the value is there and it should be closer to +600.
Stevenson is leading off which he doesn't usually get the chance to do. He is a rookie who had 15 steals in 73 games in the minors before getting called up and is 1 for 1 in steals in the bigs. He faces Pablo Lopez / Jacob Stallings. Stallings barely throws out 15% of runners so the question is whether he can get on and run against Lopez. Lopez was lights out the first 10 games of the year (sub 1.50 ERA) but over the past 14-15 starts has been pretty average with an ERA around 4. He is also a fastball / changeup guy who is prone to losing control lately and throwing the changeup into the dirt which really helps would be stealers.
The A's are well out of it and I believe trying to see what they have in their young guys. There is no reason not to let Stevenson run and as long as he gets any kind of jump he should make it. I think the odds are too good to pass up (also a lottery ticket SGP with Tony Kemp is ~150-1.)
Let's see if we can get a bit lucky tonight and cash a +950 with Cal Stevenson to steal a base.
Pick #4: Cal Stevenson over 0.5 SB (+950) DK
This pick is a bit like calling my shot. It really has no business being my LIIC pick and it's not my highest rated play but I think the value is there and it should be closer to +600.
Stevenson is leading off which he doesn't usually get the chance to do. He is a rookie who had 15 steals in 73 games in the minors before getting called up and is 1 for 1 in steals in the bigs. He faces Pablo Lopez / Jacob Stallings. Stallings barely throws out 15% of runners so the question is whether he can get on and run against Lopez. Lopez was lights out the first 10 games of the year (sub 1.50 ERA) but over the past 14-15 starts has been pretty average with an ERA around 4. He is also a fastball / changeup guy who is prone to losing control lately and throwing the changeup into the dirt which really helps would be stealers.
The A's are well out of it and I believe trying to see what they have in their young guys. There is no reason not to let Stevenson run and as long as he gets any kind of jump he should make it. I think the odds are too good to pass up (also a lottery ticket SGP with Tony Kemp is ~150-1.)
Let's see if we can get a bit lucky tonight and cash a +950 with Cal Stevenson to steal a base.
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