I hit on a stolen base play in discord yesterday and figured I'd try to keep it going posting here.
Two main games:
Wash - CHC -- Corbin gives up a lot of steals and a lot of baserunners. Tonight Barrera is catching for the Nats and he has given up 10 steals without a CS this year. Teams typically run on him and the combo tonight is the highest rated for my algorithm. Unfortunately the Cubs don't run a ton but that usually means good value. The best play is Hoerner and you can get him around +500 right now. Second tier guys are Madrigal (850), Wisdom (700), Morel (900). I put 2 units on Hoerner and 1 on the other guys. If anyone of them steals its a winning game.
BOS - PIT -- The second game I have not played yet and will only play if Plawecki is the catcher for the Red Sox. If that happens then it will elevate Pivetta from a guy from below my threshold to play to above and it would make Oneil Cruz (650) and Bryan Reynolds (1150) as 1 unit plays.
Finally, I put 1 unit every night on Bubba Thompson on Texas. He is one of the fastest and best stolen base guys in the majors he just hits 9th and can't get on base. When he does he steals. For now his odds continue to be around 400-500 every game meaning 1 steal a week makes him profitable. Eventually his number will come down but for now, he's a daily play.
With 2 units on Hoerner is 8 units total, if Cruz steals it's basically breakeven. Anyone else besides Thompson and it's a winning night. My pizza money retirement parlay is Edman, Cruz, Hoerner and Thompson to all steal but that's basically a lottery ticket.
I hit on a stolen base play in discord yesterday and figured I'd try to keep it going posting here.
Two main games:
Wash - CHC -- Corbin gives up a lot of steals and a lot of baserunners. Tonight Barrera is catching for the Nats and he has given up 10 steals without a CS this year. Teams typically run on him and the combo tonight is the highest rated for my algorithm. Unfortunately the Cubs don't run a ton but that usually means good value. The best play is Hoerner and you can get him around +500 right now. Second tier guys are Madrigal (850), Wisdom (700), Morel (900). I put 2 units on Hoerner and 1 on the other guys. If anyone of them steals its a winning game.
BOS - PIT -- The second game I have not played yet and will only play if Plawecki is the catcher for the Red Sox. If that happens then it will elevate Pivetta from a guy from below my threshold to play to above and it would make Oneil Cruz (650) and Bryan Reynolds (1150) as 1 unit plays.
Finally, I put 1 unit every night on Bubba Thompson on Texas. He is one of the fastest and best stolen base guys in the majors he just hits 9th and can't get on base. When he does he steals. For now his odds continue to be around 400-500 every game meaning 1 steal a week makes him profitable. Eventually his number will come down but for now, he's a daily play.
With 2 units on Hoerner is 8 units total, if Cruz steals it's basically breakeven. Anyone else besides Thompson and it's a winning night. My pizza money retirement parlay is Edman, Cruz, Hoerner and Thompson to all steal but that's basically a lottery ticket.
Share your best bets!