Pick 8: Merrill Kelly Strikeouts Over 3.5 (-155)
Colorado remain at Home tonight after their recent series win over the Dodgers, taking the first two games before losing the last. To put it kindly, the Rockies have been inconsistent at best this season and need some good results to turn the ship around. I'm concerned for them that tonight may not be their night though.
Last time Kelly started against the Rockies was less than 2 months ago, in Arizona, and he threw a total of 8 strikeouts for his best performance of the season in that regard. Kelly has thrown 4+ Ks in 12/15 starts this season with an average of 4.73 strikeouts per game. That 80% hit rate for Merrill is backed up on the Rockies' side who have struck out 4+ times to Right Handed Starters in 10 of their last 14 games (71%). Their average strikeouts per game against RHSP last month was 5.64 per game.
The implied odds from this -155 option today is ~60%, with the Rockies sporting their 71% hit rate and Kelly rounding things off with his 80% season hit rate. For two teams at the bottom of their division, I'll side with the consistent pitcher today and say Kelly strikes out 4 (and likely more) Colorado batters.
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Pick 8: Merrill Kelly Strikeouts Over 3.5 (-155)
Colorado remain at Home tonight after their recent series win over the Dodgers, taking the first two games before losing the last. To put it kindly, the Rockies have been inconsistent at best this season and need some good results to turn the ship around. I'm concerned for them that tonight may not be their night though.
Last time Kelly started against the Rockies was less than 2 months ago, in Arizona, and he threw a total of 8 strikeouts for his best performance of the season in that regard. Kelly has thrown 4+ Ks in 12/15 starts this season with an average of 4.73 strikeouts per game. That 80% hit rate for Merrill is backed up on the Rockies' side who have struck out 4+ times to Right Handed Starters in 10 of their last 14 games (71%). Their average strikeouts per game against RHSP last month was 5.64 per game.
The implied odds from this -155 option today is ~60%, with the Rockies sporting their 71% hit rate and Kelly rounding things off with his 80% season hit rate. For two teams at the bottom of their division, I'll side with the consistent pitcher today and say Kelly strikes out 4 (and likely more) Colorado batters.
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