It was a sluggish start getting back into the PGA last weekend for me betting on the Travellers. The only pick I got right was Xander Schaufele, unfortunately, it wasn’t outright, I had him to finish in the top 20.
This week the tour moves to Illinois for the John Deere Classic. I am going to break the event down below and offer some picks looking to bounce back this weekend.
Tournament Information:
Event History:
This event has been sponsored by John Deere since 1999 and has been played at TPC Deere Run since 2000.
The John Deere Classic has seen a couple of multiple-time winners since the tournament has moved to TPC Deere Run. One 3-time winner in Steve Stricker who won it back to back to back in 2009, 2010 & 2011, and one 2-time winner in Jordan Spieth who won it in 2013 & 2015.
John Deere Classic Past 5 Winners:
2021: Lucas Glover (-19); 2019 Dylan Frittelli (-21) 2018: Michael Kim (-27)
2017: Bryson DeChambeau (-18); 2016: Ryan Moore (-22);
Past 3 Cut Lines:
2021: -4; 2019: -3; 2018: -3.
Lead Score Progression:
2021: Round 1 -8 / Round 2 -13 / Round 3 -16 / Round 4 -19
2019: Round 1 -9 / Round 2 -13 / Round 3 -16 / Round 4 -21
2018: Round 1 -9 / Round 2 -15 / Round 3 -22 / Round 4 -27.
Lowest Winning Score: Michael Kim (-27)
Largest Margin of Victory: Michael Kim (8 Strokes)
Playoff Information: Has gone to a playoff 6 times since 2000. Most recently in 2015.
Course Information:
TPC Deere Run is a par 71 track that plays about 7,258 yards. This course requires some length off of the tee, but there is no need for excessive distance. TPC Deere Run’s landing zones are filled with bunkers along the fairway, and there are quite a few doglegs around this course.
TPC Deere Run has some bigger greens, but there is not much room to miss them left or right, water runs right up next to 3 of the greens on this course, and the rest are surrounded by bunkers as their only protection.
Even though this course requires some distance, driving accuracy is going to be the more important piece this weekend. TPC Deere Run’s dog legs and tough approach shots will require being in a good spot off of the tee. I think a major key this weekend will be creating good angles for approach shots off of the tee, as I mentioned some of these approach shots are going to be very demanding, even though the greens are bigger in size, players missing these greens could end up in a heap of trouble.
Players that find the right part of the fairway will have a ton of green to look at for their approach shot. Statistically, this course isn’t as demanding in the approach category, but I think something that is going to always be needed to win golf tournaments is solid approach shots. With greens this size pars aren’t going to cut it, we are going to see a lot of 2 putt pars this weekend, which is why I am going to be putting a lot of emphasis on proximity to the hole.
Even though a lot of guys will be hitting these greens, as corny as it sounds, birdies are going to win this thing. There will be a lot of birdies looks this weekend, but how close will they be coming from is always the question.
In saying that, someone getting hot with the flat stick is not out of the question. TPC Deere Run’s greens don’t appear overly difficult compared to some of the greens we see on tour. This is one event where guys who excel with the flat stick can shine.
Feature Holes:
Hole #2: This is a stunning par 5, that starts off with a tee shot elevated 50 feet from the landing zone. Players will get rewarded with distance off the tee, but there is a wetland that runs along the left side of the fairway, and a bunker on the front right of the green to protect the front edge. Players better are sure they can carry the front edge of the green before going for two, but with a good drive, I think you might see some changes to score here.
Hole #10: This is another par five that plays at 596 yards. The fairway slopes left to right to a green that is protected by a pond on the right-hand side, and 3 bunkers lining the left side of the fairway inside of 100 yards, the last one is to the left of the green. The whole is going to require a ton of strategy, as it also has one of the smaller greens on the course. The length and the danger are going to require some planning on how you want to attack this green.
Hole #16: This par 3 is on a bluff 50 feet above the rock river, this hole is all carry, as the front left of the green is protected by a massive bunker, and the right side is protected by a bunker. A relatively short par 3, I think we could see some excitement this weekend.
Hole 18: The closing hole requires a demanding tee shot towards a massive fairway bunker, which then doglegs to the right. The green is protected by a pond on the left-hand side and two bunkers on the right side of the green. With a grandstand in the back, players are going to stay focused to close out rounds strong.
Key Statistics:
Driving Accuracy
SG: Approach
Proximity to the Hole
SG: Putting (Bentgrass)
Par 4 Scoring
Bogey Avoidance
Driving Distance
Official Picks:
The picks this week feel a bit like throwing darts, there isn’t much depth to this field so I am going to take a couple of bigger swings this week.
Outrights (Total Risk: 0.64u - All Plays to Win 8.00u):
Glover has had a ton of success at TPC Deere Run, he is the 2021 John Deere Classic champion, but outside of that, he has a T10 finish and a T25 finish in 2019 and 2017.
Glover is very accurate off of the tee and has made 5 straight cuts. TPC Deere Run has already seen 2 multiple-time winners, I think Glover has another strong performance here this weekend on a course he has had a ton of success on.
Svensson has been playing some good golf recently, he has made 5 straight cuts, and has placed him inside the top 30 in his last 2 starts. Svennson has only played in the John Deere Classic once in 2019 but finished T18.
Svennson is accurate off of the tee and ranks T37 in Proximity to the Hole, he is consistently giving himself birdie chances. Recently, Svennson has been getting better on the greens as well as gaining strokes with the flat stick in 5 straight starts.
Laird seems to enjoy playing TPC Deere Run, in 2019 he finished T37 and in 2021 he finished T28th. Laird is also coming off of a strong showing at the Travellers Championship.
He is extremely accurate off of the tee, and strong in SG: Approaching the green. He is going to find himself with plenty of looks at birdie, if he can get hot on the greens, Laird could very well find himself in the mix on Sunday.
Huh has a mixed bag of results here at TPC Deere Run, he has a T7 finish, but also a 50th, 64th, and a missed cut. But Huh has been playing some great golf recently, he has finished inside the top 15 in 2 of his last 3 starts, and inside the top 25 in all 3 of those starts.
Huh has gained strokes off the tee, and on approach in three straight starts, he started to figure out this stretch of bentgrass greens on tour, this is more of a gut feeling, but I think he can make a run.
Moore has a great track record at TPC Deere Run, he won the event back in 2016, finished T18 in 2019, and T2 last year. Moore has been playing some decent golf recently making 5 straight cuts and finishing in the top 50 in 3 of those 5 events.
Moore is very accurate off of the tee, and something about this course obviously suits his eye. With this extremely weak field, I am going to take a big shot here, I like Moore to be in the mix this weekend.
Placements: (Total Risk:2.52u - All Plays To Win 1.00u)
Long has played in this event twice, making the cut both times. Last year in 2021 Long was able to place T23. Coming into this event he finished just outside the top 20 in his last to starts (25,21), but already has 4 T20 finishes this season.
Long is very accurate off of the tee and is a great putter. Last weekend at the Travellers Championship he gained 2.27 strokes putting, if he can do that again this weekend, I think T20 is very attainable.
Reavie is coming off of a great weekend at the Travellers Championship where he finished T8th. Reavie has finished inside the T20 in 3 of his last 5 starts, and one of those missed T20s was a 27th place finish.
Reavie has been playing great golf recently and has a decent track record at TPC Deere Run. I expect another steady weekend here from Reavie.
Duncan finished just outside the top 40 last weekend at the Travellers. He has been playing some pretty good golf recently, he has 3 top 20 finishes in his last 7 starts on the tour, and has a pretty good track record on TPC Deere Run.
Duncan is another very accurate player off of the tee and has gained strokes on approach in 6 of his last 7 starts on tour, I think this course sets up perfectly for him to have a good weekend.
Armour has finished inside the top 40 in 7 of his last 11 appearances on tour, and many of those have much tougher fields than this one. Armour has struggled on TPC Deere Run in years past but is playing so well recently that I thought he was worth a shot.
Once again, Armour is a guy who is very accurate off of the tee and is going to give himself good looks at the green, I think this play is all about if he can get past his mental block with this golf course and make it past the cut.
It was a sluggish start getting back into the PGA last weekend for me betting on the Travellers. The only pick I got right was Xander Schaufele, unfortunately, it wasn’t outright, I had him to finish in the top 20.
This week the tour moves to Illinois for the John Deere Classic. I am going to break the event down below and offer some picks looking to bounce back this weekend.
Tournament Information:
Location: Silvis, Illinois
Course: TPC Deere Run
Par: 71
Length: 7258
Greens: Bentgrass
Rough: Kentucky Bentgrass
Fairways: Bentgrass
Stimpmeter: 11 ft
Bunkers: 78
Water Hazards: 3
Event History:
This event has been sponsored by John Deere since 1999 and has been played at TPC Deere Run since 2000.
The John Deere Classic has seen a couple of multiple-time winners since the tournament has moved to TPC Deere Run. One 3-time winner in Steve Stricker who won it back to back to back in 2009, 2010 & 2011, and one 2-time winner in Jordan Spieth who won it in 2013 & 2015.
John Deere Classic Past 5 Winners:
2021: Lucas Glover (-19); 2019 Dylan Frittelli (-21) 2018: Michael Kim (-27)
2017: Bryson DeChambeau (-18); 2016: Ryan Moore (-22);
Past 3 Cut Lines:
2021: -4; 2019: -3; 2018: -3.
Lead Score Progression:
2021: Round 1 -8 / Round 2 -13 / Round 3 -16 / Round 4 -19
2019: Round 1 -9 / Round 2 -13 / Round 3 -16 / Round 4 -21
2018: Round 1 -9 / Round 2 -15 / Round 3 -22 / Round 4 -27.
Lowest Winning Score: Michael Kim (-27)
Largest Margin of Victory: Michael Kim (8 Strokes)
Playoff Information: Has gone to a playoff 6 times since 2000. Most recently in 2015.
Course Information:
TPC Deere Run is a par 71 track that plays about 7,258 yards. This course requires some length off of the tee, but there is no need for excessive distance. TPC Deere Run’s landing zones are filled with bunkers along the fairway, and there are quite a few doglegs around this course.
TPC Deere Run has some bigger greens, but there is not much room to miss them left or right, water runs right up next to 3 of the greens on this course, and the rest are surrounded by bunkers as their only protection.
Even though this course requires some distance, driving accuracy is going to be the more important piece this weekend. TPC Deere Run’s dog legs and tough approach shots will require being in a good spot off of the tee. I think a major key this weekend will be creating good angles for approach shots off of the tee, as I mentioned some of these approach shots are going to be very demanding, even though the greens are bigger in size, players missing these greens could end up in a heap of trouble.
Players that find the right part of the fairway will have a ton of green to look at for their approach shot. Statistically, this course isn’t as demanding in the approach category, but I think something that is going to always be needed to win golf tournaments is solid approach shots. With greens this size pars aren’t going to cut it, we are going to see a lot of 2 putt pars this weekend, which is why I am going to be putting a lot of emphasis on proximity to the hole.
Even though a lot of guys will be hitting these greens, as corny as it sounds, birdies are going to win this thing. There will be a lot of birdies looks this weekend, but how close will they be coming from is always the question.
In saying that, someone getting hot with the flat stick is not out of the question. TPC Deere Run’s greens don’t appear overly difficult compared to some of the greens we see on tour. This is one event where guys who excel with the flat stick can shine.
Feature Holes:
Hole #2: This is a stunning par 5, that starts off with a tee shot elevated 50 feet from the landing zone. Players will get rewarded with distance off the tee, but there is a wetland that runs along the left side of the fairway, and a bunker on the front right of the green to protect the front edge. Players better are sure they can carry the front edge of the green before going for two, but with a good drive, I think you might see some changes to score here.
Hole #10: This is another par five that plays at 596 yards. The fairway slopes left to right to a green that is protected by a pond on the right-hand side, and 3 bunkers lining the left side of the fairway inside of 100 yards, the last one is to the left of the green. The whole is going to require a ton of strategy, as it also has one of the smaller greens on the course. The length and the danger are going to require some planning on how you want to attack this green.
Hole #16: This par 3 is on a bluff 50 feet above the rock river, this hole is all carry, as the front left of the green is protected by a massive bunker, and the right side is protected by a bunker. A relatively short par 3, I think we could see some excitement this weekend.
Hole 18: The closing hole requires a demanding tee shot towards a massive fairway bunker, which then doglegs to the right. The green is protected by a pond on the left-hand side and two bunkers on the right side of the green. With a grandstand in the back, players are going to stay focused to close out rounds strong.
Key Statistics:
Driving Accuracy
SG: Approach
Proximity to the Hole
SG: Putting (Bentgrass)
Par 4 Scoring
Bogey Avoidance
Driving Distance
Official Picks:
The picks this week feel a bit like throwing darts, there isn’t much depth to this field so I am going to take a couple of bigger swings this week.
Outrights (Total Risk: 0.64u - All Plays to Win 8.00u):
Lucas Glover (+5000)
Glover has had a ton of success at TPC Deere Run, he is the 2021 John Deere Classic champion, but outside of that, he has a T10 finish and a T25 finish in 2019 and 2017.
Glover is very accurate off of the tee and has made 5 straight cuts. TPC Deere Run has already seen 2 multiple-time winners, I think Glover has another strong performance here this weekend on a course he has had a ton of success on.
Adam Svensson (+5000)
Svensson has been playing some good golf recently, he has made 5 straight cuts, and has placed him inside the top 30 in his last 2 starts. Svennson has only played in the John Deere Classic once in 2019 but finished T18.
Svennson is accurate off of the tee and ranks T37 in Proximity to the Hole, he is consistently giving himself birdie chances. Recently, Svennson has been getting better on the greens as well as gaining strokes with the flat stick in 5 straight starts.
Martin Laird (+6000)
Laird seems to enjoy playing TPC Deere Run, in 2019 he finished T37 and in 2021 he finished T28th. Laird is also coming off of a strong showing at the Travellers Championship.
He is extremely accurate off of the tee, and strong in SG: Approaching the green. He is going to find himself with plenty of looks at birdie, if he can get hot on the greens, Laird could very well find himself in the mix on Sunday.
John Huh (+6600)
Huh has a mixed bag of results here at TPC Deere Run, he has a T7 finish, but also a 50th, 64th, and a missed cut. But Huh has been playing some great golf recently, he has finished inside the top 15 in 2 of his last 3 starts, and inside the top 25 in all 3 of those starts.
Huh has gained strokes off the tee, and on approach in three straight starts, he started to figure out this stretch of bentgrass greens on tour, this is more of a gut feeling, but I think he can make a run.
Ryan Moore (+11000)
Moore has a great track record at TPC Deere Run, he won the event back in 2016, finished T18 in 2019, and T2 last year. Moore has been playing some decent golf recently making 5 straight cuts and finishing in the top 50 in 3 of those 5 events.
Moore is very accurate off of the tee, and something about this course obviously suits his eye. With this extremely weak field, I am going to take a big shot here, I like Moore to be in the mix this weekend.
Placements: (Total Risk:2.52u - All Plays To Win 1.00u)
Adam Long - Top 20 Finsh (+187)
Long has played in this event twice, making the cut both times. Last year in 2021 Long was able to place T23. Coming into this event he finished just outside the top 20 in his last to starts (25,21), but already has 4 T20 finishes this season.
Long is very accurate off of the tee and is a great putter. Last weekend at the Travellers Championship he gained 2.27 strokes putting, if he can do that again this weekend, I think T20 is very attainable.
Chez Reavie - Top 20 Finish (+240)
Reavie is coming off of a great weekend at the Travellers Championship where he finished T8th. Reavie has finished inside the T20 in 3 of his last 5 starts, and one of those missed T20s was a 27th place finish.
Reavie has been playing great golf recently and has a decent track record at TPC Deere Run. I expect another steady weekend here from Reavie.
Tyler Duncan - Top 40 FInish (+130)
Duncan finished just outside the top 40 last weekend at the Travellers. He has been playing some pretty good golf recently, he has 3 top 20 finishes in his last 7 starts on the tour, and has a pretty good track record on TPC Deere Run.
Duncan is another very accurate player off of the tee and has gained strokes on approach in 6 of his last 7 starts on tour, I think this course sets up perfectly for him to have a good weekend.
Ryan Armour - Top 40 Finish (+137)
Armour has finished inside the top 40 in 7 of his last 11 appearances on tour, and many of those have much tougher fields than this one. Armour has struggled on TPC Deere Run in years past but is playing so well recently that I thought he was worth a shot.
Once again, Armour is a guy who is very accurate off of the tee and is going to give himself good looks at the green, I think this play is all about if he can get past his mental block with this golf course and make it past the cut.
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