Pick #2: Luis Robert over 0.5 SB (+600) DK
The streak has to be broken. My stolen base model has been very profitable this year (I promise!) despite going I think now 0-6 when I post picks here. The beauty with SB picks is at +600 a win tonight wipes out all the previous misses and gets back to even which is a nice coincidence since I'm giving it another shot with Luis Robert (+600), assuming he starts tonight.
Rony Garcia is a young right hander who is still looking how to stick in the big leagues. Not uncommonly, he struggles to hold runners on. Since 2019 across minors and majors he has averaged slightly below 1 stolen base allowed per 9. This would put him in the bottom 15% of all major league pitchers if it held throughout an entire season. I expect Haase to be the catcher today and he's good, not elite. He throws out about 30% of the runners and my model typically shoots to be successful 22% of the time but the matchup with Garcia alone is good enough.
Robert has been running a lot lately. He goes through stolen base spurts and right now has been running. I believe he had 2 on Saturday and another one yesterday giving him 5 in the past 14 days with 0 caught stealings.
I think the fair number here is in the +350 range so there is a ton of value. It's games like this where my spidey sense wishes I could bet caught stealings as a hedge. But I can't so the best I can do is take him to steal and hope he's successful. I think he will run today and fingers crossed it's a bad throw. At 6-1 it's worth it in my opinion and I'll take Robert to steal as my second pick for LIIC.
Pick #2: Luis Robert over 0.5 SB (+600) DK
The streak has to be broken. My stolen base model has been very profitable this year (I promise!) despite going I think now 0-6 when I post picks here. The beauty with SB picks is at +600 a win tonight wipes out all the previous misses and gets back to even which is a nice coincidence since I'm giving it another shot with Luis Robert (+600), assuming he starts tonight.
Rony Garcia is a young right hander who is still looking how to stick in the big leagues. Not uncommonly, he struggles to hold runners on. Since 2019 across minors and majors he has averaged slightly below 1 stolen base allowed per 9. This would put him in the bottom 15% of all major league pitchers if it held throughout an entire season. I expect Haase to be the catcher today and he's good, not elite. He throws out about 30% of the runners and my model typically shoots to be successful 22% of the time but the matchup with Garcia alone is good enough.
Robert has been running a lot lately. He goes through stolen base spurts and right now has been running. I believe he had 2 on Saturday and another one yesterday giving him 5 in the past 14 days with 0 caught stealings.
I think the fair number here is in the +350 range so there is a ton of value. It's games like this where my spidey sense wishes I could bet caught stealings as a hedge. But I can't so the best I can do is take him to steal and hope he's successful. I think he will run today and fingers crossed it's a bad throw. At 6-1 it's worth it in my opinion and I'll take Robert to steal as my second pick for LIIC.
No need to sift through the clutter.
Just use the prop cheatsheet.