Pick #3: Cedric Mullins over 0.5 SB (+310) DK
Back to trying for stolen bases here even though it feels like I only hit when I don't post the picks. Mullins' matchup tonight is really strong. He faces George Kirby who has had 3 runners attempt a steal on him in 20 innings. 2 of the 3 were successful but teams are definitely not shy to run on him despite the small sample size. In the minors in 2021 he allowed a stolen base about once every 6 innings. That would rank as one of the worst in MLB if that pace continues. While I was hoping Torrens would start at catcher instead its Raleigh. Torrens is abysmal but Raleigh is no Yadier Molina. Teams have been running on him and seeing about an 80% success rate, well above the league average.
Finally, stolen bases tend to come in bunches and Mullins has been running a lot lately. He has 5 in his last 53 at bats and I have his implied odds roughly around +260. There's definitely value in the +310 line and since he is leading off he will get 4-5 at bats. The Orioles as a team run early and often. Mateo is a good bet tonight but since he is hitting 9th and Mullins is hitting leadoff I think Mullins is the best bet and my pick to get in the win column with this season of LIIC.
Pick #3: Cedric Mullins over 0.5 SB (+310) DK
Back to trying for stolen bases here even though it feels like I only hit when I don't post the picks. Mullins' matchup tonight is really strong. He faces George Kirby who has had 3 runners attempt a steal on him in 20 innings. 2 of the 3 were successful but teams are definitely not shy to run on him despite the small sample size. In the minors in 2021 he allowed a stolen base about once every 6 innings. That would rank as one of the worst in MLB if that pace continues. While I was hoping Torrens would start at catcher instead its Raleigh. Torrens is abysmal but Raleigh is no Yadier Molina. Teams have been running on him and seeing about an 80% success rate, well above the league average.
Finally, stolen bases tend to come in bunches and Mullins has been running a lot lately. He has 5 in his last 53 at bats and I have his implied odds roughly around +260. There's definitely value in the +310 line and since he is leading off he will get 4-5 at bats. The Orioles as a team run early and often. Mateo is a good bet tonight but since he is hitting 9th and Mullins is hitting leadoff I think Mullins is the best bet and my pick to get in the win column with this season of LIIC.
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