Pick #1: Orioles First 5 Inning Team Total over 1.5 (-135) DK

The Orioles are in Boston for the third straight game today as they take on Nick Pivetta.  Pivetta pitched a complete game giving up 1 earned run two starts ago.  However, that was an anomaly, that's not who he is and is not who he has been throughout his career.  Even with that performance his ERA at home 4.3 which is a touch higher than it is on the road.  He also has been much worse during the day with an ERA of 5.5 across 4 daytime starts this year. 

Finally Pivetta faces an Orioles team that has hit him well over their careers. 

Mountcastle has 2 homers in 15 at bats, Mullins has 7 hits in 18 ABs including a double and a homer.  Mancini doesnt have good numbers but has taken Pivetta deep against only 1k and Urias has 2 hits in 4 at bats. 

Finally add to all of this you can run on Pivetta / Vazquez and the Orioles have been running quite a bit lately.  I expect Pivetta to give up at least a few earned runs and the 1.5 number is too low for this game in my opinion.