These two teams squared off yesterday in a game that finished 14-10 for the Royals. Tonight we're going to see a pitching matchup between Germann Marquez for the Rockies and Carlos Hernandez for the Royals. I've got 2 plays on this game and I am going to break them down below.
Play #1: Under 11.5 Runs (-110) - Bet365
As I just mentioned, these two teams scored a combined 24 runs yesterday, and this is the typical spot I look to play an under in, and my Pine Sports model agrees with me, my model has given them under a 53.5% chance of hitting.
Another metric I always like to look at is the tickets/money splits and in this game, 50% of the tickets are on the under, but the under is getting 94% of the money.
Neither of these teams excels at producing scoring chances, the Rockies have a wRC+ of 85 against RHP and the Royals have a wRC+ of 76.
Neither pitcher has had an exceptional start to 2022, but coming off of a night where both teams bats were so hot I expect a little bit of regression. The wind will be blowing in from center field tonight to take away from that Coors Field effect.
Play #2: Colorado Rockies Money Line (-150) - Bet365
The Rockies are at home tonight, coming off off a lose. They are sending German Marquez to the mound tonight to try and bounce back. Marquez hasn't had a great start to 2022, but I think his numbers are a little inflated due to him making 4 of his 6 starts @ Coors Field. Marquez throws a lot of stikes, and gets a ton of ground balls.
On the other side Carlos Hernandez hasn't been that impressive either. He ranks in the bottom 2% of the league in K%, and bottom 25% in BB%. He ranks in the bottom 10% in xBA, and does not have much experience pitching in Coors Field.
The Rockies hit the ball hard, and stay up the middle against RHP, and that is a combination for success, but they haven't exactly been rewarded for that yeat this year. The Royals are a power reliant offence, but tonight the wind will be blowing in from left center field tonight, so the ball might not jump the same. I like the Rockies to bounce back and get a win on their home field tonight.
These two teams squared off yesterday in a game that finished 14-10 for the Royals. Tonight we're going to see a pitching matchup between Germann Marquez for the Rockies and Carlos Hernandez for the Royals. I've got 2 plays on this game and I am going to break them down below.
Play #1: Under 11.5 Runs (-110) - Bet365
As I just mentioned, these two teams scored a combined 24 runs yesterday, and this is the typical spot I look to play an under in, and my Pine Sports model agrees with me, my model has given them under a 53.5% chance of hitting.
Another metric I always like to look at is the tickets/money splits and in this game, 50% of the tickets are on the under, but the under is getting 94% of the money.
Neither of these teams excels at producing scoring chances, the Rockies have a wRC+ of 85 against RHP and the Royals have a wRC+ of 76.
Neither pitcher has had an exceptional start to 2022, but coming off of a night where both teams bats were so hot I expect a little bit of regression. The wind will be blowing in from center field tonight to take away from that Coors Field effect.
Play #2: Colorado Rockies Money Line (-150) - Bet365
The Rockies are at home tonight, coming off off a lose. They are sending German Marquez to the mound tonight to try and bounce back. Marquez hasn't had a great start to 2022, but I think his numbers are a little inflated due to him making 4 of his 6 starts @ Coors Field. Marquez throws a lot of stikes, and gets a ton of ground balls.
On the other side Carlos Hernandez hasn't been that impressive either. He ranks in the bottom 2% of the league in K%, and bottom 25% in BB%. He ranks in the bottom 10% in xBA, and does not have much experience pitching in Coors Field.
The Rockies hit the ball hard, and stay up the middle against RHP, and that is a combination for success, but they haven't exactly been rewarded for that yeat this year. The Royals are a power reliant offence, but tonight the wind will be blowing in from left center field tonight, so the ball might not jump the same. I like the Rockies to bounce back and get a win on their home field tonight.
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