Tonight the Orioles and the Yankees will be playing the second game of a three games series in the Bronx. The opening game of the series finished in a 12-8 win for the New York Yankees. 

Tonight we're going to see a pitching matchup between right-hander Tyler Wells and lefty Jordan Montgomery.

So far this season, the Orioles have hit left-handed pitching well. They rank 23rd in wRC+ against LHP, but when I dug a little bit deeper into their stats, I feel like they haven't been rewarded on the scoreboard for how well they have performed in other areas against lefties. 

The Orioles rank 8th in line drive percentage and 6th in hard-hit percentages. The reason why the Orioles struggle to score runs is that their strikeout percentage is so high. However, Montgomery isn't known as a guy that is going to, in fact, he only has an 18.3% strikeout percentage through three starts this season, and the Orioles have a handful of batters who have had success against him.

As for the Orioles, Tyler Wells will be taking the mound. He has had a rough start to 2022, but the one bright spot was actually a start against the New York Yankees, where he went 4.0 innings only allowing 3 hits and giving up 0 runs. 

At this point, we all know what the Yankee's offense is, they can be a streaky team that is very power reliant. The Yankees are coming off of a game where they just scored 12 runs, and in spots after an offensive explosion with any team, I typically look at the next game as a let down spot.

The Orioles are 2-3 ATS against the Yankees over their last 5 matchups, and both ATS wins came when the Yankees scored 5+ runs in their previous matchup. 

My Pine Sports model has given the Orioles Run Line a 54.32% of hitting. The sharps seem to be liking the Orioles early as well. At the time of writing, the Orioles Moneyline is taking 28% of bets and is getting 87% of the money. 

I like the Orioles to keep this one within the +1.5 runs tonight at EVEN (+100) money.