On a massive night in the NHL, there's a lot to sift through. Our focus here is goal-scoring data to power a few points prop plays. I have five.
I like to start on Pine by looking at how each team has fared in its location from the past month. We've done this a few times now, so let's just get right to the charts.
We'll start with the home teams.
Home Teams: Goals Scored Per Game Last Month in Location
Road Teams: Goals Allowed Per Game Last Month in Location
Tonight seems to have the potential for a massive boon from the home teams. You can interact with these charts to see exact numbers, but we have so many teams averaging 3.5 goals or higher going against teams who have had issues slowing down goals.
Five teams I want a piece of based on this data:
- Florida vs ANA
- Boston vs STL
- Nashville vs SJ
- Toronto vs BUF
- Detroit vs OTT
For Florida, I like Aleksander Barkov to continue his points at home. As you can see from the below chart, he's rolling when the Panthers play host, with 2+ points in eight of his last nine.
Betting 1u: Aleksander Barkov over 1.5 points (+104 FD)
I love the intersection from the above charts for the past month of Boston averaging over 4 goals per game at home and St. Louis allowing 4 goals/game on the road
There are multiple angles to attack this game off that data, but I'm following the best odds for a guy on Boston's top line, Jake DeBrusk.
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DeBrusk has a point in six of his last ten games, including four straight at home. We get solid odds here for a guy skating alongside Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand.
Betting to win 1u: Jake DeBrusk over 0.5 points (-118 FD)
Nashville is in a great spot, but my favorite target is heavily juiced. We will be pairing him in a parlay with one of our road targets, so we'll revisit this team in just a bit.
Toronto is targeted for the same reason we looked at Boston. They are averaging 4.1 goals per game in their last month at home, while Buffalo is seeing four goals per game against them on the road.
We use this data to load up a superstar in Auston Matthews, who is absolutely rolling right now.
The Pine projection tool helps to showcase how dominant Matthews has been lately, with 2+ points in seven of his past eight games.
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Projected to finish with 2.13 points tonight, I'm comfortable taking another 1.5 points line. His production warrants it.
Betting to win 1u: Auston Matthews over 1.5 points (-105 DK)
Jakub Vrana has been on a tear for Detroit lately, and he's even better at home, which is exactly why he finds himself a target tonight against an Ottawa team allowing 3.4 road goals per game in the last month.
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Pine's robot loves the over here, with a projected moneyline at -200. Vrana has a point in seven of ten and 10 points in 8 home games.
Betting to win 1u: Jakub Vrana over 0.5 points (-118 FD)
Now, let's turn our attention to the road teams to find ourselves some potential scoring options.
Away Teams: Goals Scored Per Game Last Month in Location
Home Teams: Goals Allowed Per Game Last Month in Location
There's only one intersection here that stands out to me, and that's favoring Ottawa against Detroit. Detroit is tied for the most goals allowed at home in the past month, and the Senators are the lone team from above that has respectable goal-scoring averages in an advantageous spot.
It's Josh Norris that clearly rises above the rest, and the Pine robot most definitely agrees.
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Norris has a point in eight of his last ten, and is projected to finish with 1.44 tonight. The win-rate is set at 76.42% with implied odds of -324.
His -170 odds certainly seem like a bargain with this data, but that's too rich for me.
We alluded to this above, but we have a parlay piece from the Nashville game to pair with a Norris point.
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Filip Forsberg is always a good look for a point, with one in seven of his last ten games and eight straight home games.
Betting 1u: Norris/Forsberg points parlay (+128 CZR)
I hope you can find something helpful from the above list! By all means, use these targets to find your own favorite players, there should be enough points to go around.
Recap:
- Barkov over 1.5 points (+104)
- DeBrusk point (-118)
- Matthews over 1.5 points (-105)
- Vrana point (-118)
- Norris/Forsberg points parlay (+128)
On a massive night in the NHL, there's a lot to sift through. Our focus here is goal-scoring data to power a few points prop plays. I have five.
I like to start on Pine by looking at how each team has fared in its location from the past month. We've done this a few times now, so let's just get right to the charts.
We'll start with the home teams.
Home Teams: Goals Scored Per Game Last Month in Location
Road Teams: Goals Allowed Per Game Last Month in Location
Tonight seems to have the potential for a massive boon from the home teams. You can interact with these charts to see exact numbers, but we have so many teams averaging 3.5 goals or higher going against teams who have had issues slowing down goals.
Five teams I want a piece of based on this data:
For Florida, I like Aleksander Barkov to continue his points at home. As you can see from the below chart, he's rolling when the Panthers play host, with 2+ points in eight of his last nine.
Betting 1u: Aleksander Barkov over 1.5 points (+104 FD)
I love the intersection from the above charts for the past month of Boston averaging over 4 goals per game at home and St. Louis allowing 4 goals/game on the road
There are multiple angles to attack this game off that data, but I'm following the best odds for a guy on Boston's top line, Jake DeBrusk.
DeBrusk has a point in six of his last ten games, including four straight at home. We get solid odds here for a guy skating alongside Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand.
Betting to win 1u: Jake DeBrusk over 0.5 points (-118 FD)
Nashville is in a great spot, but my favorite target is heavily juiced. We will be pairing him in a parlay with one of our road targets, so we'll revisit this team in just a bit.
Toronto is targeted for the same reason we looked at Boston. They are averaging 4.1 goals per game in their last month at home, while Buffalo is seeing four goals per game against them on the road.
We use this data to load up a superstar in Auston Matthews, who is absolutely rolling right now.
The Pine projection tool helps to showcase how dominant Matthews has been lately, with 2+ points in seven of his past eight games.
Projected to finish with 2.13 points tonight, I'm comfortable taking another 1.5 points line. His production warrants it.
Betting to win 1u: Auston Matthews over 1.5 points (-105 DK)
Jakub Vrana has been on a tear for Detroit lately, and he's even better at home, which is exactly why he finds himself a target tonight against an Ottawa team allowing 3.4 road goals per game in the last month.
Pine's robot loves the over here, with a projected moneyline at -200. Vrana has a point in seven of ten and 10 points in 8 home games.
Betting to win 1u: Jakub Vrana over 0.5 points (-118 FD)
Now, let's turn our attention to the road teams to find ourselves some potential scoring options.
Away Teams: Goals Scored Per Game Last Month in Location
Home Teams: Goals Allowed Per Game Last Month in Location
There's only one intersection here that stands out to me, and that's favoring Ottawa against Detroit. Detroit is tied for the most goals allowed at home in the past month, and the Senators are the lone team from above that has respectable goal-scoring averages in an advantageous spot.
It's Josh Norris that clearly rises above the rest, and the Pine robot most definitely agrees.
Norris has a point in eight of his last ten, and is projected to finish with 1.44 tonight. The win-rate is set at 76.42% with implied odds of -324.
His -170 odds certainly seem like a bargain with this data, but that's too rich for me.
We alluded to this above, but we have a parlay piece from the Nashville game to pair with a Norris point.
Filip Forsberg is always a good look for a point, with one in seven of his last ten games and eight straight home games.
Betting 1u: Norris/Forsberg points parlay (+128 CZR)
I hope you can find something helpful from the above list! By all means, use these targets to find your own favorite players, there should be enough points to go around.
Recap:
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