It's a massive slate in the NHL tonight, with great-looking options throughout the board.
As with anything, it's important to limit volume where you can. However, I'm not going to avoid placing a bet on an angle I really like just because I have more plays than normal.
I trust the data, this is a long season, and by all means we can make tonight a fantastic one.
When I look to bet on points props, my first stop is always goals scored averages and goals allowed numbers. I break it up by location, I find it makes quite a difference.
Before we get to the players I like, let's highlight how every team looks in their location from the past month's worth of data.
Tonight's Road Teams: Goals Scored Per Game Last Month in Location
Tonight's Home Teams: Goals Allowed Per Game in Location Last Month
We'll pause here. The above two charts can be used to help project road team scoring tonight. The following teams all feel like viable options to me when looking at these numbers. For the most part, I'm looking for a perfect intersection of a team scoring a lot going against a team allowing plenty of goals.
In Philadelphia's case, their opponent (Columbus) is just too good to ignore.
Road Targets for a Points Prop:
- Seattle vs Chicago
- Nashville vs Ottawa
- Toronto vs Dallas
- Philadelphia vs Columbus
Let's circle the home teams worth targeting.
Tonight's Home Teams: Goals Scored Per Game in Location Last Month
Tonight's Road Teams: Goals Allowed Per Game in Location Last Month
Home Targets for a Points Prop:
- Columbus vs Philadelphia
- Dallas vs Toronto
I would normally target New Jersey with an intersection like this, but their best player, Jack Hughes, is out for the year after an injury over the weekend. I don't like the uncertainty that brings.
Disclaimer: I hope you find a utility of your own from these above charts. You could easily use this data to feel confident about betting a few overs or goal-scorers, and maybe even circle teams that aren't sticking out to me. Use this however you so please!
With our teams established, now it becomes who to target. I have four standalone point props and one points parlay.
Jordan Eberle over 0.5 points (-102 FD)
Eberle is on Seattle's top line, gets a Chicago team seeing serious goaltending issues lately, and has a point in five of his last seven road games.
Mitch Marner over 1.5 points (+146 FD)
If you take a look at Pine's player prop projection robot, this is the top play of the day, and for good reason.
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Marner has gone over 1.5 points in eight of his last ten games and is projected at 2.32 tonight at implied odds of -207.
Instead, we get him at +146! On the road, Marner is over this total in nine of his last ten games.
Kevin Hayes over 0.5 points (-124 FD)
This Flyers-Blue Jackets should have plenty of goals, and I like Hayes to keep his success rolling._ZmyUgj8.png)
Hayes has a point in seven of his past ten games, and with no more Claude Giroux in Philly, Hayes has picked up a lot of the slack.
Pine's robot projects Hayes at 1.19 points, tied for the third-highest confidence play of the day on the platform.
+145 Points Parlay (DK): Zach Werenski and Roman Josi over 0.5 points
We combine two defensemen points props here, both in plus-matchups highlighted above and at the top of the chart on Pine's prop tool.
Josi has a point in 14 of his last 16 and he averages 2.2 points per game in his last ten on the road.
Werenski has a point in 16 of his past 20 games and eight of ten at home.
Jamie Benn over 0.5 points (+110 FD)
Benn has been solid for Dallas, with a point in six of his last eight games.
Where he's really shined is at home, with 11 points in his last nine.
That will do it, five plays for me tonight. The value is there, and with projections and trends on our side, we can head into the night confident in the research.
Good luck tonight!
It's a massive slate in the NHL tonight, with great-looking options throughout the board.
As with anything, it's important to limit volume where you can. However, I'm not going to avoid placing a bet on an angle I really like just because I have more plays than normal.
I trust the data, this is a long season, and by all means we can make tonight a fantastic one.
When I look to bet on points props, my first stop is always goals scored averages and goals allowed numbers. I break it up by location, I find it makes quite a difference.
Before we get to the players I like, let's highlight how every team looks in their location from the past month's worth of data.
Tonight's Road Teams: Goals Scored Per Game Last Month in Location
Tonight's Home Teams: Goals Allowed Per Game in Location Last Month
We'll pause here. The above two charts can be used to help project road team scoring tonight. The following teams all feel like viable options to me when looking at these numbers. For the most part, I'm looking for a perfect intersection of a team scoring a lot going against a team allowing plenty of goals.
In Philadelphia's case, their opponent (Columbus) is just too good to ignore.
Road Targets for a Points Prop:
Let's circle the home teams worth targeting.
Tonight's Home Teams: Goals Scored Per Game in Location Last Month
Tonight's Road Teams: Goals Allowed Per Game in Location Last Month
Home Targets for a Points Prop:
I would normally target New Jersey with an intersection like this, but their best player, Jack Hughes, is out for the year after an injury over the weekend. I don't like the uncertainty that brings.
Disclaimer: I hope you find a utility of your own from these above charts. You could easily use this data to feel confident about betting a few overs or goal-scorers, and maybe even circle teams that aren't sticking out to me. Use this however you so please!
With our teams established, now it becomes who to target. I have four standalone point props and one points parlay.
Jordan Eberle over 0.5 points (-102 FD)
Eberle is on Seattle's top line, gets a Chicago team seeing serious goaltending issues lately, and has a point in five of his last seven road games.
Mitch Marner over 1.5 points (+146 FD)
If you take a look at Pine's player prop projection robot, this is the top play of the day, and for good reason.
Marner has gone over 1.5 points in eight of his last ten games and is projected at 2.32 tonight at implied odds of -207.
Instead, we get him at +146! On the road, Marner is over this total in nine of his last ten games.
Kevin Hayes over 0.5 points (-124 FD)
This Flyers-Blue Jackets should have plenty of goals, and I like Hayes to keep his success rolling._ZmyUgj8.png)
Hayes has a point in seven of his past ten games, and with no more Claude Giroux in Philly, Hayes has picked up a lot of the slack.
Pine's robot projects Hayes at 1.19 points, tied for the third-highest confidence play of the day on the platform.
+145 Points Parlay (DK): Zach Werenski and Roman Josi over 0.5 points
We combine two defensemen points props here, both in plus-matchups highlighted above and at the top of the chart on Pine's prop tool.
Josi has a point in 14 of his last 16 and he averages 2.2 points per game in his last ten on the road.
Werenski has a point in 16 of his past 20 games and eight of ten at home.
Jamie Benn over 0.5 points (+110 FD)
Benn has been solid for Dallas, with a point in six of his last eight games.
Where he's really shined is at home, with 11 points in his last nine.
That will do it, five plays for me tonight. The value is there, and with projections and trends on our side, we can head into the night confident in the research.
Good luck tonight!
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