When preparing for three-point props in the NBA, I always begin my search with volume stats.
The most important metric to me is team's three-pointers allowed per game rank.
That logic is simple: target teams who allow the most threes per game and then find a shooter who draws them that evening.
Teams Playing Tonight: Three-Pointers Allowed Per Game Rank
The above, which was easily drawn up by using Pine's explore team data option, showcases every team hitting the hardwood tonight and their league standing for threes allowed per game.
As you can see, we have a ton of good targets to begin our prop hunt.
I'm interested in finding a high-volume shooter from the teams playing each of the below. The bolded team is where our prop picks will preside.
- Milwaukee vs Chicago
- Charlotte vs Miami
- Portland vs Okla City
- Oklahoma City vs Portland
- Minnesota vs Washington
- Orlando vs Cleveland
- Miami vs Charlotte
- Sacramento vs New Orleans
- New Orleans vs Sacramento
- Atlanta vs Toronto
What's actually quite remarkable is that this massive slate has given us every three-point target I typically bet against: these are the ten teams allowing the most threes per game this season.
Now, just because these teams are here doesn't mean I bet against all of them. I'm looking for volume shooters that are opposite these targets. Some teams lack a player with an established and trustworthy baseline of three-point shots. The teams that I'll be avoiding due to this: Washington, Oklahoma City, Charlotte and Sacramento. That leaves six teams for us to target tonight.
Zach Lavine vs Milwaukee (#30)
The Bucks are allowing the most threes per game, so of course we're loading up a Bull, and Zach LaVine brings us the best volume from Chicago.
LaVine is averaging 7.4 three-point attempts per game in his past five. Not shown above is that in two previous games against Milwaukee, he's averaging 3.5 made threes on 8.5 attempts from deep per game.
Betting:
.5u: 3+ threes (-136 FanDuel)
.5u: 4+ threes (+182 FD)
.25u: 5+ threes (+460 FD)
Max Strus vs Charlotte (#29)
We'll have to wait on lines for Strus, as most of the Heat lineup is currently questionable, but including him here as one to remember for this evening.
Strus is averaging 7.2 attempts from long-range per game in his last ten.
Keon Johnson vs Oklahoma City (#27)
I love the value here for Keon Johnson against an Oklahoma City team allowing the fourth-most threes per game.
Look at this recent uptick in volume for Keon Johnson! In his past five games, Johnson is averaging 6.6 three-point attempts per game and has made 3+ in four of them.
Against a defense like the Thunder, I see this as terrific betting value tonight.
Betting:
.5u: 3+ threes (+230 FD)
.5u: 4+ threes (+690 FD)
Darius Garland vs Orlando (#25)
Garland gets a choice matchup tonight in an Orlando team allowing the sixth-most threes per game, a team he's had success against twice this season.
As you can see from above, Garland has had some solid nights lately, going over 3+ threes in four of his past five, averaging 6.4 attempts per game in that span.
He's picked it up in both games against the Magic, averaging 4.0 threes-made in their two previous meetings.
Betting:
.5u: 3+ threes (-108 FD)
.5u: 4+ threes (+270 FD)
CJ McCollum vs Sacramento (#22)
McCollum has been steady for the Pelicans lately, averaging 6.8 attempts from deep in his past five and going over his 2.5 threes line four times.
The Kings are a generous team to the three-point shot, so we load up McCollum tonight.
Betting:
.5u: 3+ threes (-118 FD)
.5u: 4+ threes (+225 FD)
Fred VanVleet vs Atlanta (#21)
We'll wrap with Fred VanVleet, who has had some serious three-point volume lately on Toronto.
As the above illustrates, FVV has chucked up a monstrous 27 attempts from deep in the last two games.
That's volume I want to follow, and his chart shows that isn't out of the norm for the Raptors guard. VanVleet is averaging 9.2 three-point attempts in his last ten.
Betting:
.5u: 4+ threes (+102 FD)
.5u: 5+ threes (+240 FD)
My unit size for these mini-ladders is a personal choice, and I would urge you to follow a strategy that makes sense for you.
Enjoy the games tonight! Here's hoping for some threes throughout the league.
When preparing for three-point props in the NBA, I always begin my search with volume stats.
The most important metric to me is team's three-pointers allowed per game rank.
That logic is simple: target teams who allow the most threes per game and then find a shooter who draws them that evening.
Teams Playing Tonight: Three-Pointers Allowed Per Game Rank
The above, which was easily drawn up by using Pine's explore team data option, showcases every team hitting the hardwood tonight and their league standing for threes allowed per game.
As you can see, we have a ton of good targets to begin our prop hunt.
I'm interested in finding a high-volume shooter from the teams playing each of the below. The bolded team is where our prop picks will preside.
What's actually quite remarkable is that this massive slate has given us every three-point target I typically bet against: these are the ten teams allowing the most threes per game this season.
Now, just because these teams are here doesn't mean I bet against all of them. I'm looking for volume shooters that are opposite these targets. Some teams lack a player with an established and trustworthy baseline of three-point shots. The teams that I'll be avoiding due to this: Washington, Oklahoma City, Charlotte and Sacramento. That leaves six teams for us to target tonight.
Zach Lavine vs Milwaukee (#30)
The Bucks are allowing the most threes per game, so of course we're loading up a Bull, and Zach LaVine brings us the best volume from Chicago.
LaVine is averaging 7.4 three-point attempts per game in his past five. Not shown above is that in two previous games against Milwaukee, he's averaging 3.5 made threes on 8.5 attempts from deep per game.
Betting:
.5u: 3+ threes (-136 FanDuel)
.5u: 4+ threes (+182 FD)
.25u: 5+ threes (+460 FD)
Max Strus vs Charlotte (#29)
We'll have to wait on lines for Strus, as most of the Heat lineup is currently questionable, but including him here as one to remember for this evening.
Strus is averaging 7.2 attempts from long-range per game in his last ten.
Keon Johnson vs Oklahoma City (#27)
I love the value here for Keon Johnson against an Oklahoma City team allowing the fourth-most threes per game.
Look at this recent uptick in volume for Keon Johnson! In his past five games, Johnson is averaging 6.6 three-point attempts per game and has made 3+ in four of them.
Against a defense like the Thunder, I see this as terrific betting value tonight.
Betting:
.5u: 3+ threes (+230 FD)
.5u: 4+ threes (+690 FD)
Darius Garland vs Orlando (#25)
Garland gets a choice matchup tonight in an Orlando team allowing the sixth-most threes per game, a team he's had success against twice this season.
As you can see from above, Garland has had some solid nights lately, going over 3+ threes in four of his past five, averaging 6.4 attempts per game in that span.
He's picked it up in both games against the Magic, averaging 4.0 threes-made in their two previous meetings.
Betting:
.5u: 3+ threes (-108 FD)
.5u: 4+ threes (+270 FD)
CJ McCollum vs Sacramento (#22)
McCollum has been steady for the Pelicans lately, averaging 6.8 attempts from deep in his past five and going over his 2.5 threes line four times.
The Kings are a generous team to the three-point shot, so we load up McCollum tonight.
Betting:
.5u: 3+ threes (-118 FD)
.5u: 4+ threes (+225 FD)
Fred VanVleet vs Atlanta (#21)
We'll wrap with Fred VanVleet, who has had some serious three-point volume lately on Toronto.
As the above illustrates, FVV has chucked up a monstrous 27 attempts from deep in the last two games.
That's volume I want to follow, and his chart shows that isn't out of the norm for the Raptors guard. VanVleet is averaging 9.2 three-point attempts in his last ten.
Betting:
.5u: 4+ threes (+102 FD)
.5u: 5+ threes (+240 FD)
My unit size for these mini-ladders is a personal choice, and I would urge you to follow a strategy that makes sense for you.
Enjoy the games tonight! Here's hoping for some threes throughout the league.
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