One area of the NHL betting market that I've loved digging into is the data behind power play success and penalty kill shortcomings.
When scanning Monday's board in hockey, the clearest edge favors Edmonton's power play (PP) against Arizona.
I've tinkered with a few metrics behind the scenes, such as expected goals for (against) on the PP/PK, Corsi For(Against) and High Danger opportunities, to rank each team's units.
If you're unfamiliar with these terms, they basically take into account how many shots a team has on the power play (or how many they see against them on the penalty kill), and how many of these shots are high-quality that could lead to scoring.
With that established, I have Edmonton as the top power play unit in the league in their past ten games.
That ranking has certainly been buoyed by their recent success, shown below.
Edmonton: Power Play Goals Last Month
With five power play goals in their past two games, the Oilers are rolling when given opportunities to skate a man-up, and I like that to continue tonight.
I have Arizona's penalty kill ranked 19th in their past ten games, but it's been an issue they've dealt with all season.
Arizona: Power Play Goals Allowed This Season
While the goals allowed has been a bit more up-and-down lately, this remains a weakness of this Coyotes team, and considering how many shots they see against them when killing penalties, I expect Edmonton to net at least one on the power play tonight.
From this chart above, you can see 11 games where Arizona allowed two power play goals. Well, it just so happens we have two games worth of data between these two teams this season, and...
Edmonton Power Play Goals vs Arizona This Year
You have to love seeing this prior success, with Edmonton scoring four PP goals in two games against Arizona this season.
How To Approach This Edge
Sugarhouse is the lone sportsbook that has an open market on betting total power play goals in a game, and it's a market I've been testing for a few weeks now.
If you don't have access to SH, an alternative approach would be to consider betting a PowerPlayPoint for any of Edmonton's top PP line.
It's Connor McDavid who has been the steadiest producer on this line, and the Pine prop projection tool likes his over tonight.
_Oxvfgg6.png)
SH sees the edge we do, as they have Edmonton's odds to score on the power play at -200.
I'm not betting something at -200, so my preferred approach is to bet over 1.5 power play goals in this game at +115.
There's two pieces of logic to support this pick, the first of which is that chart above. Edmonton has cleared this on their own in both games against Arizona and two straight overall.
The second is that the Oilers aren't a great penalty killing team either. I have their PK ranked 23rd in the NHL in the last ten games, fueled by the penalties they continue to draw.
Edmonton: Penalties Last Ten Games
Edmonton's 4.1 penalties per game is the seventh-most in the NHL in the last ten games. Opportunity is king, and Arizona should get it tonight.
Arizona: Power Play Goals Last 7 Games
The above is a completely arbitrary time-frame of seven games, but it's set here to showcase that the Coyotes do have the capability of scoring on the PP, doing so in four of their last seven games.
I feel this approach of betting over 1.5 PP goals can be accomplished in a few ways, so I'm loading it up on Sugarhouse.
Given the 'newness' of this market, I've been putting only a .5 unit wager on these bets, which will continue tonight.
Betting .5u: Over 1.5 power play goals in ARI-EDM (+115 SH)
One area of the NHL betting market that I've loved digging into is the data behind power play success and penalty kill shortcomings.
When scanning Monday's board in hockey, the clearest edge favors Edmonton's power play (PP) against Arizona.
I've tinkered with a few metrics behind the scenes, such as expected goals for (against) on the PP/PK, Corsi For(Against) and High Danger opportunities, to rank each team's units.
If you're unfamiliar with these terms, they basically take into account how many shots a team has on the power play (or how many they see against them on the penalty kill), and how many of these shots are high-quality that could lead to scoring.
With that established, I have Edmonton as the top power play unit in the league in their past ten games.
That ranking has certainly been buoyed by their recent success, shown below.
Edmonton: Power Play Goals Last Month
With five power play goals in their past two games, the Oilers are rolling when given opportunities to skate a man-up, and I like that to continue tonight.
I have Arizona's penalty kill ranked 19th in their past ten games, but it's been an issue they've dealt with all season.
Arizona: Power Play Goals Allowed This Season
While the goals allowed has been a bit more up-and-down lately, this remains a weakness of this Coyotes team, and considering how many shots they see against them when killing penalties, I expect Edmonton to net at least one on the power play tonight.
From this chart above, you can see 11 games where Arizona allowed two power play goals. Well, it just so happens we have two games worth of data between these two teams this season, and...
Edmonton Power Play Goals vs Arizona This Year
You have to love seeing this prior success, with Edmonton scoring four PP goals in two games against Arizona this season.
How To Approach This Edge
Sugarhouse is the lone sportsbook that has an open market on betting total power play goals in a game, and it's a market I've been testing for a few weeks now.
If you don't have access to SH, an alternative approach would be to consider betting a PowerPlayPoint for any of Edmonton's top PP line.
It's Connor McDavid who has been the steadiest producer on this line, and the Pine prop projection tool likes his over tonight.
SH sees the edge we do, as they have Edmonton's odds to score on the power play at -200.
I'm not betting something at -200, so my preferred approach is to bet over 1.5 power play goals in this game at +115.
There's two pieces of logic to support this pick, the first of which is that chart above. Edmonton has cleared this on their own in both games against Arizona and two straight overall.
The second is that the Oilers aren't a great penalty killing team either. I have their PK ranked 23rd in the NHL in the last ten games, fueled by the penalties they continue to draw.
Edmonton: Penalties Last Ten Games
Edmonton's 4.1 penalties per game is the seventh-most in the NHL in the last ten games. Opportunity is king, and Arizona should get it tonight.
Arizona: Power Play Goals Last 7 Games
The above is a completely arbitrary time-frame of seven games, but it's set here to showcase that the Coyotes do have the capability of scoring on the PP, doing so in four of their last seven games.
I feel this approach of betting over 1.5 PP goals can be accomplished in a few ways, so I'm loading it up on Sugarhouse.
Given the 'newness' of this market, I've been putting only a .5 unit wager on these bets, which will continue tonight.
Betting .5u: Over 1.5 power play goals in ARI-EDM (+115 SH)
Make your own custom AI models.
Be Smarter. Use AI.