Frontcourt players are adopting the deep shot but are struggling to keep up with a higher-octane NBA.
In my last post, I explored how teams who shoot more than 50 threes in a single game tend to lose more often than not (if you discount the Morey-D’Antoni Experiment from 2016-2020).
Nonetheless, both starters and bench players have increased their three-point attempt rates by over eight points in the last five seasons.
However, this trend has created a do-or-die situation for frontcourt players in the league, forcing those who have historically given a strong post presence on both offense and defense to live on the arc.
For example, looking at starting power forward, 11% more shots have come from beyond the arc in 2020-2021 than in 2016-17, meaning nearly two out of every five shots are three-point shot attempts. More shocking, centers show the same increase of 11%, with one of five attempts coming from downtown.
Can you imagine if this was happening 25 years ago? Shaq shoots four threes a game, Hakeem Olajuwon chucks step-back threes, and Charles Barkley pulls up from the logo.
To be fair, starting power forwards and centers are hitting threes at a much better rate than they were four years ago, improving 6% and 8%, respectively. Yet, this increase is not contributing to a more efficient true shooting percentage - a metric that heavily accounts for three-point efficiency. Power forwards have been between 55-57%; centers 58-60%.
But, looking now at their average points per game for each group, it is just a single point higher, even though the average total score in an NBA game has increased by 11 points since 2016-17.
This change in coaching philosophy has led to two downsides: tired big men and fewer offensive rebounds.
A team’s mean pace has increased from about 96 to 99 since 2016. Big men are just naturally not able to play at this pace: it takes much more energy to move 280 pounds than it does 200.
As a result, both power forward and center defensive ratings have increased by two to three points in the past three seasons.
Additionally, since offensive schemes are forcing big men to leave the paint, starting post players are averaging two fewer offensive rebounds per game. While seemingly trivial at first glance, this could easily decide who wins or loses a game. Those two combined could take away up to six points a game and give the other team six points since centers and power forwards are too tired to run upcourt to defend a fast break.
The more research I do into the increasing impact of the three-point shot, the more I realize how much is being left on the table because a 24-foot shot averages slightly more points per attempt. While a more efficient shot on paper, does it create a more efficient style of play? Teams can hit a cold streak at the worst time, and a lack of paint presence means it will be even harder to warm up again. A championship path has only broad acknowledgments of consistent defense. The extreme pace is causing more players, not just big men, to be gassed by the end of the season or at more risk for injury.
Don’t get me wrong. I love seeing Curry hit 30-foot shots on any given night, but not every player can cook like that.
In my last post, I explored how teams who shoot more than 50 threes in a single game tend to lose more often than not (if you discount the Morey-D’Antoni Experiment from 2016-2020).
Nonetheless, both starters and bench players have increased their three-point attempt rates by over eight points in the last five seasons.
However, this trend has created a do-or-die situation for frontcourt players in the league, forcing those who have historically given a strong post presence on both offense and defense to live on the arc.
For example, looking at starting power forward, 11% more shots have come from beyond the arc in 2020-2021 than in 2016-17, meaning nearly two out of every five shots are three-point shot attempts. More shocking, centers show the same increase of 11%, with one of five attempts coming from downtown.
Can you imagine if this was happening 25 years ago? Shaq shoots four threes a game, Hakeem Olajuwon chucks step-back threes, and Charles Barkley pulls up from the logo.
To be fair, starting power forwards and centers are hitting threes at a much better rate than they were four years ago, improving 6% and 8%, respectively. Yet, this increase is not contributing to a more efficient true shooting percentage - a metric that heavily accounts for three-point efficiency. Power forwards have been between 55-57%; centers 58-60%.
But, looking now at their average points per game for each group, it is just a single point higher, even though the average total score in an NBA game has increased by 11 points since 2016-17.
This change in coaching philosophy has led to two downsides: tired big men and fewer offensive rebounds.
A team’s mean pace has increased from about 96 to 99 since 2016. Big men are just naturally not able to play at this pace: it takes much more energy to move 280 pounds than it does 200.
As a result, both power forward and center defensive ratings have increased by two to three points in the past three seasons.
Additionally, since offensive schemes are forcing big men to leave the paint, starting post players are averaging two fewer offensive rebounds per game. While seemingly trivial at first glance, this could easily decide who wins or loses a game. Those two combined could take away up to six points a game and give the other team six points since centers and power forwards are too tired to run upcourt to defend a fast break.
The more research I do into the increasing impact of the three-point shot, the more I realize how much is being left on the table because a 24-foot shot averages slightly more points per attempt. While a more efficient shot on paper, does it create a more efficient style of play? Teams can hit a cold streak at the worst time, and a lack of paint presence means it will be even harder to warm up again. A championship path has only broad acknowledgments of consistent defense. The extreme pace is causing more players, not just big men, to be gassed by the end of the season or at more risk for injury.
Don’t get me wrong. I love seeing Curry hit 30-foot shots on any given night, but not every player can cook like that.
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Ha, the image of Shaq taking 4 shots a game beyond the arc is hilarious. I remember when centers couldn’t even make a free throw!