Pick #1: Burkina Faso to win (1.55)

Last round of the AFCON group stages and Burkina Faso (1W1L) faces Ethiopia (2L). Burkina Faso is ranked 60th in the FIFA rankings while Ethiopia is 137th. Although, these rankings might not mean much they show the difference in quality between the two teams.

Burkina Faso has several players playing in top European leagues while Ethiopia has none. During this tournament Burkina played as equal against Cameroon losing to two penalties and beat Cape Verde without much difficulty despite the narrow 1-0 result. On the other hand Ethiopia has been bad losing both their games and getting completely dominated by Cameroon.

Burkina Faso still needs points to get qualified for the next round. A draw might work for them even if Cape Verde wins against Cameroon as they might get through as one of the best third places. However. I believe they’ll try to win today against the easiest team of the group to secure qualification considering their goal difference is mediocre and can get easily thrown out of the competition by other 3rd places with 4 points and better goal difference. So in that case better take matters in your own hands and get a win.

Ethiopia has just won 1 out of their last 7 games and I’m pretty confident they won’t win today. A 0-0 draw also seems unlikely in this match, so if goals are scored I really trust Burkina to score them and get the 3 points they need to be the first team to secure a place in the next round of AFCON.