Jonnu Smith has been a key contributor to the Miami Dolphins' passing attack in recent weeks, and his receiving yards prop of 48.5 for Thursday night's matchup against the Green Bay Packers is an intriguing target. Let’s get into why I think the OVER is such a strong play.
Jonnu Smith has been on a roll, averaging 59.8 receiving yards over his last five games, which is well above the 48.5 yard line. Jonnu has really been showcasing his consistency as a reliable target for Tua Tagovailoa. In the Dolphins' offense, Smith has emerged as a key option, particularly in the short to intermediate passing game. Since Tagovailoa's return in Week 8, Smith leads the Dolphins in target share, even ahead of stars like Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. This heavy involvement makes him a strong candidate to hit the over.
The Packers have struggled to contain players after the catch, giving up the 12th most yards after the catch per game. This plays directly into Smith’s strengths, as 65% of his receiving yards since Week 8 have come after the catch. Additionally, the Packers run a lot of zone coverage, which opens up opportunities for tight ends to find soft spots in the zone defense. Smith has thrived in these situations, making him a prime candidate to exploit Green Bay’s defensive scheme.
With freezing temperatures expected at Lambeau Field, the Dolphins are likely to lean on a short passing game to protect Tua and play to his strengths. Smith’s low average depth of target (ADOT) makes him an ideal option in these conditions, as he can rack up yards on quick, high percentage throws. The Dolphins are slight underdogs in this matchup, which could lead to a pass heavy game script if they fall behind. This would further increase Smith’s opportunities to exceed his receiving yards line.
Jonnu Smith’s recent form, heavy involvement in the Dolphins’ passing game, and the matchup dynamics against Green Bay make the over 48.5 receiving yards a very strong play. His ability to generate yards after the catch and the projected game script further bolster his chances of surpassing this mark. Don’t even overthink it. Let’s just lock this up and secure that DUB!
Pick: Jonnu Smith OVER 48.5 Receiving Yds.
JP👊🏾🤑
Jonnu Smith has been a key contributor to the Miami Dolphins' passing attack in recent weeks, and his receiving yards prop of 48.5 for Thursday night's matchup against the Green Bay Packers is an intriguing target. Let’s get into why I think the OVER is such a strong play.
Jonnu Smith has been on a roll, averaging 59.8 receiving yards over his last five games, which is well above the 48.5 yard line. Jonnu has really been showcasing his consistency as a reliable target for Tua Tagovailoa. In the Dolphins' offense, Smith has emerged as a key option, particularly in the short to intermediate passing game. Since Tagovailoa's return in Week 8, Smith leads the Dolphins in target share, even ahead of stars like Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. This heavy involvement makes him a strong candidate to hit the over.
The Packers have struggled to contain players after the catch, giving up the 12th most yards after the catch per game. This plays directly into Smith’s strengths, as 65% of his receiving yards since Week 8 have come after the catch. Additionally, the Packers run a lot of zone coverage, which opens up opportunities for tight ends to find soft spots in the zone defense. Smith has thrived in these situations, making him a prime candidate to exploit Green Bay’s defensive scheme.
With freezing temperatures expected at Lambeau Field, the Dolphins are likely to lean on a short passing game to protect Tua and play to his strengths. Smith’s low average depth of target (ADOT) makes him an ideal option in these conditions, as he can rack up yards on quick, high percentage throws. The Dolphins are slight underdogs in this matchup, which could lead to a pass heavy game script if they fall behind. This would further increase Smith’s opportunities to exceed his receiving yards line.
Jonnu Smith’s recent form, heavy involvement in the Dolphins’ passing game, and the matchup dynamics against Green Bay make the over 48.5 receiving yards a very strong play. His ability to generate yards after the catch and the projected game script further bolster his chances of surpassing this mark. Don’t even overthink it. Let’s just lock this up and secure that DUB!
Pick: Jonnu Smith OVER 48.5 Receiving Yds.
JP👊🏾🤑
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