Lock It In: New York Knicks vs. Brooklyn Nets
Pick: Kevin Durant Under 7.5 Rebounds (-110)
Tonight's the big Knicks vs. Nets game and with my Knicks being big dogs, I spent some time finding a nice prop that lets me root against the Nets tonight. Like the Robot, I'm liking the under for Kevin Durant's rebounds.
Durant has been trending down in rebounds this season, and I don't think the books have caught up.
As you can see in the above chart, although Durant was trending around 10 rebounds early in the season, he has been getting fewer and fewer as the season progressed and is now trending around 6 rebounds per game. This is right in line with what the Robot thinks.
He has only gotten over 7.5 rebounds in 3 of his last 10 games.
Even if we were to ignore the Robot's projection based on the Knicks being the opponent tonight, and project KD to get his normalized average of about 6.5 rebounds per game, at a standard deviation of 3.35, we get about a 62% chance of hitting the under here. With the moneyline at -110 that gets us implied odds of 52.38% which is a nice buffer to like the under tonight.
Wish me luck!
Pick: Kevin Durant Under 7.5 Rebounds (-110)
Tonight's the big Knicks vs. Nets game and with my Knicks being big dogs, I spent some time finding a nice prop that lets me root against the Nets tonight. Like the Robot, I'm liking the under for Kevin Durant's rebounds.
Durant has been trending down in rebounds this season, and I don't think the books have caught up.
As you can see in the above chart, although Durant was trending around 10 rebounds early in the season, he has been getting fewer and fewer as the season progressed and is now trending around 6 rebounds per game. This is right in line with what the Robot thinks.
He has only gotten over 7.5 rebounds in 3 of his last 10 games.
Even if we were to ignore the Robot's projection based on the Knicks being the opponent tonight, and project KD to get his normalized average of about 6.5 rebounds per game, at a standard deviation of 3.35, we get about a 62% chance of hitting the under here. With the moneyline at -110 that gets us implied odds of 52.38% which is a nice buffer to like the under tonight.
Wish me luck!
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