Lock It In: Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Dallas Mavericks
Pick: Jarrett Allen Points Over 13.5 (-125)
If you're not on the Pine Discord, you need to be (link here: https://discord.com/invite/87YRv2J2jj). This morning, @statsman posted all of The Robot's picks for tonight's NBA & NFL games. Jarrett Allen's points prop really stuck out at me. Here's what The Robot thinks:
That's right, Allen has been averaging over 18 points a game this month! And he's gotten over 13.5 points in 7 of his last 10 games.
@joshreid noted on the Discord that the books were potentially bringing his numbers down due to the slow pace of both the Calves and Mavericks. Both are on the bottom end of the league in terms of pace and averaging about 96 per game.
So I took a look at how Allen does when the pace is around 96, and he's averaging about 15.3 points per game.
So even assuming The Robot is wrong with it's projection of 22.5 points, and we bring down the projection to how Allen does at a 96 pace, here's what we get:
Projection: 15.3
Standard Deviation (November): 5.3
That gets us a 63.3% chance of hitting the over. At -125, the implied odds are 55.56%. Even taking the conservative approach, I think there is good value in the over tonight.
Wish me luck!
Pick: Jarrett Allen Points Over 13.5 (-125)
If you're not on the Pine Discord, you need to be (link here: https://discord.com/invite/87YRv2J2jj). This morning, @statsman posted all of The Robot's picks for tonight's NBA & NFL games. Jarrett Allen's points prop really stuck out at me. Here's what The Robot thinks:
That's right, Allen has been averaging over 18 points a game this month! And he's gotten over 13.5 points in 7 of his last 10 games.
@joshreid noted on the Discord that the books were potentially bringing his numbers down due to the slow pace of both the Calves and Mavericks. Both are on the bottom end of the league in terms of pace and averaging about 96 per game.
So I took a look at how Allen does when the pace is around 96, and he's averaging about 15.3 points per game.
So even assuming The Robot is wrong with it's projection of 22.5 points, and we bring down the projection to how Allen does at a 96 pace, here's what we get:
Projection: 15.3
Standard Deviation (November): 5.3
That gets us a 63.3% chance of hitting the over. At -125, the implied odds are 55.56%. Even taking the conservative approach, I think there is good value in the over tonight.
Wish me luck!
Win your way.
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