- Justice Hill Over 2.5 Rec (+115 DK)
- Ravens are missing one of their top offensive lineman tonight and this could lead to more quick throws and checkdowns. On top of all of this, the Bills are playing the highest rate of Cover-2 which historically has led top more running back targets and Hill has had a 45% route participation percentage. Looking at the Bills previous matchups, James connor had 3 receptions, De’Vone Achane had 7 receptions, and Travis Etienne had 4 receptions. Hill has had 2, 2, and 6 receptions this season and with the Bills primarily playing Cover-2 I believe this is the perfect spot to get him going as he has a 28% TPRR versus two high looks (Bills play two high at 3rd highest rate in league) specifically.
- Dalton Kincaid Over 38.5 Rec Yds (-110 FD)
- We just simply cannot ignore what the tight ends have done against the Ravens this season with Brock Bowers getting 90+ yards along with Ferguson last week with 90+ as well. With the Ravens, you want to attack the middle of the field and with Kincaid running a lot of his routes across the middle, this is the perfect spot for him. Ravens defense is focused on running a two high look (MOFO), and against that look, Kincaid has the highest TPRR on the team (min 11 routes run) at 18% and the highest air yard share as well at 22%, and these numbers include a week 1 performance where he was tripled and even quadruple teamed. When you filter for weeks 2 and 3 only when he wasn’t getting all of the defensive attention, he has a 27% air yard share (best) and 27% TPRR (best), all with min 11 routes run.
- Rashee Rice Over 6.5 Rec (+102 FD)
- This line makes zero sense. Quite literally the best player this season on pass attempts without pressure to the QB with a 0.441 TPRR per FTN LAC currently ranks LAST in Pressure% on NFLPro, 7th worst on FTN, 10th worst on NFLPro. In 6 of his last 7 regular season games against teams with below average pressure%, he is over this line with 8+ in 5 of them As far as coverages go, Chargers run the 4th most Zone Coverage and are Top 5 in C2 and C6 Rate Rashee vs Zone: 0.35 TPRR Rashee vs C2/C6: 0.33 TPRR A lot of systems favor Chargers spread here and divisional games always become a Grind so despite thinking Chiefs handle business, I don't think the game gets out of hand enough for the Chiefs not to throw it at least 30 times here, and that is really all we need considering he is over in 7 of his last 9 where Mahomes throws it 30+ times.
George Pickens Over 53.5 Rec Yds (-113 FD)
Pickens has had some tough matchups to start the season with shadow coverage against Patrick Surtain & AJ Terrell, He has gone over this line in 2 of 3 games to start the season, all while averaging 57 yards per game. The Colts play a ridiculous amount of Cover-3 and single high (MOFC). 116 of his 171 total yards this season have come against MOFC (68%). This also comes with a 63% team air yard share along with 2.90 YPRR. He even has a 51% first read share against single high (15 first read targets on 40 routes!). When looking at the Colts defensive rankings when a quarterback targets their first read: - YPRR: 9th worst - TPRR: 7th worst - Total Air Yards: 14th worst Stats may not show it but he has played way better than his numbers indicate and this can be the blow up game to really put him in the spotlight with this matchup.
Marvin Harrison Jr Over 72.5 Rec Yds (-114 FD)
Keeping this one simple:
o Commanders have gotten killed vs WR1’s
o Commanders run top 5 rate of 2 high (MOFO)
o MHJ Vs two high: 45% air yard share, 20% TPRR, 1.41 YPRR, 28% First read share (first on team)
o No McBride who has highest TPRR and 2nd highest air yard share vs 2 high
George Pickens Over 53.5 Rec Yds (-113 FD)
Pickens has had some tough matchups to start the season with shadow coverage against Patrick Surtain & AJ Terrell, He has gone over this line in 2 of 3 games to start the season, all while averaging 57 yards per game. The Colts play a ridiculous amount of Cover-3 and single high (MOFC). 116 of his 171 total yards this season have come against MOFC (68%). This also comes with a 63% team air yard share along with 2.90 YPRR. He even has a 51% first read share against single high (15 first read targets on 40 routes!). When looking at the Colts defensive rankings when a quarterback targets their first read: - YPRR: 9th worst - TPRR: 7th worst - Total Air Yards: 14th worst Stats may not show it but he has played way better than his numbers indicate and this can be the blow up game to really put him in the spotlight with this matchup.
Marvin Harrison Jr Over 72.5 Rec Yds (-114 FD)
Keeping this one simple:
o Commanders have gotten killed vs WR1’s
o Commanders run top 5 rate of 2 high (MOFO)
o MHJ Vs two high: 45% air yard share, 20% TPRR, 1.41 YPRR, 28% First read share (first on team)
o No McBride who has highest TPRR and 2nd highest air yard share vs 2 high
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