Devin Singletary Over 80.5 Rush+Rec Yds (-114 FD)
Singletary continues to get overlooked as a player just because he is not on a good team, yet he has continuously produced good numbers through the first few weeks of the season. He also happens to be facing one of the worst run defenses in the league in the Dallas Cowboys tonight where they are allowing the MOST yards after contact at 4.02, the MOST yards per carry between the tackle at 6.7 (Giants man/gap run scheme), LAST in run DVOA, LOWEST stuff percentage, and allowing the highest EPA/Rush, all while having the 4th highest stacked box percentage (8+ defenders in the box). Singletary has earned his rushing yards this season, getting 169 of his 197 total rushing yards (86%) after contact which comes out to 4.00 yards per attempt after contact, which is 5th best this season out of 51 qualified players (to qualify you need to average at least 6.25 attempts per game). There is no better spot than to control this game on the ground to keep the clock moving and limit the Dallas offensive time of possession. Looking at the passing side of the things, the Cowboys play the 4th most zone in the league and looking at the TPRR leaders for the Giants versus zone, we see that Singletary is tied for first at 29% TPRR. This Cowboys defense has been susceptible to receptions out of the backfield where they are allowing the MOST yards this season. They need Singletary to take over on the ground tonight and I believe he pulls it off.
Malik Nabers Over 6.5 Rec (+112 FD)
Nabers has lit the world on fire through the first three weeks of the season and I think tonight is no different. Many may say oh well what about Trevon Diggs. With Mike Zimmer being the defensive coordinator, this has led to a ton of zone coverage. This has also led to the Dallas corners rarely pressing and staying on one side of the field. Nabers typically moves around the field a lot, so worry about Diggs shouldn’t be much of a concern here. On the opposite side of Diggs, Caelen Carson who has been targeted quite often compared to the rest of the secondary, and yet he is OUT tonight, leading to what should be more vulnerability in the secondary. Everyone talks about how through the first few weeks how Nabers production comes primarily from Man Coverage, and that is true, but still, about 44% of his total yardage has come from against zone along with a 29% TPRR too. Where I have seen the weaknesses in this defense as far as receivers are concerned is horizontal routes (allows 5th most yards vs Horizontal throws), whether it is attacking the sidelines or across the middle. The Cowboys like to run Cover-3 and Cover-4 which can be susceptible to crossers, which opponents have feasted on. Nabers leads the team in TPRR on Horizontal throws at 34%. Daniel Jones against this Dallas pass rush, you want to get the ball out quickly. Again, this secondary rarely presses and sits back about 8 yards or so. Quick slants, flats, crossers, short out routes and obviously screens should feast here. Against zone, that is about 28% of Nabers routes this season. the other receiver we can’t ignore here is Wan’Dale Robinson who should also be a player to target. Against zone, that is about 36% of his routes. Why Nabers over Robinson? Well, this offense goes through Nabers, and it has worked much better than Week 1 when it mainly went through Robinson who mainly just feasted on short hitch routes the Vikings defense allowed with their two high defensive scheme, whether it was Cover-2 or Cover-4. He leads the league in targets at 37 (7, 18, 12 target games), all while catching 23 of them (5, 10, 8 reception games). Let this man continue to cook.
Devin Singletary Over 80.5 Rush+Rec Yds (-114 FD)
Singletary continues to get overlooked as a player just because he is not on a good team, yet he has continuously produced good numbers through the first few weeks of the season. He also happens to be facing one of the worst run defenses in the league in the Dallas Cowboys tonight where they are allowing the MOST yards after contact at 4.02, the MOST yards per carry between the tackle at 6.7 (Giants man/gap run scheme), LAST in run DVOA, LOWEST stuff percentage, and allowing the highest EPA/Rush, all while having the 4th highest stacked box percentage (8+ defenders in the box). Singletary has earned his rushing yards this season, getting 169 of his 197 total rushing yards (86%) after contact which comes out to 4.00 yards per attempt after contact, which is 5th best this season out of 51 qualified players (to qualify you need to average at least 6.25 attempts per game). There is no better spot than to control this game on the ground to keep the clock moving and limit the Dallas offensive time of possession. Looking at the passing side of the things, the Cowboys play the 4th most zone in the league and looking at the TPRR leaders for the Giants versus zone, we see that Singletary is tied for first at 29% TPRR. This Cowboys defense has been susceptible to receptions out of the backfield where they are allowing the MOST yards this season. They need Singletary to take over on the ground tonight and I believe he pulls it off.
Malik Nabers Over 6.5 Rec (+112 FD)
Nabers has lit the world on fire through the first three weeks of the season and I think tonight is no different. Many may say oh well what about Trevon Diggs. With Mike Zimmer being the defensive coordinator, this has led to a ton of zone coverage. This has also led to the Dallas corners rarely pressing and staying on one side of the field. Nabers typically moves around the field a lot, so worry about Diggs shouldn’t be much of a concern here. On the opposite side of Diggs, Caelen Carson who has been targeted quite often compared to the rest of the secondary, and yet he is OUT tonight, leading to what should be more vulnerability in the secondary. Everyone talks about how through the first few weeks how Nabers production comes primarily from Man Coverage, and that is true, but still, about 44% of his total yardage has come from against zone along with a 29% TPRR too. Where I have seen the weaknesses in this defense as far as receivers are concerned is horizontal routes (allows 5th most yards vs Horizontal throws), whether it is attacking the sidelines or across the middle. The Cowboys like to run Cover-3 and Cover-4 which can be susceptible to crossers, which opponents have feasted on. Nabers leads the team in TPRR on Horizontal throws at 34%. Daniel Jones against this Dallas pass rush, you want to get the ball out quickly. Again, this secondary rarely presses and sits back about 8 yards or so. Quick slants, flats, crossers, short out routes and obviously screens should feast here. Against zone, that is about 28% of Nabers routes this season. the other receiver we can’t ignore here is Wan’Dale Robinson who should also be a player to target. Against zone, that is about 36% of his routes. Why Nabers over Robinson? Well, this offense goes through Nabers, and it has worked much better than Week 1 when it mainly went through Robinson who mainly just feasted on short hitch routes the Vikings defense allowed with their two high defensive scheme, whether it was Cover-2 or Cover-4. He leads the league in targets at 37 (7, 18, 12 target games), all while catching 23 of them (5, 10, 8 reception games). Let this man continue to cook.
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