Pick 4: Villanova+4.5 (-110)
A top 5 matchup this early in the season with an experienced Villanova squad taking on UCLA coming off a magical tournament run in 2021. I think the hype for UCLA is a little excessive.
Let's travel back to just before the NCAA Tournament to show how improbable the UCLA run was. UCLA ended the regular season on a three game losing streak and lost to Oregon State in the first round of the Pac 12 tournament. They were 17-9 and sitting at #45 in Ken Pom rankings. Nothing about their resume screamed they were a very deserving team for a tourney bid.
They were gifted a tourney bid by the selection committee as one of the last four teams in. Then they beat Michigan State in OT (at one point the win probablity was 9% for UCLA). Then went on a run where every nearly every team they played against underperformed in their shooting numbers vs regular season averages. UCLA shot over 40% from three throughout the tournament when they were 35-36% on regular season while their opponents shot 26% from three where the regular season rates for those teams was 32.1% for Michigan State and between 35.2 and 38.1 for the other 5 teams.
All this to say, that UCLA easily could have not made the tournament or lost to Michigan State/Alabama/Michigan and suddenly it's doubtful if they are even a top 25 team going into the season.
It will be very interesting to see if this UCLA teams plays more like the regular season team last year or the team from it's magical tournament run. To me, an improbable 6 game stretch doesn't just overshadow all the inconsistency from the previous 26 games.
I'll take the points for the experienced team that's been one of the most consistent and dominant teams in recent college basketball history.
Villanova+4.5 (-110). BOL!
Pick 4: Villanova+4.5 (-110)
A top 5 matchup this early in the season with an experienced Villanova squad taking on UCLA coming off a magical tournament run in 2021. I think the hype for UCLA is a little excessive.
Let's travel back to just before the NCAA Tournament to show how improbable the UCLA run was. UCLA ended the regular season on a three game losing streak and lost to Oregon State in the first round of the Pac 12 tournament. They were 17-9 and sitting at #45 in Ken Pom rankings. Nothing about their resume screamed they were a very deserving team for a tourney bid.
They were gifted a tourney bid by the selection committee as one of the last four teams in. Then they beat Michigan State in OT (at one point the win probablity was 9% for UCLA). Then went on a run where every nearly every team they played against underperformed in their shooting numbers vs regular season averages. UCLA shot over 40% from three throughout the tournament when they were 35-36% on regular season while their opponents shot 26% from three where the regular season rates for those teams was 32.1% for Michigan State and between 35.2 and 38.1 for the other 5 teams.
All this to say, that UCLA easily could have not made the tournament or lost to Michigan State/Alabama/Michigan and suddenly it's doubtful if they are even a top 25 team going into the season.
It will be very interesting to see if this UCLA teams plays more like the regular season team last year or the team from it's magical tournament run. To me, an improbable 6 game stretch doesn't just overshadow all the inconsistency from the previous 26 games.
I'll take the points for the experienced team that's been one of the most consistent and dominant teams in recent college basketball history.
Villanova+4.5 (-110). BOL!
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