🏀 Lock It In: 76'ers v. Hawks
There's pretty good value if you take the 76'ers ML tonight, especially against the Hawks and I'm going to explain why.
Philly squares off against the Hawks tonight. I like to start with finding value in game match-ups and I do that using my Predict NBA model. I first compare what my Predict model is telling me about who is favored the win a game and then I look at what the sportsbooks are offering for that bet. If my model shows a greater implied percentage than the sportsbook, then I've found some player edge. For tonight, I've identified free odds by taking Philly. Have a look below at the implied odds and predictions based on my Predict model. The 76'ers ML has a 5% player edge and my model is predicting they'll win 66% of the time.
But I never just rely on my Predict model and either should you. Once I've found what I think is some good value, I like to use the power of Explore to test my assumption about who will win. I think there are a few keys stats one can look to when evaluating a team or match-up. I like to look at 3-point percentage, field goal percentage, and offensive rebounds.
Philly has a towering lead in three point percentage compared to Atlanta: 41% versus 33%, respectively. You can see the difference even more when you turn-off the other data points by clicking on the color in the legend below the graph (try it now)! Philly also leads Atlanta in field goal percentages, although not as much as threes. Now, Atlanta has made more offensive rebounds compared to Philly this season: 12 versus 8.4 on average. But I don't think that hurts Philly too much given they have a nearly 10% lead over the Hawks when it comes to scoring three pointers.
Finally, I like to take a look at the team score and the opponent score for this season. So far, Philly has averaged 110 points per game and given up 105.6 points on average. Atlanta, on the other hand, averages 108.6 and has given up 102.6. It should be an interesting match-up but I really like Philly tonight given how well they score compared to Atlanta and because there's some great value baked into the Philly ML.
There's pretty good value if you take the 76'ers ML tonight, especially against the Hawks and I'm going to explain why.
I like to start with finding value in game match-ups and I do that using my Predict NBA model. I first compare what my Predict model is telling me about who is favored the win a game and then I look at what the sportsbooks are offering for that bet. If my model shows a greater implied percentage than the sportsbook, then I've found some player edge. For tonight, I've identified free odds by taking Philly. Have a look below at the implied odds and predictions based on my Predict model. The 76'ers ML has a 5% player edge and my model is predicting they'll win 66% of the time.
But I never just rely on my Predict model and either should you. Once I've found what I think is some good value, I like to use the power of Explore to test my assumption about who will win. I think there are a few keys stats one can look to when evaluating a team or match-up. I like to look at 3-point percentage, field goal percentage, and offensive rebounds.
Philly has a towering lead in three point percentage compared to Atlanta: 41% versus 33%, respectively. You can see the difference even more when you turn-off the other data points by clicking on the color in the legend below the graph (try it now)! Philly also leads Atlanta in field goal percentages, although not as much as threes. Now, Atlanta has made more offensive rebounds compared to Philly this season: 12 versus 8.4 on average. But I don't think that hurts Philly too much given they have a nearly 10% lead over the Hawks when it comes to scoring three pointers.
Finally, I like to take a look at the team score and the opponent score for this season. So far, Philly has averaged 110 points per game and given up 105.6 points on average. Atlanta, on the other hand, averages 108.6 and has given up 102.6. It should be an interesting match-up but I really like Philly tonight given how well they score compared to Atlanta and because there's some great value baked into the Philly ML.
No need to sift through the clutter.
Just use the prop cheatsheet.