Lock It In: Washington v. Atlanta
Since I didn't make a pick yesterday, I'm making my fourth pick for Atlanta over the Wizards.
Again, I like to stick to the fundamentals, sometimes over what my model is telling me.
Atlanta leads the Wizards in three points and rebounds while the Wizards leads Atlanta this season in field goal percentage. But the difference is too big (only about 0.6%) while Atlanta's three point percentage lead is quite substantial: 34% versus 31.8% from the Wizards.
My Predict model has Washington winning, but only 52% of the time. That makes me feel comfortable attributing that small 2% difference to natural variance in the data, which means I essentially consider the game a coin toss. Vegas doesn't agree, however. Taking Atlanta gets you -150. Doing your homework, especially with Explore, is important. So I am going to go against my Predict model, and lock it in for the Hawks.
Since I didn't make a pick yesterday, I'm making my fourth pick for Atlanta over the Wizards.
Again, I like to stick to the fundamentals, sometimes over what my model is telling me.
Atlanta leads the Wizards in three points and rebounds while the Wizards leads Atlanta this season in field goal percentage. But the difference is too big (only about 0.6%) while Atlanta's three point percentage lead is quite substantial: 34% versus 31.8% from the Wizards.
My Predict model has Washington winning, but only 52% of the time. That makes me feel comfortable attributing that small 2% difference to natural variance in the data, which means I essentially consider the game a coin toss. Vegas doesn't agree, however. Taking Atlanta gets you -150. Doing your homework, especially with Explore, is important. So I am going to go against my Predict model, and lock it in for the Hawks.
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