Lock It In: Lakers v. Spurs
The Lakers are in San Antonio tonight for what should be an exciting (and interesting game). My Predict NBA Winner model has the Lakers winning 69% of the time and based on my review of some key stats in Explore, I'm locking in the Lakers ML @ -145 tonight.
I don't ever just rely on my Predict model and you shouldn't either. Instead, Predict will do a lot of the heavy lifting for you and can help point you in the right direction. This means you should do your homework to validate what your Predict model is telling you, and that's where the power of Explore comes in. I've used Explore to find the stats that matter the most when building my Predict model, and below are some of them.
Teams that score three pointers usually win games. The Lakers had a slight lead against San Antonio's three point percentage with 35.2% versus 34.5% (based on last season's data). The Lakers also had a 0.5% edge for field goal percentage. Both teams are nearly dead even when it comes to defensive rebounds.
I also like to take a look at average total points for last season and compare that to total opponent points -- i.e., how many points each team gives up, on average. Last season the Lakers scored 108 points on average and the Spurs 110 but the Spurs gave up 112.4 while the Lakers only gave up 106. The Spurs ended up giving away more points last season than they scored. These are just averages but they can help us get a sense of what we might expect going into tonight's game given that this season is so new. I think we'll see a charged-up Lakers team try to shut down the Spurs on their home court and hopefully see them pull out a victory tonight.
The Lakers are in San Antonio tonight for what should be an exciting (and interesting game). My Predict NBA Winner model has the Lakers winning 69% of the time and based on my review of some key stats in Explore, I'm locking in the Lakers ML @ -145 tonight.
I don't ever just rely on my Predict model and you shouldn't either. Instead, Predict will do a lot of the heavy lifting for you and can help point you in the right direction. This means you should do your homework to validate what your Predict model is telling you, and that's where the power of Explore comes in. I've used Explore to find the stats that matter the most when building my Predict model, and below are some of them.
Teams that score three pointers usually win games. The Lakers had a slight lead against San Antonio's three point percentage with 35.2% versus 34.5% (based on last season's data). The Lakers also had a 0.5% edge for field goal percentage. Both teams are nearly dead even when it comes to defensive rebounds.
I also like to take a look at average total points for last season and compare that to total opponent points -- i.e., how many points each team gives up, on average. Last season the Lakers scored 108 points on average and the Spurs 110 but the Spurs gave up 112.4 while the Lakers only gave up 106. The Spurs ended up giving away more points last season than they scored. These are just averages but they can help us get a sense of what we might expect going into tonight's game given that this season is so new. I think we'll see a charged-up Lakers team try to shut down the Spurs on their home court and hopefully see them pull out a victory tonight.
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