For my first pick this season I am taking Jameis Winston over 1.5 passing TDs at +120.  

The Seahawks are bad defensively, they are currently giving up over 24 points her page and 10 passing TDs through 6 games. They are also getting by more on name recognition than actual talent this year.  They are usually unbeatable at home but have started out 0-2 so far at home this year and they are on a 2 game losing streak.  

The Seahawks will start Geno Smith instead of the injured Russel Wilson so there is some fear that this is a run the ball fast game that doesn't see many points.  However Winston is likes to throw and I think Pete Carroll will force Winston to put the ball in the air to score and he should be able to connect for at least two against a bad Seahawks secondary. 

Winston has thrown for 2+ touchdowns in half his games and 2 out of his last thre.  He has two games of 4+ TDs so he is actually averaging more than 2 per game on the year.  Peyton is trusting him more and more and if you remove his one terrible game at Carolina this year he has had a QB rating over 100 in each game and averaged 3 TD passes on the year.  

Obviously you can't remove bad performances and then look at the average but the point is Winston has played well in most games this year.  I don't see the Seattle defense shutting him down tonight and Ill go with Winston over 1.5 TD passes +120 to start this season.