Welcome back gang. Free play of the day is going to be - Yankees/Angels over 6.5 + Hunter Brown 5 K's -126.
First let's start with Hunter Brown. Scary spot here but Brown has been pretty unlucky so far in 2024. On the surface the numbers look rough, 7.06 ERA/ 1-5 Record, 1.78 WHIP, but underlying numbers show he should be doing much better. Expected ERA 4.40, 36% hard hit rate and XBA at .260 show us he should be doing a bit better than he has been. Brown has a 22% strikeout rate on the season and has plenty of swing and miss stuff in his bag. He has 5 pitches he uses over 10% and every one of them gets at least 20% swing and strike, with 4 of those over 25%. Mariners strikeout a ton and are towards the top of the league in strikeouts versus RHP. Huge park upgrade here for Brown as well heading to Seattle and getting one of the best pitchers parks in baseball.
Yankees and Angels game is by far my favorite game for offense outside of Coors Field. Yankees face off against Griffin Canning. Canning hasn't been terrible this year, but tough spot against a Yankees team that is rolling. Lefties have crushed Canning, .307/374/.561 numbers to southpaws this year. I expect Soto, RIzzo, Verdugo and all the lefties in this lineup to give me a tough time. Even against righties, he is really not missing bats. Both lefties and righties strikeout against Canning under 18% of the time, and with Judge and Stanton in this lineup as well, going to be a tough task tonight. Cortes has been awful away from Yankee Stadium this year and the Angels have smoked lefties. Angels have a .277 Batting average versus lefties this season, number one in baseball, and have been much better as of late. Cortes has a 1.12 ERA at home so far this season, but has a 6.75 ERA on the road and has been killed by the long ball and walks. 9% walk rate away from home this year, a 1.62 WHIP and 1.78 home runs per nine, are significantly worse than his innings at home. Expecting fireworks in this one. Let's cash this parlay.
Welcome back gang. Free play of the day is going to be - Yankees/Angels over 6.5 + Hunter Brown 5 K's -126.
First let's start with Hunter Brown. Scary spot here but Brown has been pretty unlucky so far in 2024. On the surface the numbers look rough, 7.06 ERA/ 1-5 Record, 1.78 WHIP, but underlying numbers show he should be doing much better. Expected ERA 4.40, 36% hard hit rate and XBA at .260 show us he should be doing a bit better than he has been. Brown has a 22% strikeout rate on the season and has plenty of swing and miss stuff in his bag. He has 5 pitches he uses over 10% and every one of them gets at least 20% swing and strike, with 4 of those over 25%. Mariners strikeout a ton and are towards the top of the league in strikeouts versus RHP. Huge park upgrade here for Brown as well heading to Seattle and getting one of the best pitchers parks in baseball.
Yankees and Angels game is by far my favorite game for offense outside of Coors Field. Yankees face off against Griffin Canning. Canning hasn't been terrible this year, but tough spot against a Yankees team that is rolling. Lefties have crushed Canning, .307/374/.561 numbers to southpaws this year. I expect Soto, RIzzo, Verdugo and all the lefties in this lineup to give me a tough time. Even against righties, he is really not missing bats. Both lefties and righties strikeout against Canning under 18% of the time, and with Judge and Stanton in this lineup as well, going to be a tough task tonight. Cortes has been awful away from Yankee Stadium this year and the Angels have smoked lefties. Angels have a .277 Batting average versus lefties this season, number one in baseball, and have been much better as of late. Cortes has a 1.12 ERA at home so far this season, but has a 6.75 ERA on the road and has been killed by the long ball and walks. 9% walk rate away from home this year, a 1.62 WHIP and 1.78 home runs per nine, are significantly worse than his innings at home. Expecting fireworks in this one. Let's cash this parlay.
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