Luka Doncic Under 8.5 Ast (+130 DK)
Doncic potential assists have gone down in each game (20, 15, 10) while Irving’s have gone up (7, 20, 16). The Thunder have took a similar approach of trying to eliminate Luka scoring ability in focusing on the pick & roll defense. The Thunder have put a ton of pressure on the pick & roll trying to run both Luka and Kyrie off the three-point line but also forcing them into the help in the paint. The Thunder seem to be okay with leaving corner shooters open, which they’ve done all season. the defender in the corner which is typically a guy like Wiggins or Giddey are also ready for the roll man on the tag. That tag is key to Luka’s assists as most of his assists have come at the rim. These are off the roll man and lobs. 45% of his assists this postseason have come at the rim. Yes, a lot of assists this postseason have gone to PJ Washington but the past two games they have been drawing up plays for him to create off the dribble to attack Giddey since that is his primary defender. Even with Washington having some big games, Luka has still seen low potential assists. In the past two games, a lot of offense has been run through Kyrie. Luka being banged up they want to play him tough and try and make him a scorer in the paint area with floaters and pullup midrange shots. Look for a lot more one on one defense against Luka as they have the past two games.
Chet Holmgren Under 1.5 3PM (-108 FD)
I took the under on his points last game, but we are pivoting to his threes tonight to take the under on. In Game 1 they let him pick and pop a lot but since then they have keyed in on it and let Shai go more one on one with switches rather than straight doubles off the pick & roll. They threw a lot of different bodies at him and when he was utilized in the pick & roll, he rolled way more often. Also, when they saw him in transition moments, they made sure to have a body ready to throw at him, hence he only had two three-point attempts in Game 3. The Thunder have also run a lot of pick & rolls with wing players trying to force more switches because as I’ve said all series, there is going to be a lot of matchup hunting on both sides. But limited pick and pop means fewer three-point usage from Chet and I look for Dallas to have a similar game plan yet again.
Luka Doncic Under 8.5 Ast (+130 DK)
Doncic potential assists have gone down in each game (20, 15, 10) while Irving’s have gone up (7, 20, 16). The Thunder have took a similar approach of trying to eliminate Luka scoring ability in focusing on the pick & roll defense. The Thunder have put a ton of pressure on the pick & roll trying to run both Luka and Kyrie off the three-point line but also forcing them into the help in the paint. The Thunder seem to be okay with leaving corner shooters open, which they’ve done all season. the defender in the corner which is typically a guy like Wiggins or Giddey are also ready for the roll man on the tag. That tag is key to Luka’s assists as most of his assists have come at the rim. These are off the roll man and lobs. 45% of his assists this postseason have come at the rim. Yes, a lot of assists this postseason have gone to PJ Washington but the past two games they have been drawing up plays for him to create off the dribble to attack Giddey since that is his primary defender. Even with Washington having some big games, Luka has still seen low potential assists. In the past two games, a lot of offense has been run through Kyrie. Luka being banged up they want to play him tough and try and make him a scorer in the paint area with floaters and pullup midrange shots. Look for a lot more one on one defense against Luka as they have the past two games.
Chet Holmgren Under 1.5 3PM (-108 FD)
I took the under on his points last game, but we are pivoting to his threes tonight to take the under on. In Game 1 they let him pick and pop a lot but since then they have keyed in on it and let Shai go more one on one with switches rather than straight doubles off the pick & roll. They threw a lot of different bodies at him and when he was utilized in the pick & roll, he rolled way more often. Also, when they saw him in transition moments, they made sure to have a body ready to throw at him, hence he only had two three-point attempts in Game 3. The Thunder have also run a lot of pick & rolls with wing players trying to force more switches because as I’ve said all series, there is going to be a lot of matchup hunting on both sides. But limited pick and pop means fewer three-point usage from Chet and I look for Dallas to have a similar game plan yet again.
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