For my first pick in a few seasons I'm taking the Dodgers to cover the 1.5 run spread at home against the Diamondbacks tonight. It's no secret that the Dodgers are one of the best teams in baseball while the D-backs are one of the worst. 

The stat I decided to look at tonight was the Dodgers' opponent's runs scored in each of their last 11 games, or since the start of September. The average number of runs scored in each game is 2.45, which is a relatively low total. More importantly however, two of the past three games, the Dodgers were able to hold their opponent to no runs. 

This pick seems fairly safe considering the skill set of both teams and the Dodgers ability to hold their opponents to low run totals recently. Dodgers -1.5 at -140 is my first pick this week.