My first bet of the NFL season turned out great.  Dak Prescott blew through the over and passed for over 400 yards!  Today, I'm liking the UNDER for Sam Darnold's passing yards, currently set at 251.5, -115.

There are a lot of unknowns with this pick since this is Sam's first regular season start with the Panthers and he's playing his old team, the Jets, who have a terrible defense.  Here are the reasons I still like the pick though.

First, Darnold averaged only 184 passing yards per game last season.  He only got over 251.5 yards in one game, the last game of the season against the Patriots, where the Patriots were likely resting their good players.



Second, Teddy Bridgewater, Carolina's QB last year also averaged just under 251.5 passing yards per game (248.86).

Third, during his 2 preseason starts this season, Darnold averaged only 178 passing yards per game, far fewer than his Jets preseason averages.

Given all of this, I'm liking the under.

Wish me luck!