Aaron Gordon Under 6.5 Reb (-112 DK)
73.1% of his defensive time was matched up with KAT and Naz Reid in Game 1. This led to 5 rebound chances as he was pulled away from the paint so often to defend their three point threat. He will continue to need to defend them both + AE as well. In the only game against the Timberwolves with KAT playing early in the regular season, his primary defenders were KAT and Reid where he had 4 rebound chances, which lines up with how they defended similarly in Game 1. Gordon is the only one who can properly matchup with both players as they at least have Cristian Braun to throw at Edwards for some bench help on defense (which I believe he'll get similar or even increased minutes in Game 2 tonight). KAT and Reid are such perimeter threats that pulling Gordon away from the paint is necessary. I thought there would be more to write about but really there is not much else to explain. Nothing complicated is happening. Not much switching is going on. Gordon just has to step up his defense on both players.
Miles McBride Under 9.5 Pts (-118 FD)
McBride had a solid series in Round 1 as his three-point shooting made an impact as double teams attempted to hound Jalen Brunson, but in this series he may not be as useful. The Pacers do not like to play help defense and even against Damian Lillard didn’t want to really do it who constantly torched them. This is a series Brunson should average at least 35 points per game. With the Pacers not playing much help defense, his open looks will not be as impactful as they were last series. 57% of his attempts in Round 1 were threes. When it came to hitting open threes, he was torching the 76ers shooting 11 of 20 from the field when open or wide open (4+ feet of space from nearest defender), but when it came to more contested shots with very tight or tight coverage (0-4 feet of space), he shot just 2 of 10 from the field. The Pacers were still among the top teams in allowing the lowest frequencies of open and wide open threes. DiVincenzo is going to be a bigger part of this series as that is who McBride typically rotates with as DiVincenzo will be relied upon to slow down Tyrese Haliburton, similar to being the guy to slow down Tyrese Maxey as the primary defender in the past game and a half. OG Anunoby will see some Haliburton but DiVincenzo fits the matchup better to keep up with speed, so they will stick OG on Siakam most likely. Shooting threes in general is going to be tough and creating off the dribble is going to be huge for the Knicks. McBride is a catch and shoot kind of guy.
Rudy Gobert Under 11.5 Pts (+104 FD)
(Before I wrote all of this he was not questionable with the birth of his child. If he doesn't play it'll just be a void anyways).
Gobert scoring relies a lot upon cuts and putbacks but neither team score much off second chance points. Both teams are in the top 3 in allowing the fewest opponent offensive rebounds in the postseason. This is going to be a physical series and they seem to let them play physical so far, but with the Nuggets at home they will get the more favorable whistle calls as we seen with the questionable Anthony Edwards technical but not calling one on Jamal Murray for his celebration. regardless they should let them play. The Nuggets were playing the roll man well in the pick & roll and just said we want to let Edwards cook but slow down everyone else, similar to the Timberwolves defensive gameplan of letting Jokic cook but slow everyone else down. One team executed that much better than the other but expect a similar gameplan from both teams yet again. The Timberwolves use of wing and guard screens to force switches limits Gobert pick & roll scoring chances. Nuggets were clogging the paint and cutting off those passing lanes very well.
Aaron Gordon Under 6.5 Reb (-112 DK)
73.1% of his defensive time was matched up with KAT and Naz Reid in Game 1. This led to 5 rebound chances as he was pulled away from the paint so often to defend their three point threat. He will continue to need to defend them both + AE as well. In the only game against the Timberwolves with KAT playing early in the regular season, his primary defenders were KAT and Reid where he had 4 rebound chances, which lines up with how they defended similarly in Game 1. Gordon is the only one who can properly matchup with both players as they at least have Cristian Braun to throw at Edwards for some bench help on defense (which I believe he'll get similar or even increased minutes in Game 2 tonight). KAT and Reid are such perimeter threats that pulling Gordon away from the paint is necessary. I thought there would be more to write about but really there is not much else to explain. Nothing complicated is happening. Not much switching is going on. Gordon just has to step up his defense on both players.
Miles McBride Under 9.5 Pts (-118 FD)
McBride had a solid series in Round 1 as his three-point shooting made an impact as double teams attempted to hound Jalen Brunson, but in this series he may not be as useful. The Pacers do not like to play help defense and even against Damian Lillard didn’t want to really do it who constantly torched them. This is a series Brunson should average at least 35 points per game. With the Pacers not playing much help defense, his open looks will not be as impactful as they were last series. 57% of his attempts in Round 1 were threes. When it came to hitting open threes, he was torching the 76ers shooting 11 of 20 from the field when open or wide open (4+ feet of space from nearest defender), but when it came to more contested shots with very tight or tight coverage (0-4 feet of space), he shot just 2 of 10 from the field. The Pacers were still among the top teams in allowing the lowest frequencies of open and wide open threes. DiVincenzo is going to be a bigger part of this series as that is who McBride typically rotates with as DiVincenzo will be relied upon to slow down Tyrese Haliburton, similar to being the guy to slow down Tyrese Maxey as the primary defender in the past game and a half. OG Anunoby will see some Haliburton but DiVincenzo fits the matchup better to keep up with speed, so they will stick OG on Siakam most likely. Shooting threes in general is going to be tough and creating off the dribble is going to be huge for the Knicks. McBride is a catch and shoot kind of guy.
Rudy Gobert Under 11.5 Pts (+104 FD)
(Before I wrote all of this he was not questionable with the birth of his child. If he doesn't play it'll just be a void anyways).
Gobert scoring relies a lot upon cuts and putbacks but neither team score much off second chance points. Both teams are in the top 3 in allowing the fewest opponent offensive rebounds in the postseason. This is going to be a physical series and they seem to let them play physical so far, but with the Nuggets at home they will get the more favorable whistle calls as we seen with the questionable Anthony Edwards technical but not calling one on Jamal Murray for his celebration. regardless they should let them play. The Nuggets were playing the roll man well in the pick & roll and just said we want to let Edwards cook but slow down everyone else, similar to the Timberwolves defensive gameplan of letting Jokic cook but slow everyone else down. One team executed that much better than the other but expect a similar gameplan from both teams yet again. The Timberwolves use of wing and guard screens to force switches limits Gobert pick & roll scoring chances. Nuggets were clogging the paint and cutting off those passing lanes very well.
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