Jalen Suggs Over 11.5 Pts (-120 FD)
Had 13 points last game on 4 of 16 shooting. The Cavaliers tried to force the Magic to shoot threes and that plan worked flawlessly. The Magic shot 8 of 30 from deep. That is not even the most surprising thing because 20 of those 30 three-point shots were considered open or wide open. They only hit 6 open or wide-open threes. An open three is when a defender is 4-6 feet away while a wide open three has the nearest defender 6+ feet away. Jalen Suggs was 1 of 7 on open and wide-open threes in Game 1. Overall, he was 1 for 10 on open or wide-open shots (meaning he was 0 for 3 on two’s). This is a young Magic team that was probably nervous but now that Game 1 is out of the way, they can shake all of that off. I don’t expect a 39% three-point shooter to continue to shooter 14% from three again, especially when 10 of his 16 field goal attempts were open. They will continue to need him on both sides of the ball as he played 33 minutes last game. He will continue to get 30+ minutes throughout this series. I expect Cavaliers to continue to take away the driving lanes, sagging off shooters and forcing a team who did not take many threes throughout the season (7th lowest frequency) to take threes and beat them that way. Franz has struggled to shoot this season and Paolo prefers midrange. Role players will play a huge role in this game for the Magic, and they need them to show up tonight. The Magic defense forced tough looks all night on the defensive end shooting wise and the Cavaliers just happened to make them. If the defense holds up and continues to force the Cavaliers to take tough shots, while the Magic somewhat hit open shots this will be a different story we are talking about going forward. With 30+ minutes, he’s over this line in 15 of 23 games this season, and when you factor in taking 10+ field goal attempts, he’s over in 12 of 17 games.
Mitchell Robinson Over 13.5 Pts+Reb (-112 DK)
Robinson was a huge help on the floor trying to defend Embiid in Game 1, and when he was on the floor, he had a plus/minus of +21, compared to Hartenstein with a plus/minus of -13. Robinson played the entire 4th quarter which shows they trust him even after missing about two months due to an ankle injury. He was even surprised he played 30 minutes. When matched up with Embiid, he forced him to shoot 2 of 11 from the field which is significant because the 76ers will only go as far as Embiid can take them. Embiid is going to have to limp his way through this series battling through his constant knee issues, but Robinson is giving them the best chance to slow him down. Before Mitchell’s injury he was anchoring this defense and looks to be back at it. They need physical defense to slow down the 76ers and Mitchell will be a big piece in that. He has earned his minutes and look for him to get around 30 minutes yet again. In games when he plays between 20-33 minutes, he’s gone over this prop in 15 of 21 games. If he does end up playing 30-35 minutes, he’s gone over this prop in 10 of 12 games. He had 19 rebound chances in Game 1. If he continues to dominate the offensive rebounds, the Knicks will have a huge advantage in this series. Embiid being hobbled hurts his rebounding chances and Paul Reed was a non-factor off the bench for the 76ers. Tobias Harris won’t be able to continuously rebound his own misses all game again.
Jalen Suggs Over 11.5 Pts (-120 FD)
Had 13 points last game on 4 of 16 shooting. The Cavaliers tried to force the Magic to shoot threes and that plan worked flawlessly. The Magic shot 8 of 30 from deep. That is not even the most surprising thing because 20 of those 30 three-point shots were considered open or wide open. They only hit 6 open or wide-open threes. An open three is when a defender is 4-6 feet away while a wide open three has the nearest defender 6+ feet away. Jalen Suggs was 1 of 7 on open and wide-open threes in Game 1. Overall, he was 1 for 10 on open or wide-open shots (meaning he was 0 for 3 on two’s). This is a young Magic team that was probably nervous but now that Game 1 is out of the way, they can shake all of that off. I don’t expect a 39% three-point shooter to continue to shooter 14% from three again, especially when 10 of his 16 field goal attempts were open. They will continue to need him on both sides of the ball as he played 33 minutes last game. He will continue to get 30+ minutes throughout this series. I expect Cavaliers to continue to take away the driving lanes, sagging off shooters and forcing a team who did not take many threes throughout the season (7th lowest frequency) to take threes and beat them that way. Franz has struggled to shoot this season and Paolo prefers midrange. Role players will play a huge role in this game for the Magic, and they need them to show up tonight. The Magic defense forced tough looks all night on the defensive end shooting wise and the Cavaliers just happened to make them. If the defense holds up and continues to force the Cavaliers to take tough shots, while the Magic somewhat hit open shots this will be a different story we are talking about going forward. With 30+ minutes, he’s over this line in 15 of 23 games this season, and when you factor in taking 10+ field goal attempts, he’s over in 12 of 17 games.
Mitchell Robinson Over 13.5 Pts+Reb (-112 DK)
Robinson was a huge help on the floor trying to defend Embiid in Game 1, and when he was on the floor, he had a plus/minus of +21, compared to Hartenstein with a plus/minus of -13. Robinson played the entire 4th quarter which shows they trust him even after missing about two months due to an ankle injury. He was even surprised he played 30 minutes. When matched up with Embiid, he forced him to shoot 2 of 11 from the field which is significant because the 76ers will only go as far as Embiid can take them. Embiid is going to have to limp his way through this series battling through his constant knee issues, but Robinson is giving them the best chance to slow him down. Before Mitchell’s injury he was anchoring this defense and looks to be back at it. They need physical defense to slow down the 76ers and Mitchell will be a big piece in that. He has earned his minutes and look for him to get around 30 minutes yet again. In games when he plays between 20-33 minutes, he’s gone over this prop in 15 of 21 games. If he does end up playing 30-35 minutes, he’s gone over this prop in 10 of 12 games. He had 19 rebound chances in Game 1. If he continues to dominate the offensive rebounds, the Knicks will have a huge advantage in this series. Embiid being hobbled hurts his rebounding chances and Paul Reed was a non-factor off the bench for the 76ers. Tobias Harris won’t be able to continuously rebound his own misses all game again.
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