LIIC Day 3. Bucks vs Suns Spread Pick
Taking a look at the point spread in Bucks vs Suns Game 1
*Giannis has been upgraded to questionable, increasing the risk of this play greatly. I would not recommend tailing*
Hey what's up. I'm back for my 2nd post of the LIIC, which will also be for Game 1 of the NBA Finals. Along with my pick yesterday of Deandre Ayton over 15.5 points, hopefully I can go 2-0 tonight.
Today I will be discussing why I like the Suns -5.5 in Game 1.
To start things off, this postseason in Game 1's, the Phoenix Suns have gone 3-0 ATS. They won all 3 of these games.
They have also gone 11-5 ATS overall in the playoffs so far.
Milwaukee, on the other hand, has gone 0-3 ATS in Game 1's so far. They won 1/3 of these games, with the win vs the Heat coming down to a clutch Khris Middleton shot in overtime.
And overall in the playoffs the Bucks are 10-7 ATS.
These initial trends support taking the Suns spread, as they seem to get out to a hot start in the series, while the Bucks seems to need a game to adjust to their new opponent. (I'm sure none of that has to do with Coach Budenholzer right? #FIRE BUD)
Also, as the chart below shows, the Suns have done well at home these playoffs, going 5-3 ATS when at home. Milwaukee has been fine on the road, going 5-4 ATS.
Now the question marks surrounding Giannis have put the Bucks into a position they don't usually find themselves in.... as underdogs.
In games in which the Bucks were underdogs according to the point spread, including games with Giannis, they have gone 3-6 ATS.
Focusing on games without Giannis, this chart shows the set point spread and final score spread in games this season in which he did not play.
In these games they have gone a fine 7-6 ATS, although that could be due in part because they played against weak teams. Of these games only 4/13 were versus playoff teams (2 of these being the Conference Finals games against the Hawks), and despite not having Giannis they were still favored in 9/13 games, which is not the case tonight.
One thing that isn't amazing, but isn't bad, for this play is that Phoenix has gone 19-18-1 ATS when favored by 5.5 or more points this season.
Overall, I do not think Giannis will play tonight, but if he does he most likely will not be at 100%. I expect the Suns to take Game 1 at home tonight and cover the spread in the process.
Taking a look at the point spread in Bucks vs Suns Game 1
*Giannis has been upgraded to questionable, increasing the risk of this play greatly. I would not recommend tailing*
Hey what's up. I'm back for my 2nd post of the LIIC, which will also be for Game 1 of the NBA Finals. Along with my pick yesterday of Deandre Ayton over 15.5 points, hopefully I can go 2-0 tonight.
Today I will be discussing why I like the Suns -5.5 in Game 1.
To start things off, this postseason in Game 1's, the Phoenix Suns have gone 3-0 ATS. They won all 3 of these games.
They have also gone 11-5 ATS overall in the playoffs so far.
Milwaukee, on the other hand, has gone 0-3 ATS in Game 1's so far. They won 1/3 of these games, with the win vs the Heat coming down to a clutch Khris Middleton shot in overtime.
And overall in the playoffs the Bucks are 10-7 ATS.
These initial trends support taking the Suns spread, as they seem to get out to a hot start in the series, while the Bucks seems to need a game to adjust to their new opponent. (I'm sure none of that has to do with Coach Budenholzer right? #FIRE BUD)
Also, as the chart below shows, the Suns have done well at home these playoffs, going 5-3 ATS when at home. Milwaukee has been fine on the road, going 5-4 ATS.
Now the question marks surrounding Giannis have put the Bucks into a position they don't usually find themselves in.... as underdogs.
In games in which the Bucks were underdogs according to the point spread, including games with Giannis, they have gone 3-6 ATS.
Focusing on games without Giannis, this chart shows the set point spread and final score spread in games this season in which he did not play.
In these games they have gone a fine 7-6 ATS, although that could be due in part because they played against weak teams. Of these games only 4/13 were versus playoff teams (2 of these being the Conference Finals games against the Hawks), and despite not having Giannis they were still favored in 9/13 games, which is not the case tonight.
One thing that isn't amazing, but isn't bad, for this play is that Phoenix has gone 19-18-1 ATS when favored by 5.5 or more points this season.
Overall, I do not think Giannis will play tonight, but if he does he most likely will not be at 100%. I expect the Suns to take Game 1 at home tonight and cover the spread in the process.
Share your best bets!