Despite recent trends, Obi Toppin is primed to surpass his 11.5 points prop in the upcoming NBA In-Season Tournament quarterfinals between Boston and Indiana.

The NBA In-Season Tournament is in full swing, and with the quarterfinals upon us, the stakes couldn't be higher. One player worth keeping an eye on is Obi Toppin, Indiana's rising star, who's been putting up solid numbers throughout the tournament.

Sure, Toppin's recent regular-season performance might not have you rushing to bet on him hitting the over on his 11.5 points prop. After all, the dude's been averaging just 6.8 points over his last 10 games, and a meager 3.6 points in his last five. But let's not get caught up in recency bias here. The game of basketball isn't just black and white stats; it's about context, trends, and gut instincts.

Now, let's get one thing straight: Toppin is not your everyday benchwarmer. This season alone, he's had 12 games where he's scored more than 11.5 points. And while it's true that he's had 66 games scoring less than 11.5 points, those numbers don't reflect his tournament performance. In fact, in the tournament, Toppin has been averaging a staggering 17.3 points with a 67% shooting percentage. Talk about stepping up when it counts.

And let's not forget about Toppin's performance against Indiana. In three games against the Pacers, he's averaging an impressive 23.67 points. That's more than double the over/under line we're talking about. Now, if that doesn't scream "value bet," I don't know what does.

But the real clincher here is Toppin's performance in high-stakes games. The dude seems to thrive when the pressure is on. In the last 20 games, he's averaged 10.75 points, and he's scored more than 11.5 points in seven of those games.


Now, I'm not saying that Toppin hitting the over is a sure-fire thing. There's no such thing in the world of sports betting. But given his past performance against Indiana, his impressive tournament stats, and his ability to step up in crucial games, I'd say there's a solid case to be made for betting on Toppin to surpass his 11.5 points prop.

So, if you're looking to place a smart, calculated bet in the upcoming Indiana-Boston showdown, I'd say Toppin's your guy. After all, the stats don't lie, and in this case, they're all pointing to one thing: Toppin hitting the over. And when the final buzzer sounds and Toppin's tally exceeds that 11.5 mark, you'll be glad you didn't let the recent trends sway your decision.

Remember, folks, in the end, it's all about playing the long game. And right now, the long game is saying Obi Toppin is going to bring the heat against Boston. So, get ready to watch Toppin light up the scoreboard and potentially turn a nice profit for those who back him.