Taking a look at Pat Connaughton over 1,5 3's
Hey, what's up everyone. Since my last article the injury bug has struck yet again, this time taking out Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo. Thankfully, he suffered no significant structural damage to his knee. With Giannis out, other players on the Bucks will need to step up tonight, and I think Pat Connaughton will contribute, making over 1.5 3's.
In the regular season, Giannis missed 11 games. This is a good enough sample size in my opinion to look at how Connaughton's production changes without Giannis.
In the 11 games, Connaughton hit over 1.5 3's 7/11 times, 63%. He averaged 2.1 made on 4.5 attempts in these games, higher than his season average of 1.3 makes in 3.8 attempts.
Additionally, for the regular season and playoffs, 83% of Connaughton's points came from 3 pointers (456/549). His line is set at 8.5 points tonight, which would imply 7.005 of his points coming from 3 today. This would cover the 1.5 line.
One drawback to this bet is Connaughton has not been great this postseason, covering the line in only 5/15 games, 33%, while averaging 21 minutes played. He has only hit over 1.5 3's in 1 out of the 4 games in the series vs Atlanta, the last 4 games on the chart. Connaughton also cleared this line only 1 out of 3 times in their regular season games versus the Hawks.
So why do I like this line? Connaughton saw the 2nd largest increase in PPG when Giannis was out, a extra 3.4 points. (Bobby Portis was 1st with an increase of 5.4 points). In these 11 games he averaged 9.5 points. Based off of his average 80% of points coming from 3, this projects him for 2 or 3 3's made.
The entire reason that I wrote this though is that the line is priced at -105 for the over.
I expected significant juice to be on the over like it is with fellow Bucks 3 point specialist Bryn Forbes.
Especially since Coach Budenholzer has shown that he wants Connaughton out on the floor more in this series. (Green is Bryn Forbes' minutes, Blue is Connaughton's).
Without Giannis, the Bucks role players will need to step up offensively. Due to his play without Giannis in the regular season and the good price, I like Pat Connaughton over 1.5 3's in Game 5.
Taking a look at Pat Connaughton over 1,5 3's
Hey, what's up everyone. Since my last article the injury bug has struck yet again, this time taking out Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo. Thankfully, he suffered no significant structural damage to his knee. With Giannis out, other players on the Bucks will need to step up tonight, and I think Pat Connaughton will contribute, making over 1.5 3's.
In the regular season, Giannis missed 11 games. This is a good enough sample size in my opinion to look at how Connaughton's production changes without Giannis.
In the 11 games, Connaughton hit over 1.5 3's 7/11 times, 63%. He averaged 2.1 made on 4.5 attempts in these games, higher than his season average of 1.3 makes in 3.8 attempts.
Additionally, for the regular season and playoffs, 83% of Connaughton's points came from 3 pointers (456/549). His line is set at 8.5 points tonight, which would imply 7.005 of his points coming from 3 today. This would cover the 1.5 line.
One drawback to this bet is Connaughton has not been great this postseason, covering the line in only 5/15 games, 33%, while averaging 21 minutes played. He has only hit over 1.5 3's in 1 out of the 4 games in the series vs Atlanta, the last 4 games on the chart. Connaughton also cleared this line only 1 out of 3 times in their regular season games versus the Hawks.
The entire reason that I wrote this though is that the line is priced at -105 for the over.
I expected significant juice to be on the over like it is with fellow Bucks 3 point specialist Bryn Forbes.
Especially since Coach Budenholzer has shown that he wants Connaughton out on the floor more in this series. (Green is Bryn Forbes' minutes, Blue is Connaughton's).
Without Giannis, the Bucks role players will need to step up offensively. Due to his play without Giannis in the regular season and the good price, I like Pat Connaughton over 1.5 3's in Game 5.
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