As the Milwaukee Bucks face off against the Toronto Raptors, Damian Lillard's recent downward trend in three-pointers suggests that he might not hit the over on 2.5 threes.
Pick 5: Damian Lillard Threes U2.5 (+135 on DraftKings)
There's a storm brewing in the NBA as the Milwaukee Bucks prepare to take on the Toronto Raptors. But amidst the thunderous applause and the lightning-quick plays, there's a cloud hanging over Damian Lillard's three-pointer game. The numbers don't lie, and for those of us playing the betting game, understanding these numbers could be the difference between a winning night and a losing one.
Damian Lillard, who usually rains threes from the arc, has been experiencing a dry spell recently. Over the last 10 games, Lillard's three-pointers have averaged at 3.8 per game, but the real kicker is that he's had more than 2.5 threes in only 5 of those games. Crunching down the numbers further, in his last 5 games, he's hit over 2.5 threes in just 2 games. This is a stark contrast to his season average of 4.21 three-pointers made per game.
Sure, every baller has their off days, but these numbers aren't just a blip on the radar. Lillard's performance has been trending down in the last 10 games and continues to do so in his last 5 games. His performance at home has been a tad better, averaging 4.59 threes, but on the road, his average drops to 3.73 threes. And let's not forget, the upcoming game against the Raptors is away.
Now let's talk about the Raptors. They've been pretty solid in defending the arc this season, allowing just 11.3 three-point makes per game, the sixth lowest in the league. In his two encounters with Toronto, Dame has averaged only 2.5 three-pointers made. Given the Raptors' solid three-point defense, it's not surprising that Lillard's numbers have taken a hit.
The recent calf injury Lillard has sustained, causing him to miss two games, could also be a factor. While he's back in action now, his performance doesn't seem up to par. His shooting average is down to 40%, and his three-point percentage is at a dismal 29%. Whether it's the injury affecting his game or his chemistry with Giannis Antetokounmpo that's still developing, the fact remains that Lillard hasn't looked comfortable on the court recently.
The numbers are painting a clear picture here. While Dame is an all-time great who can bounce back anytime, his recent performance coupled with the Raptors' solid three-point defense suggests that he's more likely to have under 2.5 threes in the upcoming game. Remember, sports betting isn't just about following your heart; it's about following the numbers, trends, and facts. So, as much as we love to see Dame raining threes from the arc, the stats suggest we might have to brace ourselves for a drier spell this game. It's not about betting against Dame; it's about betting smart.