Despite Luka Dončić's star power, betting the under on his combined rebounds and assists against the Washington Wizards is the savvy move.
Pick 4: Luka Dončić Rebounds + Assists U17.5 (-130 on DraftKings)
Buckle up, hoop heads, we're diving deep into the numbers and trends for our all-star Luka Dončić. Now, we all know Luka can ball. The guy's got skills that make seasoned vets blush, but every star has its dim days, and Luka's been having a few of those recently.
Let's talk some stats. On average, Luka's been racking up 16.64 rebounds and assists this season. Pretty impressive, right? But here's where things get a little dicey. Over his last 10 games, that average dips to 16.0, and in his last five? It's down to 14.8. And as much as it stings to see our boy on a downward trend, it's crucial to face the numbers head-on.
Now, let's talk about the game at hand: Mavs vs. Wizards. The line for Luka's combined rebounds and assists is set at 17.5. Seems reachable for a player of Luka's caliber, right? But the numbers tell a different story. In his last 10 games, he's managed to surpass that line only half the time. And in his last five games? He hasn't crossed that line once. That's right, not a single time.
It's not just Luka's recent performance that's pointing us towards the under. The Wizards are no slouches when it comes to boxing out. So far in 2023, they've held their opponents to an average of just 7.7 total rebounds per game. That's some staunch defense right there.
Moreover, in his two games against Washington this season, Luka's only managed to average 18.0 rebounds and assists. That's just barely scraping over the line set for the upcoming game. And remember, that's when he was on a higher trend.
So, what's the play here? It's simple: bet the under on Luka's combined rebounds and assists. Why? Because the numbers don't lie. Luka's on a downtrend, the Wizards play tight D, and the line's set just a tad too high based on recent performances.
Now, don't get it twisted. This isn't a knock on Luka. The guy's a superstar and is bound to bounce back. But for this particular matchup, the stats are signaling a strong lean towards the under. Remember, sports betting isn't about picking favorites; it's about finding value and playing the odds. And in this case, the under on Luka's rebounds and assists is where the value lies.