Taking a look at at Brook Lopez Under 16,5 PRA for Game 2.
Hey what's up everyone. Let me preface this article by saying that I'm not good at sports betting, so I'm not telling you to go place this. I'm just here to present some data and allow you to make your own judgements based on it. Usually I'm not comfortable with suggesting picks, but as a big Bucks fan I feel that I am familiar enough with the team to help provide insight.
You didn't need to be a Bucks fan to see that Trae Young was picking apart the Bucks defense, Brook Lopez specifically, in pick and roll situations during Game 1. Young shot 11-19 when guarded by Lopez, not to mention all of the assists he was able to dish to his teammates as they rolled to the rim. Lopez also had the worst plus/minus on the team at -14.
Lopez's inability to defend the pick and roll effectively was on display in the previous series against the Brooklyn Nets, in which Kevin Durant was able to get many wide open midrange shots.
This flaw was so apparent that Milwaukee's Coach Mike Budenholzer, who is notorious for not making adjustments, completely went away from Lopez in the 2nd half, playing him only 2 minutes compared to his 18 minutes in the 1st half. Budenholzer instead decided to go 'small ball', playing Giannis at center, which was very effective. When Trae Young was defended by Giannis, he shot 3-11, including 1-7 in the 4th quarter.
This leads me to expect a large reduction in Lopez's minutes from the 32.0 minutes he averaged in the Bucks first two series.
As shown in the chart above, Lopez has only gone under 16.5 PRA in 4/12 games this postseason, which is not great, but I believe that this is due to the massive amount of minutes that he has received in each game. I calculated Lopez's PRA produced per minute which comes out to 0.64705. Using that number, Lopez would need to play 26 minutes to reach 17 PRA which I do not expect him to get. (Using PRA per minute is probably somewhat flawed due to including different opponents, but its a decent estimation)
Looking at Lopez this season against the Hawks, he has gone under 16.5 PRA in 3/4 games including Game 1, despite playing over 25 minutes in each of their other 3 matchups.
This makes sense when you consider that Atlanta held opposing starting centers to the 4th lowest average PRA this season. This is likely due in part to the strong rebounding of Clint Capela, who has held Lopez to 3, 12, 1, and 2 rebounds in their matchups this season.
Looking at Lopez this entire season, he has had under 16.5 PRA in 34/74 games, 46%. Again, not great.
Narrowing it down to games versus the top 10 teams in terms of lowest PRA allowed to starting centers from the previous chart, which includes Atlanta, Lopez has gone under in 13/25 games, 54%. Better.
Now because I believe Lopez will see a reduction in minutes for Game 2, I researched the rate that Lopez has under 16.5 PRA based on how many minutes he gets.
In games in which Lopez played less than 30 minutes, he had under 16.5 PRA in 27/50, 54%
Less than 29 minutes | 25/46, 54% |
Less than 28 minutes | 22/41, 54% |
Less than 27 minutes | 20/33, 60% |
Less than 26 minutes | 19/28, 68% |
Less than 25 minutes | 17/23, 74% |
As you can see, when playing lower minutes Lopez fails to eclipse 17 PRA more often. Also I know that games in which Lopez left with injury midgame would skew this stat, but he did not have any games with under 15 minutes played, so it appears that he did not leave any games early due to injury.
Finally, I wanted to see if being Home-Away affects the PRA production of Lopez, as this game will be played in Fiserv Forum. If his production at home is better, such as is the case with Khris Middleton for example, it could be cause for concern.
Surprisingly, Lopez has a lower PRA average at home this season.
Overall, its clear that in order for the Bucks to be successful they need to defend Trae Young better, specifically in the pick and roll. Lopez is not able to do this and if him only playing 2 min in the 2nd half of Game 1 is any indication, Coach Bud knows that too. I expect to see less of him in Game 2 and for Capela to not allow him to pick up many rebounds, causing Lopez to go under his PRA line.
(Line pictured via Fanduel, BetMGM has it at -115, DraftKings is not posted yet)
If you made it this far, thanks for reading. I'd like to give a quick shoutout to Trevor Richfield who does weekly livestreams Wednesdays at 7:00 PM EST on https://www.twitch.tv/pinesports . If you haven't checked it out yet be sure to do so. Anyways, Go Bucks!
Taking a look at at Brook Lopez Under 16,5 PRA for Game 2.
Hey what's up everyone. Let me preface this article by saying that I'm not good at sports betting, so I'm not telling you to go place this. I'm just here to present some data and allow you to make your own judgements based on it. Usually I'm not comfortable with suggesting picks, but as a big Bucks fan I feel that I am familiar enough with the team to help provide insight.
You didn't need to be a Bucks fan to see that Trae Young was picking apart the Bucks defense, Brook Lopez specifically, in pick and roll situations during Game 1. Young shot 11-19 when guarded by Lopez, not to mention all of the assists he was able to dish to his teammates as they rolled to the rim. Lopez also had the worst plus/minus on the team at -14.
Lopez's inability to defend the pick and roll effectively was on display in the previous series against the Brooklyn Nets, in which Kevin Durant was able to get many wide open midrange shots.
This flaw was so apparent that Milwaukee's Coach Mike Budenholzer, who is notorious for not making adjustments, completely went away from Lopez in the 2nd half, playing him only 2 minutes compared to his 18 minutes in the 1st half. Budenholzer instead decided to go 'small ball', playing Giannis at center, which was very effective. When Trae Young was defended by Giannis, he shot 3-11, including 1-7 in the 4th quarter.
This leads me to expect a large reduction in Lopez's minutes from the 32.0 minutes he averaged in the Bucks first two series.
Looking at Lopez this season against the Hawks, he has gone under 16.5 PRA in 3/4 games including Game 1, despite playing over 25 minutes in each of their other 3 matchups.
This makes sense when you consider that Atlanta held opposing starting centers to the 4th lowest average PRA this season. This is likely due in part to the strong rebounding of Clint Capela, who has held Lopez to 3, 12, 1, and 2 rebounds in their matchups this season.
Looking at Lopez this entire season, he has had under 16.5 PRA in 34/74 games, 46%. Again, not great.
Narrowing it down to games versus the top 10 teams in terms of lowest PRA allowed to starting centers from the previous chart, which includes Atlanta, Lopez has gone under in 13/25 games, 54%. Better.
Now because I believe Lopez will see a reduction in minutes for Game 2, I researched the rate that Lopez has under 16.5 PRA based on how many minutes he gets.
In games in which Lopez played less than 30 minutes, he had under 16.5 PRA in 27/50, 54%
As you can see, when playing lower minutes Lopez fails to eclipse 17 PRA more often. Also I know that games in which Lopez left with injury midgame would skew this stat, but he did not have any games with under 15 minutes played, so it appears that he did not leave any games early due to injury.
Finally, I wanted to see if being Home-Away affects the PRA production of Lopez, as this game will be played in Fiserv Forum. If his production at home is better, such as is the case with Khris Middleton for example, it could be cause for concern.
Surprisingly, Lopez has a lower PRA average at home this season.
Overall, its clear that in order for the Bucks to be successful they need to defend Trae Young better, specifically in the pick and roll. Lopez is not able to do this and if him only playing 2 min in the 2nd half of Game 1 is any indication, Coach Bud knows that too. I expect to see less of him in Game 2 and for Capela to not allow him to pick up many rebounds, causing Lopez to go under his PRA line.
If you made it this far, thanks for reading. I'd like to give a quick shoutout to Trevor Richfield who does weekly livestreams Wednesdays at 7:00 PM EST on https://www.twitch.tv/pinesports . If you haven't checked it out yet be sure to do so. Anyways, Go Bucks!
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Awesome analysis! I don't think you need the preface in the beginning.... this is better than 99.9% of sports betting analysis I've read.