With NHL training camps getting underway in less than a month and just six weeks until the start of the regular season, now is as good a time as any to start digging into some season long player props for the 2023-2024 season.
Using PrizePicks to place my wager, below I've laid out my rationale for six player props I feel confident in heading into the season.
Connor Bedard UNDER 69.5 points
After being touted as a generational talent and selected #1 overall by the Blackhawks in this year's draft, expectations are sky-high for Bedard. With Toews and Kane out of the picture and guys like DeBrincat and Dach in the rearview mirror, this team is Bedard's through and through, for better or worse.
Looking back at some of the standout #1 picks of the last 20 years, you can see arguments either way. Future Hall of Famers like Ovechkin and Crosby had 100+ points in their rookie outings, while stars like Auston Matthews and Nathan MacKinnon had 69 and 63 points respectively. Connor McDavid had 48 points in just 45 games (averages out to 87 points over a full season). While his rookie season was cut short by COVID-19, Jack Hughes had just 21 points in 61 games.
Looking at these historical trends as well as the makeup of Chicago's roster, I think MacKinnon's debut with Colorado is the best analog. If Bedard performs as advertised, he will easily be the best player on the roster and the focus of all opponent game planning in every single game. I just don't think there is enough supporting talent on this squad to make me believe he will notch 70+ points this season.
Tyler Toffoli UNDER 70.5 points
Coming off a solid 73-point season for the Calgary Flames, it is easy to believe Toffoli will pick up where he left off in New Jersey. However, after playing parts of 11 seasons in the NHL, it is hard for me to assume he is now a lock for 70+ points when last season was his sole performance of more than 60 points and only his second above 50 points.
There are going to be a lot of mouths to feed in New Jersey this season and early word is that Toffoli will share a line with star of the team Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt. While it is certainly possible to see a world where Toffoli racks up plenty of points as a complement to Hughes, his play style suggests he will need to be fed the puck for shooting chances to generate points, versus facilitating shot opportunities for Hughes (a prolific shooter). Where he may set himself apart is on the Power Play. If he gets away from Hughes and gets to anchor their PP2 unit, he will likely get the primary looks at scoring chances as his linemates look to set him up.
Keep an eye on reports from training camp and the preseason, but I have a hard time seeing Toffoli repeat last season's performance given his new team.
Kirill Kaprizov OVER 43.5 goals
Admittedly a bit of a homer pick on my part, but I am confident "Kirill the Thrill" will hit this mark. Though he missed 15 games last season, Kaprizov still got to the 40-goal mark by the end of the season. With some new assistants breathing life into the power play (hopefully) and more stability at the Center position on the top line, barring another injury, I have no reason to think Kaprizov will regress this season.
Brayden Point OVER 38.5 goals
Quietly putting up a 50-goal season last year, the hopes of the Tampa Bay Lightning increasingly rely on Point continuing to serve as a volume-scoring threat, particularly as Stamkos and Kucherov age. While I question whether he will hit 50 goals again this season, I feel confident he will make it to at least 40.
Tristan Jarry OVER 28.5 goalie wins
Starting 47 games last season, Jarry recorded just 24 wins as the Penguins missed the playoffs for the first time in more than 15 years. With new management in the form of former Toronto GM Kyle Dubas and the addition of reigning Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson to complement Crosby, Malkin, and Letang, there is ample reason for Pittsburgh fans to be optimistic heading into a new season. Simply put, the Pens should win more games this season, and as the primary starter, Jarry's W column should be one of the primary beneficiaries as he works to silence the haters and justify his new contract. Adding Nedeljkovic does give Pittsburgh a serviceable backup, but things will not be going according to plan if he starts more than a handful of games.
Karel Vejmelka OVER 20.5 goalie wins
While no one expects great things from the Coyotes this season, a look at some of their offseason moves suggests a team that is likely to be more competitive than last year's squad. With the addition of veteran forwards like Jason Zucker and Alexander Kerfoot, experienced players Matt Dumba and Sean Durzi on the blue line, and young prospects like Logan Cooley (not to mention the continued maturation of Keller, Hayton, Valimaki, etc), Arizona looks to be scrappier on paper at least, a team that should log more wins than last year's outing.
With a better roster in front of him, Vejmelka will look to improve on his oftentimes impressive performance last season. Starting 49 games, the young netminder logged just 18 wins but showed flashes of brilliant play. Though he will likely lose some starts to backup Connor Ingram and there is always the risk of a basement team like Arizona trading him to a contender, the Coyotes feel like a team that is ready to start competing and it seems like Vejmelka will play a key role in any success they have.
Best of luck if you decide to tail, no hard feelings if you fade it entirely. Whatever you do, let's go out there and take some money from the books this season.
All the best,
Your Friendly Neighborhood Props Guy (@fnpropsguy on Twitter)
Using PrizePicks to place my wager, below I've laid out my rationale for six player props I feel confident in heading into the season.
Connor Bedard UNDER 69.5 points
After being touted as a generational talent and selected #1 overall by the Blackhawks in this year's draft, expectations are sky-high for Bedard. With Toews and Kane out of the picture and guys like DeBrincat and Dach in the rearview mirror, this team is Bedard's through and through, for better or worse.
Looking back at some of the standout #1 picks of the last 20 years, you can see arguments either way. Future Hall of Famers like Ovechkin and Crosby had 100+ points in their rookie outings, while stars like Auston Matthews and Nathan MacKinnon had 69 and 63 points respectively. Connor McDavid had 48 points in just 45 games (averages out to 87 points over a full season). While his rookie season was cut short by COVID-19, Jack Hughes had just 21 points in 61 games.
Looking at these historical trends as well as the makeup of Chicago's roster, I think MacKinnon's debut with Colorado is the best analog. If Bedard performs as advertised, he will easily be the best player on the roster and the focus of all opponent game planning in every single game. I just don't think there is enough supporting talent on this squad to make me believe he will notch 70+ points this season.
Tyler Toffoli UNDER 70.5 points
Coming off a solid 73-point season for the Calgary Flames, it is easy to believe Toffoli will pick up where he left off in New Jersey. However, after playing parts of 11 seasons in the NHL, it is hard for me to assume he is now a lock for 70+ points when last season was his sole performance of more than 60 points and only his second above 50 points.
There are going to be a lot of mouths to feed in New Jersey this season and early word is that Toffoli will share a line with star of the team Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt. While it is certainly possible to see a world where Toffoli racks up plenty of points as a complement to Hughes, his play style suggests he will need to be fed the puck for shooting chances to generate points, versus facilitating shot opportunities for Hughes (a prolific shooter). Where he may set himself apart is on the Power Play. If he gets away from Hughes and gets to anchor their PP2 unit, he will likely get the primary looks at scoring chances as his linemates look to set him up.
Keep an eye on reports from training camp and the preseason, but I have a hard time seeing Toffoli repeat last season's performance given his new team.
Kirill Kaprizov OVER 43.5 goals
Admittedly a bit of a homer pick on my part, but I am confident "Kirill the Thrill" will hit this mark. Though he missed 15 games last season, Kaprizov still got to the 40-goal mark by the end of the season. With some new assistants breathing life into the power play (hopefully) and more stability at the Center position on the top line, barring another injury, I have no reason to think Kaprizov will regress this season.
Brayden Point OVER 38.5 goals
Quietly putting up a 50-goal season last year, the hopes of the Tampa Bay Lightning increasingly rely on Point continuing to serve as a volume-scoring threat, particularly as Stamkos and Kucherov age. While I question whether he will hit 50 goals again this season, I feel confident he will make it to at least 40.
Tristan Jarry OVER 28.5 goalie wins
Starting 47 games last season, Jarry recorded just 24 wins as the Penguins missed the playoffs for the first time in more than 15 years. With new management in the form of former Toronto GM Kyle Dubas and the addition of reigning Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson to complement Crosby, Malkin, and Letang, there is ample reason for Pittsburgh fans to be optimistic heading into a new season. Simply put, the Pens should win more games this season, and as the primary starter, Jarry's W column should be one of the primary beneficiaries as he works to silence the haters and justify his new contract. Adding Nedeljkovic does give Pittsburgh a serviceable backup, but things will not be going according to plan if he starts more than a handful of games.
Karel Vejmelka OVER 20.5 goalie wins
While no one expects great things from the Coyotes this season, a look at some of their offseason moves suggests a team that is likely to be more competitive than last year's squad. With the addition of veteran forwards like Jason Zucker and Alexander Kerfoot, experienced players Matt Dumba and Sean Durzi on the blue line, and young prospects like Logan Cooley (not to mention the continued maturation of Keller, Hayton, Valimaki, etc), Arizona looks to be scrappier on paper at least, a team that should log more wins than last year's outing.
With a better roster in front of him, Vejmelka will look to improve on his oftentimes impressive performance last season. Starting 49 games, the young netminder logged just 18 wins but showed flashes of brilliant play. Though he will likely lose some starts to backup Connor Ingram and there is always the risk of a basement team like Arizona trading him to a contender, the Coyotes feel like a team that is ready to start competing and it seems like Vejmelka will play a key role in any success they have.
Best of luck if you decide to tail, no hard feelings if you fade it entirely. Whatever you do, let's go out there and take some money from the books this season.
All the best,
Your Friendly Neighborhood Props Guy (@fnpropsguy on Twitter)
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