0.75U Lance Lynn (CSW) over 2.5 earned runs allowed (-119) available at Caesars sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -140 odds.

0.5U Lance Lynn (CWS) over 5.5 hits allowed (+110) available at BetMGM sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -110 odds. 

I like most angles that center around fading Lance Lynn today. The always-angry, nut-grabbing, 36-year-old Lynn turned heads with 16 strikeouts against the Mariners 2 starts ago, but he still allowed 3 earned runs in that game. That was his 12th time in 16 starts this season allowing 3 or more earned runs while he has allowed 4 or more 9 times. Lynn's 6.40 ERA has a better-looking 4.86 FIP, but that mark still ranks 9th worst among qualified pitchers. His 10.1%-barrel rate ranks 22nd percentile and has resulted in 19 home runs allowed, and his 40.5% hard-hit rate is the worst mark of his statcast career. With a 25th percentile xSLG and 36th percentile xBA his 100 hits allowed across 90 innings should come as no surprise. Lynn has an absurd workload, averaging 101.1 pitches per start and throwing 105, 114, and 105 in his last 3 outings. His 25.25 batters faced per start has resulted in allowing 6 or more hits in 10 of his 16 starts this season. 

Lynn already faced Los Angles this season on May 31st, allowing 8 hits, 2 walks, 3 home runs, and 8 earned runs in only 4 innings (89 pitches) of work. Lynn's out prop is set at 17.5 with -190 or heavier juice towards the over for today's game. Given his struggles the 3rd time through the order (.280 AVG, .902 OPS) and the number of batters he has faced the 3rd time through (109 PA this year), paying -119 for over 2.5 earned runs made more sense to me than paying -115 for over 2.5 on the Angels first 5 innings team total. Granted, an error could lead to a string of unearned runs but that price differential didn't seem far enough away to opt for the F5 angle. Nonetheless, Lynn's leash is expected to be long in this game which helps both bets. 

The right-hander throws his 4-seamer (42.2%), Cutter (26.6%), and sinker (14.0%) with heavy usage, and when behind in counts his non-fastball usage (changeups curveballs and sliders) drops from 17.1% to 8.6%. In ISO the Angels rank 11th, 3rd, and 7th against right-handed 4-seamers, cutters, and sinkers respectively. They also rank 2nd in wOBA against both right-handed sinkers and cutters. The Angels have inflated numbers in the last 30 days thanks to their explosion in Coors. When zooming out to an entire season sample, LA still ranks 9th in AVG (referenced for the hit prop), 4th in wOBA and ISO, and have a wRC+ of 116. The active Angels roster has a combined .299 average and .918 OPS against Lynn across a sample of 127 PA. Shohei Ohtani alone is 10/21 against him with 3 home runs. Even new acquisition Mike Moustakas has 3 home runs off Lynn in only 21 career head-to-head PA. With temperatures in the mid-70s and wind blowing out I look for Lynn to struggle once again, even if his outs come via a 3rd strike.

0.75U Brayan Bello (BOS) over 17.5 outs recorded (-130) available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -150 odds.

I am buying what Brayan Bello is selling lately and am backing his over 17.5 outs prop for his 2nd straight trip to the mound. The 24-year-old highly touted right-hander has found a groove of late and has been rewarded with an increased workload. Bello has thrown 97 or more pitches in 8 straight starts while averaging 100.75 pitches per start in that span and completing 6 or more innings 6 times. That includes his last 3 outings which have spanned 7, 7, and 6.2 innings against the Yankees twice and the White Sox. Chicago was a good matchup for him due to their high ground ball rate (46.4% vs RHP L30 days is 3rd highest) and impatient nature (3.81 pitches per PA tied for 2nd fewest as team.) Miami is similar in both categories, recording a 46.8% GB% L30 days vs RHP and averaging 3.85 P/PA this season. 

Bello throws his sinker an arsenal high 34.5% of the time as part of his 4-pitch repertoire. That pitch helps generate a lethal 57.6% ground ball rate, up 2.2% from last season's mark and 12.9% higher than league average. Against right-handed sinkers this season Miami ranks just 23rd in wOBA and 27th in ISO while still striking out at the 9th lowest rate. Essentially contact is made, but not well enough to produce with it, and that is exactly what we are looking for in this matchup. Miami has very little pop against the rest of his arsenal either, ranking 19th in ISO against right-handed 4-seamers while 22nd against changeups and 23rd against sliders. Bello also whipped out a new cutter in his last outing, throwing that pitch 9 times. Hopefully for the sake of this bet he either leaves that experiment alone today, or has plus command of his new pitch. A 64.4% first pitch strike rate this season has helped improve his efficiency and lower his BB% by 2.7%. Miami has the 5th lowest BB% vs RHP in the last 30 days while chase outside the zone at an above average rate. With Boston using long relievers in recent days, Boston would love to get 6 or more innings out of their rising star pitcher.