Despite recent upward trends, Kyle Bradish's historical performance and matchups against the Blue Jays suggest he'll likely fall short of the 16.5 pitching-outs line in the upcoming game.

Pick: Kyle bradish under 16.5 outs -135

Baseball fans and sports bettors alike know that predicting a pitcher's performance can be tricky, but a thorough analysis of the numbers can provide some valuable insights. In this article, we'll break down why we believe Kyle Bradish will have fewer than 16.5 pitching-outs in the upcoming MLB game between the Baltimore Orioles and the Toronto Blue Jays.

First, let's look at Bradish's overall performance this season. He's averaging 14.45 pitching-outs per game, with higher numbers at home (16.25) compared to on the road (13.43). In total, he's had more than 16.5 pitching-outs in only 4 games, while falling under that mark in 7 games. These numbers alone paint a picture of a pitcher who's more likely to stay below the 16.5 line than exceed it.

However, we also need to consider recent trends. Over the last 20 games, Bradish's average pitching-outs remain at 14.45, with 4 games above 16.5. But when we narrow the focus to the last 10 games, his average increases to 15.4, with 4 games above 16.5. Even more impressively, his average jumps to 16.4 over the last 5 games, with 2 games above 16.5. Clearly, Bradish has been trending upwards lately, which could give bettors pause when considering the under on the 16.5 line.

However, we need to dig deeper into the specific matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays. Last season, Bradish faced the Jays multiple times and consistently gave up multiple runs in each game. The Blue Jays' batting lineup is known for its offensive prowess, and they'll likely put pressure on Bradish from the very beginning, making it difficult for him to rack up those crucial outs. 

When we combine Bradish's overall performance with his history against the Blue Jays, it becomes clear that his recent uptick in pitching-outs may not hold up in this matchup. While it's essential to acknowledge his improvement, it's also crucial to recognize that the Jays' lineup has the potential to disrupt his momentum and keep him from crossing the 16.5 pitching-outs threshold.

Good luck, and may the odds be in our favor!